丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨环保 [Table_Title] 双碳跟踪：钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼配额方案正 式印发，化工等行业扩围准备中 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 11 月 17 日，生态环境部印发《2024、2025 年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、 铝冶炼行业配额总量和分配方案》，《方案》聚焦生产过程直接碳排放，自 2025 年起实施碳排 放强度控制思路，核心管控单位产品碳排放。后续碳市场扩围将持续进行，配额分配机制预计 逐步收紧，利于绿证、CCER 需求扩张，看好绿证需求上行带来垃圾焚烧企业现金流改善；看 好绿色燃料替代逻辑。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SAC：S0490525070006 SFC：BUV415 徐科 贾少波 李博文 盛意 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 双碳跟踪：钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼配额方案正式印 2] 发，化工等行业扩围准备中 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the shipping industry, focusing on the impact of new environmental regulations such as the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the FuelEU Maritime regulation on fuel costs and operational expenses for ships [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Regulatory Impact**: The EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime regulations significantly increase operational costs for shipping companies by imposing taxes on greenhouse gas emissions, including CO2, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) [1][2]. - **Cost Projections**: From 2028 to 2040, total operational costs for the shipping industry are expected to rise from $640 million to $1.59 billion, with GFI penalties being the largest contributor to this increase [2][17]. - **Green Fuel Transition**: The shipping industry is encouraged to transition to green alternative fuels, such as biomass methanol, to comply with regulations and reduce costs. Biomass methanol can meet GFI requirements and potentially lower operational costs compared to traditional fossil fuels [1][10][12]. - **Economic Viability of Green Fuels**: For biomass methanol to be competitive, its price needs to be reduced to $600-$800 per ton, considering the current market price of low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) is around $400 per ton [18][19]. - **Compliance Strategies**: Shipping companies are advised to invest in energy efficiency technologies and optimize routes to reduce emissions and the need to purchase EUAs (Emissions Trading Allowances) [4][5]. Additional Important Content - **GFI Compliance**: The GFI (Greenhouse Gas Fuel Index) will assess compliance based on the fuel type and quantity used by ships, with penalties for exceeding set limits. The basic target for GFI in 2028 is set at 89.57, with compliance penalties for values above this threshold [9][10]. - **Long-term Fuel Strategy**: The shipping industry is expected to increasingly adopt alternative fuels, with LNG having a temporary compliance advantage until 2032, after which it will face higher penalties [11][14]. - **Future Regulations**: The IMO's net-zero framework is anticipated to be implemented in 2028, which will further push the industry towards sustainable practices and may increase operational costs due to stricter compliance requirements [8][20][21]. - **Market Dynamics**: The demand for green fuels will depend on regulatory compliance and economic factors, with a potential increase in the use of alternative fuels as their prices decrease and supply increases [24]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call regarding the shipping industry's transition to greener fuels and the implications of new environmental regulations on operational costs and compliance strategies.