新华财经北京8月19日电 新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）将于本周三（8月20日）召开货币政策会议，大概率 将官方现金利率（OCR）下调25个基点至3%，标志着在7月短暂暂停后重启宽松周期。此次降息旨在应 对国内经济增长乏力及不确定性加剧的局面，同时也与全球主要央行的政策转向形成呼应。 机构共识强化降息预期 接受机构调查的23位经济学家中，22位预计新西兰联储将采取降息行动，仅1位认为维持利率不变。 新西兰联储在7月会议上选择按兵不动，以评估通胀走势及外部环境变化。然而，最新数据显示，新西 兰国内经济动能显著弱化，促使政策制定者转向宽松立场。 新西兰联储的政策重心正从抑制通胀转向刺激经济增长。该行首席经济学家康威近日表示，若物价压力 如预期持续缓解，央行准备进一步降息。他在惠灵顿的一次演讲中强调："如果中期通胀压力继续按我 们预期演变，我们认为存在进一步降息空间。"这一表态凸显了联储对经济下行风险的担忧。 数据显示，新西兰二季度年化CPI为2.7%，较一季度微升0.2个百分点，但仍连续四个季度处于1%-3%的 目标区间内。新西兰联储将短期通胀上行归因于食品价格和管理成本波动，认为这些因素具有暂时性， 而核心通胀持续 ...

新华社伦敦8月14日电（记者赵阳）英国国家统计局14日公布的数据显示，今年第二季度英国国内生产 总值环比增长0.3%，与第一季度环比增长0.7%相比明显放缓。 英国商会研究主管斯图尔特·莫里森认为，虽然二季度经济数据好于预期，但其掩盖了英国企业发展的 痛点。国内税收负担加剧以及全球贸易环境的不确定性在二季度给中小企业带来了极大挑战，英国经济 增长将持续乏力。 数据显示，建筑业成为推动英国经济增长的重要动力。第二季度，英国建筑业环比增长1.2%，服务业 环比增长0.4%，而制造业环比下降0.3%。 英国安永统计俱乐部报告认为，全球经济和国际贸易局势面临持续的不确定性、财政政策紧缩、劳动力 市场疲软以及高利率的滞后效应将拖累英国经济。该机构预计英国经济增长低迷的势头将持续到2027 年。 英国财政大臣蕾切尔·里夫斯表示，英国经济今年开局强劲，第二季度继续增长，但要让经济为劳动者 带来回报仍有很多工作要做。 ...

分析人士指出，全球经济背景尤其是中东地区的紧张局势加剧了油价波动，给英国央行决策带来了额外 挑战。摩根大通资产管理公司的全球市场分析师扎拉·诺克斯认为，当前的高通胀率仍然是一个令人不 安的因素，并警告称在有明确迹象表明劳动力市场降温能够有效抑制通胀前，央行应谨慎行事。 英国正面临地缘政治与外部风险的双重冲击。以色列与伊朗冲突导致油价单周飙升8.5%，直接推高英 国家庭能源账单和企业成本。英国央行虽认为关税冲击对全球GDP影响有限，但仍需警惕油价通过供应 链传导至核心通胀。服务业通胀（如工资-物价螺旋）和地缘政治风险（中东冲突推升油价）加剧了通 胀回落的不确定性。此外，就业市场持续降温（预算案后就业减少超25万）、薪资增长放缓、潜在GDP 增速疲弱（Q2预测仅0.25%），显示出经济下行压力加大。 新华财经北京6月20日电（崔凯）北京时间周四19:00，英国央行宣布将政策利率保持在4.25%的水平， 符合市场预期。尽管5月份数据显示物价上涨3.4%，远超央行设定的2%目标，货币政策委员会 （MPC）中的三位成员丁格拉、拉姆斯登和泰勒投票支持降息，这不仅显示了内部对于当前经济形势 的不同判断，也反映了"抗通胀优先 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's recent statement about potentially lowering tariffs on Chinese goods has sparked global attention, suggesting a possible shift in U.S.-China trade relations, but it may be a strategic maneuver rather than a genuine concession [2][4][6]. Group 1: Trump's Strategy - Trump's approach mirrors his business philosophy of creating panic to force concessions from opponents, applying this tactic to international negotiations [4]. - The proposed tariff reduction is contingent upon China agreeing to U.S. terms, indicating a demand for unilateral concessions from China [6]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments following Trump's statement reveal a strategy of using false promises to prolong pressure on China, suggesting a lack of genuine negotiation intent [6]. Group 2: Market Manipulation - Trump's administration is adept at using policy signals to manipulate market sentiment, with reports indicating significant profits for Trump's family during the period of tariff reduction discussions [8]. - This manipulation raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest, as favorable news is used to stimulate stock market gains before selling off shares [8]. Group 3: China's Response and Strategy - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasizes a commitment to equal, respectful, and mutually beneficial negotiations, rejecting any form of coercion [9]. - Historical lessons indicate that concessions to the U.S. do not yield goodwill, but rather encourage further demands [9]. - China's strategy involves exploiting U.S. economic weaknesses, particularly the current inflation and growth challenges, to gain leverage in negotiations [11]. Group 4: Economic Context - The U.S. faces significant economic challenges, including a 15% increase in consumer goods prices and a backlog of agricultural products, highlighting systemic issues within its economy [11]. - The Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates reflects a divergence in priorities between the U.S. government and financial interests, complicating economic recovery efforts [11]. Group 5: Strategic Measures - China plans to maintain pressure on U.S. supply chains through third-party channels and accelerate technological self-sufficiency to counter U.S. restrictions [13][14]. - Strengthening energy cooperation and reducing U.S. control over European energy markets are also key components of China's strategy [14]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The ongoing economic and political pressures in the U.S. suggest that the balance of negotiation power may shift increasingly in favor of China [19]. - China's comprehensive industrial capabilities and strategic initiatives position it favorably in the long-term economic competition with the U.S. [19].