Core Insights - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.4% from an earlier prediction of 1.9%, while also increasing inflation and unemployment rate forecasts [3] - The inflation rate is now expected to rise to 3.1%, up from the previous estimate of 2.2% [3] - The unemployment rate is projected to reach 4.5% by the fourth quarter of 2025, higher than the earlier forecast of 4.3% [3] Economic Conditions - Recent reports indicate that the U.S. economy may be entering an early stagflation phase, characterized by simultaneous economic growth slowdown and rising prices [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% in August, leading to an annual inflation rate of 2.9%, the highest level since January [7] - Initial jobless claims surged to a four-year high, with approximately 263,000 people filing for unemployment insurance in the week ending September 6 [7] Federal Reserve Response - Signs of stagflation are becoming increasingly evident, and the Federal Reserve currently lacks an ideal response strategy [9] - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a policy meeting on September 16, with market attention focused on potential interest rate cuts due to recent labor market weakness [9]

考虑到地缘政治的不确定性以及近期日元的强势，市场将密切关注日本央行行长植田和男在下午的新闻发布会上对未来加息路径的任何指导。知情人士上月 透露，日本央行官员认为，在等待更多数据分析关税影响的过程中，没有必要改变逐步加息的立场。 持续更新中..... 周四，日本央行全票一致通过利率政策决定，连续第二次会议将目标利率维持在0.50%不变，符合市场预期。 由于围绕美国关税的不确定性给这个世界第四大经济体的前景蒙上了阴影，日本央行下调了经济增长预测，2025-2026财年实际GDP增速预期中值分别为 0.5%、0.7%（1月份预期分别为1.1%、1.0%）。 与此同时，该央行预计通胀前景面临的风险偏向下行。其最新预测显示，2025-2026财年核心CPI预期中值分别为2.2%、1.7%（1月份预期为2.4%、2.0%）。 2025-2026财年核心-核心CPI预期中值分别为2.3%、1.8%（1月份预期分别为2.1%、2.1%）。 日本央行还称，如果经济和物价走势符合预期，将继续加息。这表明美国关税的风险可能会推迟而不是破坏其加息计划。 日本央行公布利率决议后，美元兑日元短线走高约50点，至143.34，日内跌幅达到 ...

Core Viewpoint - The German government has revised its economic forecast for 2025, predicting a stagnation instead of a growth of 0.3% [1] Economic Forecast - The government now expects the economy to slow down to stagnation rather than achieving a previously anticipated growth of 0.3% for this year [1] - For 2026, the projected economic growth rate is approximately 1%, which is slightly lower than the earlier forecast of 1.1% made in January [1] Government Response - The German Ministry of Economy declined to comment on these predictions and mentioned a press conference scheduled for Thursday [1]