Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The expansion of the CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) market is expected to benefit agricultural and forestry biomass, while the EU's Circular Economy Act emphasizes the importance of recycling resources [1][10] - The report highlights the potential for increased cash flow and profitability in the waste-to-energy sector as capital expenditures decline, similar to trends observed in the waste incineration industry [19][23] - The report suggests that the water services sector is approaching a cash flow inflection point, positioning it as the next growth area akin to waste incineration [23][24] Summary by Sections CCER Methodology and Market Expansion - The third batch of CCER methodologies focuses on agricultural biomass and methane reduction from oil and gas, indicating a growing supply and demand in the carbon market [8][10] - The average price of CCER has been reported at 89 RMB/ton, showing a premium over carbon allowances, reflecting tight supply conditions [10][12] EU Circular Economy Act - The EU is seeking public opinion on the Circular Economy Act, which aims to enhance the value of recycled materials and impose stricter regulations on waste management and recycling [15][16] - Key objectives include improving electronic waste collection and recycling rates, and extending producer responsibility for product lifecycle management [16][18] Waste-to-Energy Sector - The report notes a significant improvement in free cash flow for waste-to-energy companies as capital expenditures decrease, with projected dividend increases for major players [20][21] - The sector is expected to see a shift towards higher dividends and improved return on equity (ROE) as companies optimize operations and reduce costs [21][22] Water Services Sector - The water services market is anticipated to experience a cash flow boost as capital expenditures decline, with companies like Xingrong Environment and Yuehai Investment highlighted for their strong dividend potential [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of water pricing reforms in ensuring sustainable growth and returns for water service providers [24][25] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Guangda Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Green Power for their strong market positions and growth potential in the environmental sector [1][19][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Increase" which indicates a relative increase of more than 15% compared to the CSI 300 index [28] Core Insights - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the high-quality development of the marine economy and the exploration of marine carbon sink accounting [8] - The first international standard for algal carbon footprint has been officially released, marking a breakthrough in carbon footprint standards [8] - The national carbon market is expanding beyond the power sector, increasing the demand for CCER (Voluntary Carbon Emission Reduction) [9] - New methodologies for CCER are expected to accelerate expansion, including projects related to low-concentration gas utilization in coal mines and energy-saving in highway tunnel lighting [10] Summary by Sections Weekly Investment Perspective - The meeting highlighted the need for top-level design in marine economic development and encouraged social capital participation [8] - The national carbon market will include cement, steel, and electrolytic aluminum industries, with a target to cover 7.5 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions by 2027 [9] Environmental Sector Performance - The environmental sector saw a weekly increase of 0.81%, with notable stock performances including Xuedilong (+31.74%) and Sandetech (+26.25%) [13][16] - The weekly trading volume for national carbon market emissions was 2.47 million tons, with an average price of 72.64 yuan/ton, reflecting a 62% decrease from the previous week [14] Carbon Neutrality Tracking - The CCER trading volume reached 103,000 tons with an average price of 87.04 yuan/ton [14] - The Shanghai pilot carbon market achieved 100% compliance for twelve consecutive years, with a significant increase in green electricity consumption [18] Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include leading waste incineration companies such as Sanfeng Environment and Huanlan Environment, as well as companies in the recycling sector like Zhuoyue New Energy and Sanlian Hongpu [11]

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China is expanding its coverage to include more industries, with significant policy advancements in 2023 aimed at enhancing carbon emissions trading and promoting low-carbon technologies [1][2]. Group 1: Carbon Market Expansion - The national carbon emissions trading market has officially expanded to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, following the power generation sector [1][2]. - The government aims to gradually include key products from the petrochemical, chemical, paper, and aviation industries into the carbon market starting in 2026 [1][2]. - The expansion follows a "mature first, include first" principle, with scientific assessments submitted to the State Council for approval [1][2]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The cement industry was prioritized for inclusion due to its mature production processes and data foundation, while the aluminum smelting sector has a relatively low direct carbon emission impact [2]. - Approximately 730 steel enterprises are engaged in annual carbon emissions accounting, with long-process steel companies accounting for 90% of total emissions in the sector [2]. - The chemical industry presents complexities in product inclusion due to the variety of products and their respective emissions profiles, with over 200 million tons of key products currently reported [3]. Group 3: Paper Industry Dynamics - The paper industry, while not yet included in the carbon market, has a significant relationship with carbon emissions due to its energy consumption patterns, with coal accounting for 75% of its energy use [4]. - The industry utilizes self-owned power plants, which are already included in the carbon market, leading to potential challenges in accounting for emissions from self-generated steam [5]. - Opportunities for the paper industry include enhancing energy efficiency and utilizing biomass in self-owned power plants, which can contribute to carbon reduction efforts [6][7]. Group 4: CCER Mechanism and Development - The CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) mechanism currently allows for a 5% offset in the carbon market, with an estimated demand of approximately 400 million tons post-expansion [9][10]. - The existing CCER methodologies cover limited sectors, necessitating the development of additional methodologies to meet the growing demand for carbon credits [9][10]. - Expanding methodologies to include waste treatment and other sectors can facilitate low-carbon transitions and enhance the overall effectiveness of the carbon market [10].

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Positive (Maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the continuous expansion of underlying demand for green electricity, highlighting the positive outlook for downstream operation and monitoring equipment [3][5] - The construction of a systematic green electricity trading market in China, centered around carbon markets, green electricity trading markets, and green certificate trading markets, is crucial for addressing the pricing of environmental value in electricity [5][10] - The decoupling of carbon markets from green electricity and green certificates indicates that the expansion of carbon markets will not impact the demand for green electricity [24][38] Summary by Sections Section 1: Carbon Market and Green Electricity Market - The national carbon market, initiated in 2021, currently includes only four industries, with a slow expansion rate [22] - The report outlines the relationship between carbon markets, green electricity trading markets, and green certificate trading markets, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach to promote green electricity consumption [13][18] Section 2: Demand Side Analysis - Domestic policies and international recognition are driving the gradual expansion of demand for green electricity and green certificates [5][6] - Key domestic policies include mandatory renewable energy consumption assessments for local governments and encouragement for high-energy-consuming enterprises to consume green electricity [38][45] Section 3: Supply Side Analysis - The introduction of Document No. 136 is expected to reduce the supply of green certificates, improving the current oversupply situation [5][6] - The report suggests that the price of green certificates is likely to rise as supply decreases, moving away from the current low price levels [5][6] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on carbon detection companies and green electricity operation companies, particularly biomass power generation enterprises, as they are expected to benefit from rising green certificate prices [6][5] - The report highlights the potential for offshore wind power projects to generate additional revenue through CCER trading, especially with the recognition of CCER by the EU's CBAM [6][37] Section 5: Policy Implications - The introduction of long-term power purchase agreements for renewable energy projects is expected to stabilize demand and profitability for new energy enterprises [6][5] - The report discusses the implications of various policies on the renewable energy market, including the impact of the CBAM and other international policies on domestic green electricity consumption [6][38]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1][30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities arising from the resolution of hidden local government debts, which is expected to improve the balance sheets of environmental companies. Since 2018, risks associated with local government hidden debts have been alleviated, with a target to completely resolve these debts by the end of 2028, involving an increase of 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits to replace existing hidden debts [4][9][11]. Summary by Sections Weekly Investment Perspective - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to limit new local government debt while addressing existing hidden debts, focusing on the investment opportunities this creates for environmental companies. The goal is to resolve all hidden debts by the end of 2028, with a total of 6 trillion yuan in new debt limits to facilitate this process [4][8][9]. Environmental Sector Performance - The environmental sector experienced a slight increase of 0.46% in the week of June 3 to June 6, 2025. In comparison, the gas and water sectors rose by 1.95% and 0.79%, respectively. The report also lists the top five gainers and losers among environmental stocks during this period [12][13][14]. Carbon Neutrality Tracking - The report provides data on carbon market transactions, noting that the national carbon emissions trading quota (CEA) saw a transaction volume of 2.22 million tons, a 5% increase from the previous week, with an average transaction price of 67.21 yuan per ton. Local trading exchanges saw a significant drop in transaction volume, down 74% [16][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within the environmental sector based on their potential for growth due to the ongoing debt resolution policies. Key recommendations include: - Solid Waste: China Everbright International, Sanfeng Environment, Green Power, and Hanlan Environment - Water Services: Beijing Enterprises Water Group and Guangdong Investment - Engineering Services: Delin Hai - Environmental Monitoring Equipment: Xuedilong [11][12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report tracks marginal changes in the carbon market since 2025, indicating a 60% expansion progress in the carbon market, with expectations for quota prices to rebound in the second half of the year [2][4] - The issuance of green certificates (绿证) is expected to achieve full coverage by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year increase in trading volume of 3.64 times, indicating an upward price trend [2][5] - The market activity of CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) is anticipated to continue expanding due to methodological expansion [2][7] - The dual carbon strategy is accelerating, with sectors such as waste incineration, carbon monitoring, CCUS, hydrogen energy, electric sanitation vehicles, and recycling resources expected to benefit [2][8] Summary by Sections Quotas - After the compliance period, quota prices have declined, with a current market expansion progress of 60%. The price dropped from over 100 yuan per ton at the end of last year to 68.46 yuan per ton by May 30, 2025, primarily due to weak demand during the non-compliance period [4][22] - The carbon market's coverage of carbon dioxide emissions is expected to increase from about 40% to over 60% with the inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum industries [4][24] Green Certificates - The issuance of green certificates has accelerated since mid-2024, with a completion rate of 95% for centralized renewable energy projects by the end of 2024. A total of 4.677 billion green certificates were issued, with wind, conventional hydropower, solar power, and biomass power accounting for 40.77%, 33.73%, 17.18%, and 8.15% respectively [5][29] - The trading volume of green certificates in 2024 increased by 3.64 times year-on-year, with the manufacturing sector consuming nearly 70% of the total [5][35] CCER - Since October 2023, the progress of CCER has accelerated, with the release of new methodologies and the establishment of a basic institutional framework for voluntary emission reduction trading [7][45] - The price of CCER is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend as more industries are included in the carbon quota management [49] Investment Strategy - The dual carbon strategy is advancing rapidly, with the carbon market construction accelerating. The report highlights potential investment opportunities in waste incineration, carbon monitoring, CCUS, hydrogen energy, electric sanitation vehicles, and recycling resources [8][52] - Companies such as Huanlan Environment, Guangda Environment, and Weiming Environment are expected to benefit from the green certificate replacing national subsidies, improving cash flow [52][53]

Group 1 - The Chinese government has issued opinions to enhance the market-oriented allocation system for resource and environmental factors, focusing on carbon emission rights, water rights, and pollution discharge rights [1] - By 2027, the carbon emission rights and water rights trading systems are expected to be fundamentally improved, with a well-established pollution discharge rights trading system and a more robust energy-saving market mechanism [1] - The national carbon emission trading market will gradually expand its industry coverage, adding approximately 1,500 new key emission units, which could increase the market share of emissions from 40% to 60%, adding around 3 billion tons of emissions to the market [2] Group 2 - Fujian Jinsen's subsidiary, Jinsen Carbon Sink Technology, is actively participating in the development of greenhouse gas voluntary reduction projects in line with China's certified voluntary reduction trading policies [3] - Xingyuan Environment plans to trade forestry carbon sink-related indicators in the CCER market [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the environmental sector, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - The national carbon market is accelerating its development with the first batch of CCER (Certified Emission Reduction) registrations initiated, indicating a growing demand for carbon credits [8][11]. - The report highlights a significant drop in weekly trading volumes for carbon emissions allowances, with CEA (Carbon Emission Allowance) transactions at 210,300 tons, down 66% from the previous week, and an average price of 87.66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1% [6][17]. - The CCER methodology has expanded its coverage, with new methodologies introduced for coal mine low-concentration gas utilization and energy-saving in highway tunnel lighting systems [10][11]. Summary by Sections Weekly Investment Perspective - The existing CCER has expired, and the methodology has broadened, with the first batch of methodologies now open for CCER registration. Investment opportunities are recommended in the recycling resources and carbon monitoring sectors [8][9]. - CCER can be used to offset carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market, with a cap of 5% on offsets [9][10]. Environmental Sector Performance - The environmental sector saw a weekly increase of 2.29%, while other sectors like gas and water utilities experienced slight declines [14]. - Top-performing stocks included SanDe Technology (+36.67%) and NingShui Group (+31.87%), while the worst performers were WeiPaiGe (-14.56%) and AnChe Detection (-6.04%) [6][17]. Carbon Neutrality Tracking - The report notes that by 2027, a voluntary disclosure policy for corporate greenhouse gas emissions will be established, with a complete framework expected by 2030 [21]. - The national carbon market is set to expand beyond the power sector to include industries such as cement and steel, with a projected increase in annual greenhouse gas emissions coverage from 4.5 billion tons to 7.5 billion tons [9][10]. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their potential benefits from the evolving carbon market, including: - Snowy Dragon for online monitoring of pollution sources - SanFeng Environment and HanLan Environment for waste incineration - High Energy Environment for recycled metals [12][13].