新华社柏林9月25日电（记者李函林）作为欧洲经济"火车头"的德国，已连续两年陷入衰退。德国 政府近期大幅加码军工产业投资，以此为疲弱的国家经济注入强心针。 在政策引导下，德国军工产业迎来一波投资和扩张热潮。不过，专家提醒，防务投入对经济的拉升 作用有其局限性，难以成为经济复苏的主引擎。 2024年5月17日，一架飞机在位于柏林的德国科技博物馆航空展区展出。新华社记者任鹏飞摄 迎来历史机遇 长期依赖出口的德国经济近年来遭遇能源价格冲击、产业转型滞后等多重困难，下行趋势明显。德 国联邦统计局9月5日公布的数据显示，德国7月工业新订单环比下降2.9%，为连续第3个月下滑。慕尼 黑经济研究所等机构的秋季预测纷纷下调对2025年德国经济增长预期。 作为支柱产业，德国汽车制造业电动化转型迟缓，汽车销量持续下滑。宝马、奔驰、大众等主要车 企财报显示，2025年上半年车企利润普遍大幅下滑。美国出台高关税政策也严重冲击市场外部环境，今 年1月至7月德国对美出口顺差降至2021年以来同期最低水平。 在社会层面，二战后德国政界和民间普遍对军国主义保持警惕，对扩军增支争议颇大，这种氛围也 抑制了军工产业的发展速度。 不过，这种情况在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Germany, as the economic "locomotive" of Europe, has been in recession for two consecutive years, prompting the government to significantly increase investment in the defense industry to stimulate the weak economy [1][3]. Economic Context - Germany's economy, heavily reliant on exports, has faced multiple challenges including energy price shocks and slow industrial transformation, leading to a clear downward trend [3]. - The Federal Statistical Office reported a 2.9% month-on-month decline in new industrial orders in July, marking the third consecutive month of decline [3]. - Major automotive manufacturers like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen have reported significant profit declines for the first half of 2025 due to slow electrification and external pressures such as high tariffs from the U.S. [3]. - The German government has approved a total budget of €520.5 billion for the fiscal year 2026, with a defense budget of €82.7 billion, a 32% increase from the previous fiscal year [3]. Defense Industry Investment - The German defense ministry plans to submit over 60 orders by the end of 2025, including a new generation "European fighter jet" project with a budget of €3 to €5 billion and the "Puma" infantry fighting vehicle project costing around €10 billion [5]. - The defense industry is seen as a crucial component of Germany's economic resilience and is expected to play a significant role in economic recovery [5]. Industry Challenges - The German defense industry has been in a state of contraction since the end of the Cold War, with military spending as a percentage of GDP dropping from 2.5% in 1990 to 1.4% in 2020, leading to reduced production capacity and a loss of technical personnel [5]. - Germany remains competitive in traditional sectors like tank and submarine manufacturing but lags in emerging fields such as stealth fighters and drones due to lower R&D investment compared to other military powers [5]. Market Dynamics - Germany's military spending has increased for three consecutive years, making it the fourth-largest military spender globally in 2024 [8]. - Rheinmetall, a major defense manufacturer, has seen its stock price rise nearly 2000% over the past five years, with 80% of its revenue now coming from defense [8]. - Demand for products from ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, including submarines and frigates, has surged, with projected sales of approximately €2.1 billion for the 2023-2024 fiscal year, a 16.7% increase from the previous year [9]. Employment and Economic Impact - The German Employment Research Institute predicts that the upward trend in the defense industry will continue for years, potentially creating up to 200,000 jobs [13]. - However, some economists express caution regarding the potential of defense spending to significantly boost the economy, citing the need for government borrowing rather than tax increases to fund military expansion [15]. - The economic multiplier effect of military spending is relatively low, with estimates suggesting that every €1 spent on defense only generates about €0.50 in economic activity, compared to higher multipliers for infrastructure and education investments [16].