丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨环保 [Table_Title] 双碳跟踪：钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼配额方案正 式印发，化工等行业扩围准备中 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 11 月 17 日，生态环境部印发《2024、2025 年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、 铝冶炼行业配额总量和分配方案》，《方案》聚焦生产过程直接碳排放，自 2025 年起实施碳排 放强度控制思路，核心管控单位产品碳排放。后续碳市场扩围将持续进行，配额分配机制预计 逐步收紧，利于绿证、CCER 需求扩张，看好绿证需求上行带来垃圾焚烧企业现金流改善；看 好绿色燃料替代逻辑。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SAC：S0490525070006 SFC：BUV415 徐科 贾少波 李博文 盛意 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 双碳跟踪：钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼配额方案正式印 2] 发，化工等行业扩围准备中 ...

Core Insights - The transition to a green economy is a core direction for high-quality development in China, driven by the "dual carbon" goals, with financial institutions positioned as key players in this transformation [1][2] Green Finance Market - China's green finance market is experiencing rapid growth, with green credit reaching a new scale of 6.52 trillion yuan in 2024, and total outstanding loans exceeding 35 trillion yuan [2] - The green bond market is also active, with 477 products issued in 2024, totaling approximately 244.19 billion yuan, and cumulative issuance surpassing 4.16 trillion yuan [2] - The carbon market, however, is lagging, with carbon emission allowances (CEA) trading volume at 18.9 million tons and transaction value at 18.114 billion yuan, indicating a need for market activation [2] Role of Securities Companies - Securities companies are crucial participants in the green finance ecosystem, acting as connectors and innovators, particularly in the green bond sector where they underwrote 167.405 billion yuan of green bonds, accounting for 24.57% of total issuance [3] - They are also exploring carbon market participation, with 16 firms qualified for carbon trading, and are developing innovative products like green financial derivatives and sustainable asset-backed securities [3][4] CCER Market Participation - Securities firms are at an early stage in the CCER market, focusing on voluntary carbon emission reductions, which are essential for China's climate governance and future carbon market dynamics [4][5] - The CCER market has seen the introduction of six methodologies and public consultations for new methodologies, expanding the scope for project development across various sectors [5][6] Pathways for Securities Firms in CCER - Securities companies can engage in CCER through three main pathways: 1. Establishing proprietary trading and carbon asset management to capture market opportunities [6] 2. Innovating carbon financial derivatives to enhance market liquidity [7] 3. Directly participating in CCER project development to provide comprehensive services [8] International Integration and Long-term Value - The development of CCER projects aligns with China's transition from carbon peak to carbon neutrality, with potential for significant market activity post-peak [10] - There is a growing emphasis on aligning CCER with international carbon standards, particularly with the EU, which could enhance the value of domestic carbon assets significantly [10][11] Conclusion - Securities companies play a vital role in activating the CCER market and supporting the broader green finance landscape, with strategies focused on immediate market engagement and long-term international integration [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the national carbon emissions trading market are normal and influenced by multiple factors, including supply and demand, market expectations, and trading behavior [3] Group 1: Carbon Market Developments - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to expand the coverage of the carbon market, prioritizing total quota control in stable carbon emission industries by 2027 [4] - The inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum industries in the carbon market aims to enhance emission reduction responsibilities and support national greenhouse gas emission control goals [4][5] - The carbon market has already reduced overall emission reduction costs by approximately 35 billion RMB during the first two compliance periods, with further reductions expected as more industries participate [5][6] Group 2: CCER Market Progress - As of October 28, the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market has registered 31 projects and achieved a cumulative transaction volume of 3.25 million tons of CCER, with a transaction value of 27 million RMB [7] - The CCER market is expanding its support to various projects, including afforestation carbon sinks and offshore wind power, with ongoing efforts to develop new methodologies [8] - Future efforts will focus on expanding market support areas, improving data quality supervision, and enhancing international cooperation to increase the carbon market's global influence [8]

Core Insights - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" marks a new phase in the development of China's carbon market, emphasizing its role as a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and facilitating a comprehensive green transition in economic and social development [1][5]. Group 1: Carbon Market Development - The national carbon market has completed three compliance cycles, with a cumulative trading volume of 680 million tons and a transaction value of 47.41 billion RMB as of August 22, 2025, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1]. - The carbon market will expand to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries starting in 2024, increasing the number of covered enterprises to approximately 3,600 and the annual carbon dioxide emissions covered to 800 million tons, which accounts for over 60% of the national total [2]. Group 2: Compliance and Emission Reduction - Power generation companies have shown a strong commitment to compliance, achieving a compliance rate of 99.98% in the third compliance cycle, reflecting a significant improvement in their awareness and management of carbon emissions [3][4]. - The carbon emissions per unit of electricity generated in the power sector have decreased by 12.1% from 2018 to 2024, demonstrating the effectiveness of the carbon market in promoting emission reductions [4]. Group 3: Transition in Carbon Allocation Mechanism - The shift from intensity-based control to total emissions control, along with the introduction of a mixed allocation method of free and paid carbon quotas, is expected to enhance the market's regulatory power and better reflect the actual costs of emissions for enterprises [5][6]. - This new allocation mechanism is anticipated to create a scarcity value for carbon quotas, encouraging companies to transition from passive compliance to proactive emission reduction strategies [7]. Group 4: Financial Mechanisms and Market Liquidity - The development of carbon finance is highlighted as a key mechanism for supporting green and low-carbon projects, with the potential to reduce economic risks for compliance enterprises and enhance the carbon price formation mechanism [11]. - The carbon market's turnover rate is projected to increase from 2.0% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024, driven by policy adjustments such as the reduction of compliance cycles and the introduction of quota rollover mechanisms [12]. Group 5: Future Opportunities and Challenges - The tightening of quota benchmarks and rising carbon prices may increase compliance costs for power generation companies, leading to potential market imbalances and heightened financial risks [8]. - Companies are advised to adopt diversified carbon asset development strategies, including participation in green electricity and carbon credit projects, to mitigate risks and enhance long-term profitability [10].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing is making significant progress in establishing itself as an international benchmark city for green economy, with notable achievements in green technology innovation and the development of green industries [2][3]. Group 1: Green Technology Innovation - The number of effective green technology invention patents in Beijing has reached 67,000, with an annual growth rate of 14.6% [2][3]. - The establishment of the National Green Technology Trading Center aims to create a comprehensive service platform for green technology transactions, linking domestic and global markets [2][3]. Group 2: Green Industry Development - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Beijing has exceeded 50%, with over 1.19 million vehicles, nearly three times the number at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3]. - Green electricity utilization has seen significant growth, accounting for nearly 30% of total electricity consumption, with approximately one-third of electricity being green [3][4]. Group 3: Financial Support for Green Development - The balance of green loans in Beijing has reached nearly 2.4 trillion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of green bonds by non-financial enterprises has exceeded 910 billion yuan [4]. - The trading of voluntary carbon emission reduction credits (CCER) has commenced, with a total transaction volume of 2.71 million tons and a transaction value of 230 million yuan as of August [4]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives for Green Economy - Beijing is focusing on five key areas: green technology innovation, green industry cultivation, green livable city construction, green cultural nurturing, and green cooperative development [5][6]. - Various districts in Beijing are implementing tailored strategies to promote the clustering and specialization of green industries, such as the establishment of a sustainable protein research center and the development of a green technology innovation service industrial park [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, as the only state-controlled green energy generation enterprise in Xinjiang, is positioned to leverage unique advantages in the context of recent national policies aimed at promoting green and low-carbon transformation and strengthening the national carbon market [1] Group 1: Unique Advantages - The company benefits from abundant wind and solar resources in Xinjiang, receiving preferential support in project approval, land permits, and grid access as a state-owned enterprise [1] - The company enjoys policy advantages from initiatives like "Western Development" and "Silk Road Economic Belt," including tax exemptions, green electricity subsidies, and favorable green financing, having successfully issued green asset-backed securities for clean energy infrastructure [1] - The company plays a significant role in the national strategy for energy transition, being a key participant in major "Xinjiang Power Transmission" projects, which are crucial for local government energy transformation and optimization [1] Group 2: Carbon Market Engagement - The company is actively participating in the national carbon market quota trading and is exploring a sales model combining "green electricity + green certificates + CCER," aiming for 68.59 million kilowatt-hours of green electricity trading and 1.2269 million green certificate transactions by 2025 [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company anticipates over 3 million yuan in revenue from green certificate trading, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 150% [1] - The company plans to enhance market policy research, monitor provincial electricity market trends, and expand its customer base while actively engaging in electricity sales agreements with large users and trading in green electricity, green certificates, and carbon derivatives [1]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading system is a crucial task for enhancing China's green low-carbon development mechanism, creating significant market opportunities, and promoting the implementation of national contributions to global climate governance [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy and Guidelines - The Central Committee and the State Council emphasize the importance of building a national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market as part of the national carbon market system [2][3]. - The "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transformation and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" serves as a specific requirement and action guide for implementing Xi Jinping's ecological civilization thought [1][3]. - The national voluntary emission reduction trading market aims to be more effective, vibrant, and internationally influential, with clear goals set by Xi Jinping [2][3]. Group 2: Progress and Implementation - The national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market is set to launch in January 2024, with significant progress already made [4]. - A policy and regulatory framework has been established, including the "Management Measures for Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading (Trial)" and various supporting normative documents [5]. - The registration and trading systems for the voluntary emission reduction market have been successfully developed and are operational [6]. Group 3: Market Development and Methodology - A methodology system is being constructed to support the trading market, focusing on key areas for carbon peak and neutrality, and integrating international rules [8]. - The market is expected to expand its trading products and participants, enhancing the CCER price discovery mechanism and creating more demand for CCER [9]. Group 4: Regulatory and International Cooperation - A joint regulatory mechanism is being established to ensure high-quality CCER market supply and to prevent systemic risks [9]. - The market aims to engage in international cooperation, promoting China's green low-carbon technologies and aligning with international mechanisms [9].

Core Insights - The carbon market in China is increasingly important as a key policy tool in achieving the dual carbon goals, with significant developments over the past 20 years [1] - The national carbon market has established a stable institutional framework, with a cumulative trading volume of nearly 700 million tons and a trading value of approximately 48 billion yuan as of the end of August [1][2] - The market is undergoing a critical transformation with the inclusion of additional high-emission industries and the introduction of innovative trading mechanisms [2][4] Group 1: Market Development - The national carbon market officially started trading on July 16, 2021, and has since shown a steady increase in compliance rates, maintaining above 99% over the last three compliance cycles [1] - The market has implemented three main mechanisms to promote emissions reduction: imposing pressure on high-emission enterprises through carbon quotas, quantifying emission reduction benefits for trading, and establishing carbon pricing to guide investments into green sectors [2][3] Group 2: Future Outlook - By 2027, the national carbon market aims to cover all major industrial sectors and transition from intensity control to total control, with a gradual increase in paid allocation [4] - The voluntary carbon market (CCER) is expected to face high-quality project requirements and will need to enhance trading volume, as current supply is significantly lower than theoretical demand [3][5] - To enhance market vitality, the introduction of diverse carbon financial products and the expansion of trading participants, including financial institutions and individuals, is essential [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The expansion of the CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) market is expected to benefit agricultural and forestry biomass, while the EU's Circular Economy Act emphasizes the importance of recycling resources [1][10] - The report highlights the potential for increased cash flow and profitability in the waste-to-energy sector as capital expenditures decline, similar to trends observed in the waste incineration industry [19][23] - The report suggests that the water services sector is approaching a cash flow inflection point, positioning it as the next growth area akin to waste incineration [23][24] Summary by Sections CCER Methodology and Market Expansion - The third batch of CCER methodologies focuses on agricultural biomass and methane reduction from oil and gas, indicating a growing supply and demand in the carbon market [8][10] - The average price of CCER has been reported at 89 RMB/ton, showing a premium over carbon allowances, reflecting tight supply conditions [10][12] EU Circular Economy Act - The EU is seeking public opinion on the Circular Economy Act, which aims to enhance the value of recycled materials and impose stricter regulations on waste management and recycling [15][16] - Key objectives include improving electronic waste collection and recycling rates, and extending producer responsibility for product lifecycle management [16][18] Waste-to-Energy Sector - The report notes a significant improvement in free cash flow for waste-to-energy companies as capital expenditures decrease, with projected dividend increases for major players [20][21] - The sector is expected to see a shift towards higher dividends and improved return on equity (ROE) as companies optimize operations and reduce costs [21][22] Water Services Sector - The water services market is anticipated to experience a cash flow boost as capital expenditures decline, with companies like Xingrong Environment and Yuehai Investment highlighted for their strong dividend potential [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of water pricing reforms in ensuring sustainable growth and returns for water service providers [24][25] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Guangda Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Green Power for their strong market positions and growth potential in the environmental sector [1][19][25]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **real estate industry** and its recovery, along with insights into the **construction** and **metals** sectors, particularly focusing on **small metals** and **T metals**. Real Estate Industry Insights - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through supply-side measures such as controlling new land supply and revitalizing existing land and properties, with a focus on acquiring existing residential properties. A total of **4.4 trillion yuan** in special bonds will be issued, an increase of **500 billion yuan** from last year, with **500 billion yuan** allocated for land acquisition and existing property purchases [2][3]. - In January and February, key cities saw new home transaction areas increase by **5%** and second-hand home transactions rise by **29%**, indicating a recovery trend from the previous year [3][4]. - Future development directions in the real estate sector include focusing on core city developers and property management companies, as well as quality commercial real estate firms benefiting from domestic demand policies [5]. New City Holdings (新城控股) Analysis - New City Holdings has a strong financial position with **558 billion yuan** in interest-bearing debt, manageable through rental income from shopping malls, indicating controlled debt pressure [6][9]. - The company has a competitive edge in third and fourth-tier cities, with its May Square showing a **11%** increase in same-store rental growth and a high occupancy rate of **97.9%** [6][11]. - The company’s light-asset construction and management business is expected to grow significantly, with a **63%** increase in rental income from May Square [12]. Construction Industry Insights - The government’s fiscal policy is set to increase special bond issuance to **14.4 trillion yuan**, focusing on major projects, which will stimulate the construction industry and related sectors like steel and cement [7][8]. - Investment opportunities in the construction sector are identified in infrastructure and supply-side reforms, recommending major state-owned enterprises and companies involved in technological upgrades and high-energy acquisitions [8]. Metals Market Insights - The small metals market is experiencing a significant supply-demand gap, currently at **20%**, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains. Prices are expected to continue rising [14]. - T metals face severe supply constraints, with a potential **70%** drop in output from a major Russian mine, leading to a projected **20%** increase in demand across various sectors, including military and renewable energy [15][16]. - Current prices for T metals have reached **420,000 yuan/ton**, with expectations for further increases due to persistent supply shortages [17]. Additional Insights - The bio-aviation fuel sector is projected to see rapid growth, driven by mandatory blending requirements in Europe and China, with significant demand expected by **2025** [22][24]. - Companies in the biofuel sector, such as Jia Environmental and Excellence Performance, are highlighted for their growth potential and cost advantages in production [26][27][29]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the real estate, construction, and metals industries, along with specific company analyses and market trends.