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结构性货币政策利率调降
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经济动态跟踪:政策前奏:三条主线
Minsheng Securities· 2025-04-06 23:40
Policy Overview - The current market's core conflict has shifted to the struggle between economic downturn and policy countermeasures, with a focus on stabilizing the stock market as a macroeconomic indicator[3] - The political bureau meeting at the end of April is expected to set the tone for new reserve policies[3] Currency Stability - The exchange rate's bottom line is expected to remain unbroken, serving as a stabilizing anchor for the market, with a critical level of 7.35 (USD/CNY) to be defended[3][4] - A depreciation of the RMB is seen as more harmful than beneficial, potentially exacerbating capital outflow risks[3] Monetary Policy Adjustments - A reduction in reserve requirements (RRR) is anticipated to occur before interest rate cuts, with structural monetary policy tools being prioritized[5] - The focus on structural monetary policy is to support low-cost funding in key consumption areas while maintaining exchange rate stability[5] Consumption Focus - Increasing service consumption is identified as a priority policy option, as traditional investment potential is diminishing[5] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to better guide market expectations compared to traditional investment stimuli[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, fluctuations in exports, and unforeseen U.S. trade policies[5]
政策前奏:三条主线(民生宏观陶川团队)
川阅全球宏观· 2025-04-06 16:04
作者: 陶川 张云杰 钟渝梅 一方面,当前环境下人民币贬值"弊大于利"。 面对高额关税,人民币贬值对冲外贸的效果微乎其微,反而可能加剧资金外流的风险。从 近年经验来看, 7.35 (美元兑人民币)或是需要"坚守"的底线。 另一方面,人民币贬值也与我国"捍卫多边主义"的基调不符。 近年来,其他主要亚洲货币基本"锚定"人民币汇率波动。若人民币"失 守",可能引起其他经济体的"竞争性"贬值,对稳定市场、构建反制同盟等均有不利影响。 其次,降准或快于降息,辅之于结构性货币政策利率调降。 为什么降准优先于降息? 从 2023 年以来的历次操作来看,降准开始更多承载稳定市场的功能。尤其在 2024 年 12 月政治局会议上,首次 将"稳住楼市股市"作为经济工作的重点任务。 考虑到关税已落地、二季度政府债供给压力上行等,预计降准将先行落地以对冲市场下 跌。 如我们上篇报告《 关税风暴:政策对冲的经济账 》所述,随着关税风险的兑现, 当前市场的核心矛盾已转化为经济下行和政策对冲的角 力。 打铁还需自身硬,清明假期最后一天官媒的发声,表明决策层已经就应对冲击做好了各种预案, 我们预计 4 月底的政治局会议将给 增量的储备政策定 ...