通胀前景

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贵金属日评-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:29
行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 宏观金融团队 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情: 美国联邦住房金融局局长举报美联储理事 Lisa Cook 涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈,特 朗普迅速表态要求 Cook 立即辞职,这是特朗普政府试图施压美联储降息的最新尝 试,也再次引发市场关于美国财政金融纪律的担忧,避险需求推动伦敦黄金反弹 至 3340 美元/盎司附近,但美联储 7 月议息会议纪要显示大部分决策官员更担忧 通胀前景限制金价涨幅。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局加速重组且进入乱纪 元模式,黄金的避险需求得到极大提振;目前看黄金波动性上 ...
美联储巴尔金:消费者财力吃紧削弱关税通胀效应
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 23:21
"那种认为(关税)成本必然转嫁导致通胀飙升的理论,必须经过消费者反应这一关的检验,"他表 示,"我认为消费者会接受某些刚需商品的价格上涨,但也必然会在其他领域通过降级消费或延迟购买 来抵制涨价。" 转自:新华财经 新华财经北京8月13日电 据华尔街日报报道,美联储巴尔金表示,当前有诸多迹象表明,中低收入消费 者比几年前更加捉襟见肘,这可能抑制其消费支出,从而减轻关税对通胀的推升作用。 谈及通胀前景时,巴尔金指出:"我们会看到一定通胀,但幅度将比预期温和,因为现在已非2022年 ——当时消费者手握充裕现金且消费意愿强烈。2025年的现实是,消费者感到财力吃紧,因此不得不精 打细算。" 编辑:马萌伟 ...
欧洲央行管委雷恩:我们将继续根据每次会议对通胀前景及其相关风险的具体评估来制定货币政策决定。
news flash· 2025-07-25 09:22
Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to formulate monetary policy decisions based on specific assessments of inflation prospects and related risks at each meeting [1] Group 1 - The ECB emphasizes a data-driven approach to monetary policy, indicating that decisions will be made in response to the evolving economic landscape [1]
欧洲央行:最新信息大致符合欧洲央行对通胀前景的先前评估。
news flash· 2025-07-24 12:20
Core Viewpoint - The latest information aligns closely with the European Central Bank's previous assessment of the inflation outlook [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - The European Central Bank's evaluation of the inflation outlook remains consistent with prior assessments, indicating stability in their monetary policy approach [1]
日本央行副行长内田真一:将审慎评估下行和上行风险如何通过企业的工资和价格设定行为影响我们的通胀前景。
news flash· 2025-07-23 01:43
Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, emphasized the importance of carefully assessing both downside and upside risks and how they influence inflation prospects through corporate wage and price-setting behavior [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is focusing on the impact of corporate actions on inflation [1] - There is a need for a thorough evaluation of risks associated with wage and price settings by companies [1] - The assessment will play a crucial role in shaping the future inflation outlook in Japan [1]
印尼央行行长:利率决策符合2025年、2026年通胀前景逐渐降低的预期。
news flash· 2025-07-16 07:36
Core Insights - The central bank of Indonesia is aligning its interest rate decisions with the anticipated decline in inflation projections for 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 1 - The interest rate decisions are made in accordance with the expected gradual decrease in inflation [1]
印度央行行长:货币政策委员会在决定利率时,将不仅关注当前数据,还会关注通胀前景。
news flash· 2025-07-15 10:40
Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee will consider not only current data but also inflation outlook when making interest rate decisions [1] Group 1 - The focus on inflation prospects indicates a proactive approach to monetary policy [1] - Current data will still play a significant role in the decision-making process [1]
瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250714
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 11:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State has significant uncertainties, and Thailand has banned the transit transportation of tin mines from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin mines. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, the tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, Yunnan is facing a shortage of raw materials and high costs, while Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure, with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has declined, and the electronics industry has entered a slack season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, the tin price has fluctuated widely, with downstream buyers purchasing at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas inventory has continued to decline. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low - position in the open interest, and the price is adjusting widely within a range. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 262,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin is 266,720 yuan/ton, up 2,780 yuan; the closing price of the 3 - month LME tin is 33,565 US dollars/ton, up 115 US dollars. - The closing price of the August - September contract for Shanghai Tin is 20 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the main contract open interest for Shanghai Tin is 25,204 lots, up 1,054 lots. - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai Tin is 435 lots, down 467 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 1,970 tons, down 45 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,097 tons, down 101 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 570 tons, down 25 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,605 tons, down 26 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM1 tin spot price is 266,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,180 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 220 yuan/ton, down 2,980 yuan; the LME tin cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 251.8 US dollars/ton, down 274.01 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan. - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. - The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that US President Trump's newly announced tariff measures have muddled the inflation outlook again, making it more difficult for him to support Trump's strongly advocated interest - rate cut policy. - The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, the effects of the implemented monetary policies will further emerge, and in the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, pay close attention to and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to domestic and foreign economic and financial situations and financial market operations [3]. 3.7重点关注 Today, there is no important news [3].
国际货币基金组织欧洲部门主管Kammer:欧洲央行应该将关键利率维持在2%,除非新的冲击实质性地改变通胀前景。
news flash· 2025-07-02 11:20
Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund's European Department Head, Kammer, suggests that the European Central Bank should maintain the key interest rate at 2% unless new shocks significantly alter the inflation outlook [1] Group 1 - The recommendation to keep the interest rate at 2% indicates a cautious approach to monetary policy in Europe [1] - The emphasis on waiting for substantial changes in the inflation outlook suggests a focus on stability and careful monitoring of economic indicators [1]
IMF:除非出现新的冲击,否则欧洲央行应将利率维持在2%
news flash· 2025-07-02 11:20
Core Viewpoint - The IMF suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) should maintain the deposit rate at 2% unless a significant shock alters the inflation outlook [1] Group 1: ECB's Interest Rate Policy - The ECB has reduced the interest rate by two percentage points since June 2024 and has indicated a pause in further cuts [1] - Financial investors anticipate that the ECB may lower the rate to 1.75% later this year [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - IMF's Alfred Kammer states that the inflation risks in the Eurozone are two-sided, supporting the argument for maintaining the current rate [1] - The IMF's inflation forecast for next year is higher than the ECB's expectations, contributing to the differing views between the IMF and market participants [1]