Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity for China to focus on development, particularly investing in human capital and new industries, to address both domestic and international challenges while achieving modernization goals [2][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Development Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" reiterates the importance of prioritizing economic construction, reflecting the changing domestic and international environments, including rising economic nationalism and trade protectionism [5][6]. - The plan aims for a per capita GDP of approximately $30,000 by 2035, indicating a significant growth target from the current level of over $13,000 [5]. - Development is seen as essential for addressing various issues, including livelihood, consumption, national defense, and social stability [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Direction - There is a shift in investment focus from material construction to human capital, emphasizing the need for more diverse economic activities and new industries [3][5]. - The article suggests that while maintaining a GDP growth rate of around 5% is necessary, the focus should be on nurturing new industries and innovative sectors [7][8]. - The potential for growth in service industries, such as AI, gaming, and innovative pharmaceuticals, is highlighted, indicating a need for regulatory adjustments to facilitate this growth [7][8]. Group 3: Regional Coordination and Development - The Greater Bay Area is identified as a crucial economic growth region, with a call for improved coordination among its cities to enhance industrial structure and competitiveness [10][11]. - Learning from the Yangtze River Delta's successful coordination mechanisms, the article advocates for a multi-layered collaborative approach among cities in the Greater Bay Area [10][11]. - The integration of strengths from different cities, such as Hong Kong's research capabilities and mainland China's application of technology, is seen as vital for creating a complete innovation chain [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market has crossed the 4000 mark, but there is still uncertainty about its future direction and stability [2][3] Market Performance - The stock market is expected to fluctuate around the 4000 level, with no strict control anticipated moving forward [3] - The market has shown signs of distrust, with some investors pulling back despite the recent milestone [2][3] Economic Context - The current economic situation remains challenging, particularly with consumer spending not meeting expectations, necessitating liquidity to stimulate activity [6] - The real estate market has seen a significant decline, with national housing prices dropping 36% over the past four years [5] Policy and Planning - Recent government proposals focus on addressing unreasonable restrictions in the housing market and promoting a new model for real estate development [4] - The upcoming five-year plan emphasizes economic construction as a priority, which will influence market narratives [8] Investor Sentiment - The market's core narrative is driven more by sentiment than by economic fundamentals, indicating a need for confidence to attract investment [8] - The expectation is that the market will stabilize around 4000, with potential for gradual increases, but volatility is a concern [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee's communiqué has a neutral short - term impact on the bond market. The bond market's volatile pattern remains unchanged. It's advisable to seize allocation and trading opportunities after adjustments [2][18]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is a long - term plan. It continues the economic development mainline in recent years, smoothly connects with the "14th Five - Year Plan", and the requirement for the annual economic target is consistent with the Politburo meeting in July [2]. - In the short term, the monetary policy maintains a supportive stance, the capital market is generally stable with low volatility, the broad - spectrum interest rate is still low, and it's difficult for pure - bond assets to generate significant returns. The bond market may remain volatile under various factors [2]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, the expectations of double - rate cuts were dashed, risk appetite increased, and new regulations were pending. The bond market fluctuated, with the 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond yields rising by 2bp and 1bp respectively [9]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" in the Fourth Plenary Session's communiqué is a long - term plan. It emphasizes strategic opportunities coexisting with risks, focuses on economic construction for high - quality development, and deploys 12 sub - tasks. The goal of achieving the annual economic and social development target requires a Q4 GDP growth rate of over 4.6% [10][13]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Capital Market - The central bank made a net injection of 1981 billion yuan this week, and capital interest rates rose. From October 20th to 24th, R001 and DR001 increased by 2bp and 0.3bp respectively compared to October 17th [22][23]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields fluctuated upward this week. All key - term Treasury bond yields rose, and most term spreads narrowed. As of October 24th, the 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond yields increased by 2bp and 1bp respectively compared to October 17th [30]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - This week, the 30Y Treasury bond turnover rate slightly declined, the 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread continued to narrow, the inter - bank leverage ratio dropped to 107.2%, and the exchange leverage ratio dropped to 122.3%. The median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds first rose and then fell, and the divergence increased [40]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased to 4972 billion yuan. The net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds rose, while that of policy - financial bonds decreased. The average issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rose to 1.65% [52][58]. 3.3 Economic Data - In the third quarter, the economic growth slowed, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in September was strengthened. Since October, automobile retail sales have been weak, while industrial production has continued to improve [62][63]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The US CPI in September declined, paving the way for interest - rate cuts. French and German bond markets fell, while emerging markets mostly rose. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury bond spread narrowed to 54bp [73][74]. 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - This week, the performance of major asset classes is as follows: crude oil > live pigs > Shanghai copper > CSI 1000 > CSI 300 > convertible bonds > US dollar > rebar > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > China bonds > Shanghai gold [3][79]. 3.6 Policy Review - Multiple financial regulatory departments held meetings to learn and implement the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, emphasizing risk prevention and support for economic development [82]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" has clear development goals and principles, and focuses on building a modern industrial system and other aspects [83][84][85].

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of technology and economic development in China's future planning, particularly in the context of the 15th Five-Year Plan [2][3][5] - The meeting highlighted the integration of technological innovation with the real economy as a primary direction for modernization [4][6] - The focus on high-quality development and self-reliance in technology is seen as crucial for achieving significant advancements in productivity and global competitiveness [7][8] Group 2 - The meeting reiterated the importance of economic construction, placing it at the forefront of the upcoming five-year plan, indicating its critical role in future policies [5][6] - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand and improving people's livelihoods suggests a shift towards long-term consumption growth rather than short-term stimulus measures [10][11] - Key areas for enhancing consumer spending include creating new job opportunities, improving social security, and investing in education and community services [11]

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes a strategic framework for advancing Chinese-style modernization and achieving high-quality development, focusing on the integration of technological innovation and the real economy, while addressing complex changes through a top-level design that balances development and security [3][4]. Economic Development - The meeting reiterates the importance of "centering on economic construction," highlighting its significance for the next five years, which indicates a strong focus on economic development [4][6]. - The goal of achieving "significant results in high-quality development" and improving the level of technological self-reliance is emphasized, with a commitment to maintaining a 5% economic growth target supported by macroeconomic policies [4][5]. Technological Innovation - Key terms in the communiqué include "industry" (8 times), "technological innovation" (6 times), and "security" (7 times), indicating a strong focus on technological self-reliance and innovation as primary objectives for the upcoming five-year plan [5][6]. - The need for original innovation and breakthroughs in key technologies is highlighted, suggesting increased investment and support in frontier technology fields to establish a leading advantage in global technological innovation [6][7]. Consumer and Social Welfare - The session stresses the importance of expanding domestic demand and integrating social welfare with consumption, indicating a long-term approach to nurturing consumption rather than short-term stimulus measures [7][8]. - Specific areas of focus for improving social welfare include enhancing social security coverage, improving public services, and promoting high-quality development in real estate, all aimed at addressing pressing public needs and enhancing overall living standards [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that economic construction has always been a priority for any nation, regardless of historical context or social system, and that the focus of economic development has shifted over different periods, particularly highlighting the foundational economic efforts in the early years of New China [1][10]. Summary by Sections Early Economic Construction - In 1949, the establishment of New China occurred in a state of devastation, with a population of approximately 540 million, an average life expectancy of just over 35 years, and an adult illiteracy rate exceeding 80% [4][5]. - The economy was primarily agrarian, with agriculture contributing over 81% to the national economy, and industrial output was extremely low, with steel production at only 135,000 tons [4][5]. - The initial focus was on developing basic infrastructure to lay the groundwork for future economic growth, despite facing significant challenges such as a lack of equipment and technology, as well as economic and technological blockades from Western countries [4][5]. Soviet Assistance and Industrial Development - Following the establishment of diplomatic relations, the Soviet Union provided assistance through loans and expertise, leading to the completion of 156 major construction projects during the First Five-Year Plan, which laid the foundation for China's industrial framework [5][6]. - The relationship with the Soviet Union was not without its challenges, as China had to repay debts and faced the withdrawal of Soviet support due to deteriorating relations [5]. Achievements in Economic Growth - Despite the initial focus on infrastructure, significant economic achievements were made from 1949 to 1978, with total agricultural and industrial output increasing from 46.6 billion yuan to 446.7 billion yuan, a nearly tenfold increase [12][14]. - Key indicators showed remarkable growth: steel production surged from 135,000 tons to 2.39 million tons, and electricity generation increased from 4.3 billion kWh to 195.8 billion kWh, reflecting a growth of over 45 times [12][14]. - The average annual growth rate of GDP during this period was 8.43%, with stable prices, indicating a solid economic foundation was being built [12][14]. Comparative International Performance - By 1978, the economic gap between China and the United States had narrowed from 28 times to 5.52 times, showcasing a significant reduction in disparity [10][12]. - China's agricultural growth rate averaged 4.0%, outperforming the United States, the Soviet Union, and Japan, while industrial growth averaged 12.5%, also exceeding the growth rates of these countries [14]. Conclusion on Economic Foundations - The article concludes that the early years of economic construction were crucial for establishing a solid foundation, which later facilitated rapid economic growth and development, contradicting any notion that these efforts were insignificant [10][14].

Core Viewpoint - The New Fourth Army's Seventh Division demonstrated remarkable economic resilience and growth during the difficult period of the Anti-Japanese War, becoming a financially strong and well-equipped military unit despite the overall economic hardships faced by other divisions [3][6][10]. Economic Conditions - The Seventh Division was able to generate significant financial resources, with its revenue exceeding 24 million yuan in 1943 and rising to 60 million yuan by 1944, while also providing substantial support to the military headquarters [6][12]. - In contrast, the New Fourth Army faced severe funding cuts from the Nationalist government, with monthly military expenses drastically reduced from 166,000 yuan to as low as 65,000 yuan, highlighting the financial struggles of other units [3][4]. Leadership and Strategy - Key figures such as Zeng Xisheng and Cai Hui played crucial roles in the economic development of the Seventh Division, implementing effective strategies that transformed the division from a poorly funded unit to one of the most prosperous in the region [8][12]. - Zeng Xisheng's leadership and strategic vision were instrumental in establishing the division's economic independence and resilience against multiple enemy forces [10][12]. Military Transformation - The Seventh Division evolved from a "strategic maneuvering force" to a main combat unit, significantly enhancing its military capabilities and equipment, which included acquiring Japanese-style weaponry [5][12]. - The division's growth in personnel from a few thousand to over 30,000, along with the establishment of local militia forces, underscored its transformation into a formidable military presence [12]. Economic Initiatives - The establishment of the Dajiang Bank and the issuance of Dajiang currency helped to bolster the local economy and reduce reliance on enemy-controlled currencies, further solidifying the division's financial stability [13]. - Initiatives such as providing interest-free loans to local farmers contributed to the economic vitality of the region, demonstrating the division's commitment to local development [13].