报告日期：2025 年 12 月 17 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 非农有喜有忧 美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国 11 月非农就业人口增加 6.4 万人，高于市 场预期的 5 万人；但失业率却意外升至 4.6%，创下 2021 年 9 月以来的新高。另 外，10 月非农就业大幅减少 10.5 万人，远超预期的下降 2.5 万人；8 月和 9 月 也合计下修 3.3 万人。美国财政部长贝森特表示，对美国经济前景表达乐观预期， 预计 2025 年全年 GDP 增速将达到 3.5%。 重点品种：原油，油脂，焦炭 原油：sc 夜盘下跌 2.24%。根据美国司机协会 AAA 的数据，在圣诞节前夕，美国 汽油价格已跌至每加仑 3 美元以下，达到了四年来的最低水平。美国石油学会数 据显示，上周美国原油库存减少、汽油和馏分油库存增长，截止到 2025 年 12 月 12 日当周，美国商业原油库存骤降 930 万桶；同期，美国汽油库存增加 480 万桶，馏分油库存增加 250 万桶；库欣地区原油库存减少 89 万桶。整体向下趋 势难改。 油脂：夜盘油脂继续下探，MPOB 发布本月供需报告，11 月马棕产量为 193. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese service industry sentiment index showed a strong recovery in October, reaching 49.1, significantly up from the previous value of 47.1, marking the highest level since March 2023 and exceeding market expectations of 47.6 [1] Economic Indicators - The household budget trend index also displayed positive changes, with retail and other service sectors' growth effectively offsetting declines in housing-related spending, leading to a stabilization in overall household consumption willingness [1] - The economic outlook index surged to 53.1 in October, up from 48.5, achieving the highest reading since July 2023, indicating a notable increase in confidence among businesses and households regarding future economic trends [1] Business Activity - Both manufacturing and other non-manufacturing sectors expanded simultaneously, driving an acceleration in the business trend index [1] - Employment conditions improved, reflecting a sustained recovery in labor market demand [1]

Group 1 - The overall business sentiment in Singapore has turned conservative, with the proportion of companies expecting economic deterioration rising from 22% in Q4 2024 to 40% in Q1 2025. The Business Sentiment Index (BSI) score is 56.5 [1] - The service industry shows the lowest sentiment, with the BSI score for the hotel, restaurant, and accommodation sector at 52.2, indicating significant pessimism across revenue expectations, profitability, expansion willingness, capital investment plans, and growth confidence [2] - Companies across various sectors anticipate rising costs, with the real estate and hotel sectors showing the highest cost expectation scores of 78.4 and 71.9, respectively [3] Group 2 - The financial and education sectors exhibit relatively optimistic sentiments, with BSI scores of 61.2 and 60.5, respectively. These sectors also lead in profit expectations and business expansion outlook [4] - A significant 52% of companies are actively pursuing digital transformation and process optimization, while 49% have initiated employee skill enhancement programs. However, challenges such as high technology application costs and staffing issues during training persist [5] - Liquidity and financing issues are critical, with 22% of companies facing moderate to high credit tightening. 35% of companies report cash flow may not sustain normal operations for 3 to 6 months, and 27% have sought financing in the past year, primarily for business expansion [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has lowered its economic and inflation outlook due to increasing uncertainties, particularly related to trade policies, but still expects potential inflation to gradually approach 2% in the latter half of the forecast period [1] Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan has adjusted its economic forecasts downward in response to rising uncertainties [1] - The central bank anticipates that potential inflation will move closer to 2% during the second half of the forecast period [1] Inflation Expectations - Despite the downward revision, the Bank of Japan maintains a positive outlook for inflation, expecting it to gradually align with the 2% target [1]