Core Insights - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the renewable energy sector, highlighting the stability of hydropower business models and the increasing value of green electricity in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - The assessment indicates a tightening of green electricity consumption requirements for key industries, which is expected to enhance the market value of green electricity [4][12] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality A/H share renewable energy operators with stable profitability as potential investment targets [30] Group 1: Renewable Energy Consumption Assessment - The National Development and Reform Commission has expanded the scope of renewable energy consumption assessments, tightening requirements for industries such as steel, polysilicon, and cement, with specific targets set for 2025 and 2026 [4][12][19] - The actual consumption responsibility weight for renewable energy in 2025 has increased compared to the expected targets for 2024, with an average increase of 1.77 percentage points for total consumption and 2.48 percentage points for non-hydropower consumption [17][18] Group 2: Green Certificate Market Dynamics - The supply of green certificates is expected to contract, with a significant inventory clearance anticipated by the end of 2025, which may lead to an increase in the market price of green certificates [5][21][22] - The average price of green certificates has shown a significant increase, with a 63.24% rise in April 2024 and an 18.12% increase in May 2025, indicating a recovering market [25][26] - The narrowing supply-demand gap for green certificates is projected to enhance the environmental value returns for operators, with a potential increase in revenue per megawatt-hour as the coverage rate improves [5][27] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on renewable energy operators with strong asset quality and stable profitability, listing specific companies such as Longyuan Power, Xintian Green Energy, and Datang Renewable Power as beneficiaries of the evolving market dynamics [30][31]

行 业 研 究 2025 年 05 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 电力 沪深300 相关研究报告 《电力供需转向宽松，重视盈利稳定 品种—电力行业 2025 中期投资策略》 -2025.5.7 《电力供需转向宽松，重视盈利稳定 品种—行业投资策略》-2025.5.6 《政策助力预期企稳，静待绿电触底 回升—行业投资策略》-2025.2.19 高耗能行业绿电消纳要求有望提振绿电环境价值 ——行业投资策略 周磊（分析师） zhoulei1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524090002 发改委首次全面提出高耗能行业绿电消费比例要求，有望激发绿证市场活力 2025 年 3 月，发改委发布《关于促进可再生能源绿色电力证书市场高质量发展 的意见》，首次全面提出行业绿电消费比例要求，加快提升钢铁、有色、建材、 石化、化工等行业企业和数据中心，以及其他重点用能单位和行业的绿色电力消 费比例，到 2030 年原则上不低于全国可再生能源电力总量消纳责任权重平均水 平；国家枢纽节点新建数据中心绿 ...

行 业 研 究 2025 年 05 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 电力 沪深300 相关研究报告 《电力供需转向宽松，重视盈利稳定 品种—电力行业 2025 中期投资策略》 -2025.5.7 《电力供需转向宽松，重视盈利稳定 品种—行业投资策略》-2025.5.6 《政策助力预期企稳，静待绿电触底 回升—行业投资策略》-2025.2.19 高耗能行业绿电消纳要求有望提振绿电环境价值 ——行业投资策略 周磊（分析师） zhoulei1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524090002 发改委首次全面提出高耗能行业绿电消费比例要求，有望激发绿证市场活力 2025 年 3 月，发改委发布《关于促进可再生能源绿色电力证书市场高质量发展 的意见》，首次全面提出行业绿电消费比例要求，加快提升钢铁、有色、建材、 石化、化工等行业企业和数据中心，以及其他重点用能单位和行业的绿色电力消 费比例，到 2030 年原则上不低于全国可再生能源电力总量消纳责任权重平均水 平；国家枢纽节点新建数据中心绿 ...