当地时间20日，南非储备银行（央行）宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至6.75%。 南非央行行长表示，此次决定主要基于更为乐观的通胀前景。（总台记者 赵祎楠） ...

Group 1 - The core inflation indicator aligns with the 2% target, but the inflation outlook is more uncertain than before, with a stronger euro potentially further reducing inflation [1] - Wage growth is expected to slow down in the first half of 2026 according to wage tracking indicators [1] - Some downside risks to economic growth have eased, with the US trade agreement and ceasefire helping to mitigate these risks; however, the global trade policy environment remains unstable [1]

Group 1 - South Africa's retail sales growth has significantly weakened as of August 2024, indicating short-term pressure on domestic consumption [1] - Retail sales increased by 3.2% year-on-year over the three months leading to August 2024, but the monthly data shows a notable slowdown with a 2.3% increase in August compared to a revised 5.7% in July [1] - August's retail sales also saw a month-on-month decline of 1.2%, ending a previous trend of growth, highlighting a potential softening in consumer demand [1] Group 2 - The year-on-year data is adjusted for inflation, reflecting actual sales volume changes, indicating that the slowdown is not driven by price fluctuations but by a substantial reduction in consumer purchasing behavior [1] - Analysts suggest that the rapid decline in monthly data from July's strong growth to August's downturn may signal a weakening willingness for household spending, influenced by high interest rates, pressure on the job market, and sluggish growth in disposable income [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell discussed the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy, emphasizing the Fed's ongoing efforts to maintain economic and financial stability while adapting policies based on economic conditions rather than preset paths [1][3]. Economic Outlook - Current data indicates that the employment and inflation outlook has not changed significantly since September, despite some delays in government data due to the shutdown [3][4]. - Economic activity growth may be more robust than previously expected, with the unemployment rate remaining low as of August, although non-farm employment growth has slowed [3][4]. - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with rising risks to employment, as evidenced by low levels of layoffs and hiring, alongside declining perceptions of job opportunities among residents and businesses [3][4]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate was 2.9% year-on-year as of August, slightly up from earlier in the year, primarily due to rising core goods prices [4]. - Short-term inflation expectations have increased this year, while most long-term inflation expectations remain aligned with the Fed's 2% target [4]. - The rising risks in the labor market have influenced the Fed's assessment of risk balance, leading to a more neutral policy stance being deemed appropriate [4]. Federal Reserve Operations - Powell indicated that the balance sheet reduction may conclude in the coming months, with the Fed aiming to ensure sufficient liquidity in the financial system to manage short-term interest rates and market volatility [1][3]. - The tightening liquidity conditions and rising repo rates have led to temporary liquidity pressures, highlighting the need for a flexible approach to the balance sheet based on experiences since 2020 [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is experiencing internal disagreements regarding the inflation outlook, which is impacting the euro's exchange rate against the US dollar [1] Group 1: ECB's Monetary Policy - The ECB's July meeting minutes reveal a split among officials about the inflation outlook, with some believing risks are skewed to the downside due to weak growth prospects and US tariffs [1] - Other officials warn that risks may still lean towards the upside, particularly due to uncertainties related to energy and exchange rate fluctuations [1] - The ECB maintained interest rates unchanged in July, marking the end of a year-long easing cycle with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate at 2.0% [1] Group 2: Euro to USD Exchange Rate - As of September 3, the euro is trading at approximately 1.1626 against the US dollar, reflecting a decline of 0.11% from the previous close of 1.1639 [1] - The euro's price action shows a convergence in volatility, with the Bollinger Bands indicating a middle band at 1.1625 and an upper band at 1.1782, suggesting a "gradual upward movement + high-level consolidation" structure [1] - The key resistance level for the euro is identified at the Bollinger upper band of 1.1782 and the previous high of 1.1829, with potential for repeated testing if a significant breakout does not occur [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: August 22, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View - Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump 2.0 new policies and concerns about US fiscal and financial discipline, with increased volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. London gold may trade in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. [4] - The restructuring of the international trade currency system and expectations of Fed rate cuts support the long - and medium - term bull markets of gold, but high price - to - earnings ratios increase price volatility. In the short term, London gold is expected to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. Central bank easing expectations may support silver prices in the medium - to - short term. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Allegations of mortgage fraud against Fed Governor Lisa Cook by the head of the US Federal Housing Finance Agency and Trump's call for her resignation, along with concerns about US fiscal and financial discipline, drove up London gold prices to around $3340 per ounce. However, the Fed's July meeting minutes limited the price increase. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, and it is expected to trade in a wide range before rising again. [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been trading in the range of $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The decline in international trade uncertainty weakens gold's safe - haven demand, while the restructuring of the international trade currency system and Fed rate - cut expectations support the price. The ratio of London gold to silver has stabilized after a correction. Gold's long - and medium - term bull markets are supported, but price volatility is increasing. London gold is expected to continue to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. Central bank easing expectations may support silver prices. [5] Domestic Precious Metals Market - The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 776.93, up 0.32%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9182, up 1.31%; Gold T + D closed at 771.66, up 0.24%; Silver T + D closed at 9144, up 1.35%. [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. [7][9][11] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, and Cook refused to resign under pressure. [17] - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers thought it appropriate to keep the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. [17] - Russia expects to continue supplying oil to India, and hopes to hold a tripartite meeting with India and China soon. [17]

Core Viewpoint - The current financial strain on middle and low-income consumers is likely to suppress their spending, which may mitigate the inflationary impact of tariffs [1] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - There are indications that consumers are more financially constrained than a few years ago, leading to potential reductions in consumption [1] - Consumers may accept price increases on essential goods but will likely respond by downgrading their consumption or delaying purchases in other areas [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - The inflation outlook is expected to be milder than previously anticipated, as consumers are no longer in a position of having ample cash and strong spending willingness as seen in 2022 [1] - By 2025, consumers are expected to feel financially tight, necessitating more careful budgeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to formulate monetary policy decisions based on specific assessments of inflation prospects and related risks at each meeting [1] Group 1 - The ECB emphasizes a data-driven approach to monetary policy, indicating that decisions will be made in response to the evolving economic landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest information aligns closely with the European Central Bank's previous assessment of the inflation outlook [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - The European Central Bank's evaluation of the inflation outlook remains consistent with prior assessments, indicating stability in their monetary policy approach [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, emphasized the importance of carefully assessing both downside and upside risks and how they influence inflation prospects through corporate wage and price-setting behavior [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is focusing on the impact of corporate actions on inflation [1] - There is a need for a thorough evaluation of risks associated with wage and price settings by companies [1] - The assessment will play a crucial role in shaping the future inflation outlook in Japan [1]