Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is experiencing internal disagreements regarding the inflation outlook, which is impacting the euro's exchange rate against the US dollar [1] Group 1: ECB's Monetary Policy - The ECB's July meeting minutes reveal a split among officials about the inflation outlook, with some believing risks are skewed to the downside due to weak growth prospects and US tariffs [1] - Other officials warn that risks may still lean towards the upside, particularly due to uncertainties related to energy and exchange rate fluctuations [1] - The ECB maintained interest rates unchanged in July, marking the end of a year-long easing cycle with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate at 2.0% [1] Group 2: Euro to USD Exchange Rate - As of September 3, the euro is trading at approximately 1.1626 against the US dollar, reflecting a decline of 0.11% from the previous close of 1.1639 [1] - The euro's price action shows a convergence in volatility, with the Bollinger Bands indicating a middle band at 1.1625 and an upper band at 1.1782, suggesting a "gradual upward movement + high-level consolidation" structure [1] - The key resistance level for the euro is identified at the Bollinger upper band of 1.1782 and the previous high of 1.1829, with potential for repeated testing if a significant breakout does not occur [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: August 22, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View - Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump 2.0 new policies and concerns about US fiscal and financial discipline, with increased volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. London gold may trade in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. [4] - The restructuring of the international trade currency system and expectations of Fed rate cuts support the long - and medium - term bull markets of gold, but high price - to - earnings ratios increase price volatility. In the short term, London gold is expected to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. Central bank easing expectations may support silver prices in the medium - to - short term. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Allegations of mortgage fraud against Fed Governor Lisa Cook by the head of the US Federal Housing Finance Agency and Trump's call for her resignation, along with concerns about US fiscal and financial discipline, drove up London gold prices to around $3340 per ounce. However, the Fed's July meeting minutes limited the price increase. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, and it is expected to trade in a wide range before rising again. [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been trading in the range of $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The decline in international trade uncertainty weakens gold's safe - haven demand, while the restructuring of the international trade currency system and Fed rate - cut expectations support the price. The ratio of London gold to silver has stabilized after a correction. Gold's long - and medium - term bull markets are supported, but price volatility is increasing. London gold is expected to continue to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. Central bank easing expectations may support silver prices. [5] Domestic Precious Metals Market - The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 776.93, up 0.32%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9182, up 1.31%; Gold T + D closed at 771.66, up 0.24%; Silver T + D closed at 9144, up 1.35%. [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. [7][9][11] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, and Cook refused to resign under pressure. [17] - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers thought it appropriate to keep the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. [17] - Russia expects to continue supplying oil to India, and hopes to hold a tripartite meeting with India and China soon. [17]

Core Viewpoint - The current financial strain on middle and low-income consumers is likely to suppress their spending, which may mitigate the inflationary impact of tariffs [1] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - There are indications that consumers are more financially constrained than a few years ago, leading to potential reductions in consumption [1] - Consumers may accept price increases on essential goods but will likely respond by downgrading their consumption or delaying purchases in other areas [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - The inflation outlook is expected to be milder than previously anticipated, as consumers are no longer in a position of having ample cash and strong spending willingness as seen in 2022 [1] - By 2025, consumers are expected to feel financially tight, necessitating more careful budgeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to formulate monetary policy decisions based on specific assessments of inflation prospects and related risks at each meeting [1] Group 1 - The ECB emphasizes a data-driven approach to monetary policy, indicating that decisions will be made in response to the evolving economic landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest information aligns closely with the European Central Bank's previous assessment of the inflation outlook [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - The European Central Bank's evaluation of the inflation outlook remains consistent with prior assessments, indicating stability in their monetary policy approach [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, emphasized the importance of carefully assessing both downside and upside risks and how they influence inflation prospects through corporate wage and price-setting behavior [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is focusing on the impact of corporate actions on inflation [1] - There is a need for a thorough evaluation of risks associated with wage and price settings by companies [1] - The assessment will play a crucial role in shaping the future inflation outlook in Japan [1]

Core Insights - The central bank of Indonesia is aligning its interest rate decisions with the anticipated decline in inflation projections for 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 1 - The interest rate decisions are made in accordance with the expected gradual decrease in inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee will consider not only current data but also inflation outlook when making interest rate decisions [1] Group 1 - The focus on inflation prospects indicates a proactive approach to monetary policy [1] - Current data will still play a significant role in the decision-making process [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State has significant uncertainties, and Thailand has banned the transit transportation of tin mines from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin mines. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, the tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, Yunnan is facing a shortage of raw materials and high costs, while Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure, with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has declined, and the electronics industry has entered a slack season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, the tin price has fluctuated widely, with downstream buyers purchasing at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas inventory has continued to decline. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low - position in the open interest, and the price is adjusting widely within a range. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 262,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin is 266,720 yuan/ton, up 2,780 yuan; the closing price of the 3 - month LME tin is 33,565 US dollars/ton, up 115 US dollars. - The closing price of the August - September contract for Shanghai Tin is 20 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the main contract open interest for Shanghai Tin is 25,204 lots, up 1,054 lots. - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai Tin is 435 lots, down 467 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 1,970 tons, down 45 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,097 tons, down 101 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 570 tons, down 25 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,605 tons, down 26 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM1 tin spot price is 266,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,180 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 220 yuan/ton, down 2,980 yuan; the LME tin cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 251.8 US dollars/ton, down 274.01 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan. - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. - The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that US President Trump's newly announced tariff measures have muddled the inflation outlook again, making it more difficult for him to support Trump's strongly advocated interest - rate cut policy. - The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, the effects of the implemented monetary policies will further emerge, and in the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, pay close attention to and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to domestic and foreign economic and financial situations and financial market operations [3]. 3.7重点关注 Today, there is no important news [3].

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund's European Department Head, Kammer, suggests that the European Central Bank should maintain the key interest rate at 2% unless new shocks significantly alter the inflation outlook [1] Group 1 - The recommendation to keep the interest rate at 2% indicates a cautious approach to monetary policy in Europe [1] - The emphasis on waiting for substantial changes in the inflation outlook suggests a focus on stability and careful monitoring of economic indicators [1]