%% %% research.95579.com 联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] 碳中和系列："十五五"碳达峰决胜期，政策深化 下的投资机遇 %% %% 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 在"双碳"战略的顶层设计与全国碳市场逐步深化的共同驱动下，中国经济的绿色转型已从理念 倡导进入实质性攻坚阶段。我们认为，这一波澜壮阔的转型进程将系统性地催生多层次、长周 期的产业投资机遇；其核心逻辑并非局限于单一赛道，而是围绕"能源系统重塑、工业绿色溢价、 降碳技术放量与配套服务崛起"四大维度展开的立体化投资图谱。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 魏凯 赵超 SFC：BQT627 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490522030001 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BUT911 SAC ...

证券日报网1月28日讯 ，长青集团在接受调研者提问时表示，根据已公布的相关文件，参加绿证交易的 项目，相应电量不得再申请CCER。现阶段公司认为交易CCER相比绿证更具优势。公司会采取以效益 最大化为原则进行相应的决策。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Insights - The CCER market transforms ecological value into economic benefits by certifying carbon reduction efforts, supporting China's dual carbon goals of peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 [1][2][5] - The market officially restarted on January 22, 2024, after a two-year hiatus, with nearly 200 new projects applying for participation and a projected transaction volume of 8.84 million tons and a transaction value of 626 million yuan in 2025 [1][3] Market Dynamics - CCER is a voluntary mechanism complementing the mandatory carbon emission allowances (CEA), allowing companies to earn revenue by exceeding their carbon reduction targets [3][4] - The market has seen significant growth, with over 5,700 entities opening trading accounts, a threefold increase since the restart, and a cumulative transaction value exceeding 650 million yuan [7][8] Methodological Improvements - The CCER market has developed a more robust methodological framework, expanding to 12 methodologies across various sectors, enhancing the economic feasibility of low-carbon projects [7][8] - The first batch of CCER transactions post-restart included significant sales, such as the Jiangsu Dongtai offshore wind project generating nearly 70 million yuan from 857,000 tons of carbon reduction [7] Financial Innovations - CCER has become a foundational asset for green financial products, enabling banks and funds to create tailored financial solutions linked to carbon assets [8] - Examples include loans tied to carbon asset management and bonds linked to CCER development volumes, facilitating lower-cost financing for companies [8] Challenges and Recommendations - Despite progress, the CCER market faces challenges such as regional disparities in project development and the need for clearer methodologies for forest carbon sinks [9][10] - Recommendations include enhancing support for project implementation, optimizing policies for regional differences, and expediting the establishment of methodologies to clarify carbon reduction standards [10][11]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 三峡能源（600905.SH）12月30日在投资者互动平台表示，当前CCER处于市场初期，交易规模有限。 未来随着CCER市场进一步成熟、活跃度不断提升，CCER交易规模及收益预计向好发展。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司海上风电的ccer收益情况如何？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial system plays a crucial role in stabilizing expectations, growth, and structure amid economic transformation and cyclical fluctuations, necessitating a focus on how finance can better serve the real economy and enhance systemic resilience [1][14]. Group 1: Climate Change and Financial Mechanisms - The rise of unilateralism and trade protectionism has complicated global cooperation on climate change, with developed countries expected to provide more financial support for climate governance [14]. - There is a need to transform green credit into financial assets that are priceable, verifiable, and pledgeable, as standardized green credit assets are currently limited in the domestic market [2][14]. - The COP30 conference highlighted the increasing importance of climate adaptation financing, with a commitment to mobilize at least $1.3 trillion annually by 2035, doubling climate adaptation funds [3][15]. Group 2: Green Development and China's Role - China has established a large-scale clean energy system, with wind and solar power installations exceeding 1.69 billion kilowatts by August 2025, positioning itself as a leader in low-carbon transition [18]. - The country has made significant strides in ecological protection and restoration, with notable projects like the Three-North Shelter Forest Program recognized internationally for their ecological effectiveness [18]. - The establishment of a just transition mechanism at COP30 aligns with China's dual carbon goals, ensuring that climate actions benefit livelihoods while supporting low-carbon transitions in developing countries [19]. Group 3: Biodiversity Credit Mechanisms - The development of biodiversity credit mechanisms is still in its infancy in China, but there is potential for these credits to fill financing gaps in ecological protection as companies face increasing ESG responsibilities [20][21]. - A market-based mechanism is essential for achieving environmental goals at lower costs, with the carbon market in China demonstrating the feasibility of such approaches [21]. - The establishment of a standardized natural credit system is underway, focusing on transparency and traceability to ensure the credibility of ecological credit assets [23][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Traditional energy: The slowdown in crude oil supply growth may help prices bottom out; tight thermal coal supply is expected to push up coal price levels; LNG supply growth acceleration is exerting downward pressure on global gas price levels [2][3]. - Carbon market: In 2026, China's carbon market is expected to return to a supply - tight state, and carbon prices may rise with fluctuations; European carbon prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the central level possibly slightly declining following natural gas prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Supply: The supply growth rate has slowed, with geopolitical issues posing risks. OPEC+ continues to increase production but at a slower pace, halting production increases in Q1 2026; US production has entered a plateau phase and may face production cuts later. Non - US and non - OPEC+ supply increase expectations have also decreased. Overall supply remains loose, but the oversupply pressure has eased, and sanctioned countries' supply may decline periodically [9]. - Demand: Global oil demand growth continues to slow. Developed countries and China's oil demand have entered a plateau phase. Terminal demand lacks highlights, but structural contradictions in overseas refined oil markets and inventory replenishment in some regions support demand [10]. - Price: In a weak supply - demand scenario, the oil price center in 2026 may experience volatile bottom - building. The oversupply pressure will be relatively higher in H1, and the price may be lower in H1 and higher in H2 [11]. 3.2 Coal - Market situation: Since 2021, the coal market has been affected by multiple factors. Coal prices bottomed out in H1 2025, with clear cost support. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are likely to move within a range due to peaking coal demand during the energy transition [15]. - Supply control: To adapt to future coal demand changes and ensure energy security, coal supply needs to be controlled through stable production, safety supervision, and environmental monitoring [16]. - Demand: Coal demand remains resilient. New electricity demand, extreme weather, and the role of thermal power in the power system, as well as coal's use in the chemical industry, contribute to this resilience. Coal demand may peak between 2025 - 2027 and then enter a consumption plateau [17]. - Price: In 2026, coal supply has limited upward elasticity, and demand is moderately resilient. The fundamentals will shift from loose to balanced, with the price center potentially moving up to Rmb700 - 900 per tonne. Key factors include policy evolution and energy transition progress, and price dynamics are affected by unusual weather, speculative demand, market sentiment, and policy changes [18]. 3.3 Natural Gas 3.3.1 LNG - 2025 situation: Global supply growth exceeded 4%, but demand growth was less than 3%. By mid - Nov 2025, new production capacity added 42mn t, with a full - year expectation of over 46mn t. The actual supply increase exceeded 18mn t, with a growth rate over 4%, while the trade volume increase for the first ten months was only 9mn t, with a growth rate less than 3%. This led to a price trend of being higher in H1 and lower in H2 [22]. - 2026 outlook: The supply growth rate is expected to exceed 10%, while demand growth will be significantly lower. Capacity utilization will decline, and gas prices will face sustained pressure. Global production capacity is forecast to accelerate to over 60mn t, with actual supply increases potentially exceeding 40mn t, a growth rate of nearly 10%. The incremental output will mainly come from the US, Mexico, Qatar, and Nigeria. The global LNG trade growth rate in 2026 may be 3 - 4% or below 7% [23]. 3.3.2 Regional Market - Europe: The natural gas supply tends to ease due to global LNG capacity addition. Although Russian gas imports face uncertainty, the global supply increase can cover potential gaps. Residential and commercial gas usage will remain stable, and industrial gas consumption may slightly recover but is limited by energy transition. The gas price center faces downward pressure, and inventory replenishment pace is a key variable for seasonal prices [28]. - US: The market maintains a tight balance. Supply growth is expected to slow down, with some regions still having production potential, but associated gas production growth may decline. Domestic commercial and residential gas consumption may weaken, while industrial and power - sector demand are resilient. Exports will continue to grow strongly. The market is expected to continue inventory drawdown, with the price center staying at relatively high levels and regional structural contradictions becoming more pronounced [29]. 3.4 Carbon 3.4.1 Chinese Market - CEA: In 2026, the "tightening constraint" on quota carryovers in the national carbon market will disappear, and the market may return to the "reluctance to sell" logic. The net surplus of quotas will further decrease, and new demand from three new sectors may lead to carbon prices rising with fluctuations [31][32][33]. - CCER: The national CCER market is accelerating its "expansion". By Nov 6, 2025, 13 projects have completed emission reduction registration, with an initial volume of approximately 15.0428mt, and 11 projects are expected to complete registration in the next 6 months, adding about 7.5276mt of CCERs. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released more methodologies, and more may be issued in the future [34][35][38]. 3.4.2 European Market - EUA: European carbon prices will fluctuate within a range, with the central level potentially following natural gas prices to a slight downward adjustment. In 2026, natural gas supply will be more relaxed, and demand will be moderate. In the long - term, as the EU reduces the cap on allowances, carbon prices are likely to have a floor support [37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the allocation plan for carbon emission rights in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries for 2024 and 2025, focusing on direct carbon emissions during production and implementing a carbon emission intensity control approach starting in 2025 [2][6]. - The allocation mechanism is expected to tighten gradually, which will benefit the demand for green certificates and CCER, leading to improved cash flow for waste incineration companies and supporting the logic of green fuel substitution [2][14]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On November 17, 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment published the allocation plan for carbon emission rights, detailing the distribution range and methods for 2024 and 2025, including issuance, compliance, and carryover of quotas [6]. Event Commentary - The report expresses optimism regarding the demand for green certificates, which is expected to improve cash flow for waste incineration companies. Companies such as Huanlan Environment, Weiming Environmental Protection, and Guangguang Environment are highlighted for their potential [8][14].

Core Insights - The transition to a green economy is a core direction for high-quality development in China, driven by the "dual carbon" goals, with financial institutions positioned as key players in this transformation [1][2] Green Finance Market - China's green finance market is experiencing rapid growth, with green credit reaching a new scale of 6.52 trillion yuan in 2024, and total outstanding loans exceeding 35 trillion yuan [2] - The green bond market is also active, with 477 products issued in 2024, totaling approximately 244.19 billion yuan, and cumulative issuance surpassing 4.16 trillion yuan [2] - The carbon market, however, is lagging, with carbon emission allowances (CEA) trading volume at 18.9 million tons and transaction value at 18.114 billion yuan, indicating a need for market activation [2] Role of Securities Companies - Securities companies are crucial participants in the green finance ecosystem, acting as connectors and innovators, particularly in the green bond sector where they underwrote 167.405 billion yuan of green bonds, accounting for 24.57% of total issuance [3] - They are also exploring carbon market participation, with 16 firms qualified for carbon trading, and are developing innovative products like green financial derivatives and sustainable asset-backed securities [3][4] CCER Market Participation - Securities firms are at an early stage in the CCER market, focusing on voluntary carbon emission reductions, which are essential for China's climate governance and future carbon market dynamics [4][5] - The CCER market has seen the introduction of six methodologies and public consultations for new methodologies, expanding the scope for project development across various sectors [5][6] Pathways for Securities Firms in CCER - Securities companies can engage in CCER through three main pathways: 1. Establishing proprietary trading and carbon asset management to capture market opportunities [6] 2. Innovating carbon financial derivatives to enhance market liquidity [7] 3. Directly participating in CCER project development to provide comprehensive services [8] International Integration and Long-term Value - The development of CCER projects aligns with China's transition from carbon peak to carbon neutrality, with potential for significant market activity post-peak [10] - There is a growing emphasis on aligning CCER with international carbon standards, particularly with the EU, which could enhance the value of domestic carbon assets significantly [10][11] Conclusion - Securities companies play a vital role in activating the CCER market and supporting the broader green finance landscape, with strategies focused on immediate market engagement and long-term international integration [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the national carbon emissions trading market are normal and influenced by multiple factors, including supply and demand, market expectations, and trading behavior [3] Group 1: Carbon Market Developments - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to expand the coverage of the carbon market, prioritizing total quota control in stable carbon emission industries by 2027 [4] - The inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum industries in the carbon market aims to enhance emission reduction responsibilities and support national greenhouse gas emission control goals [4][5] - The carbon market has already reduced overall emission reduction costs by approximately 35 billion RMB during the first two compliance periods, with further reductions expected as more industries participate [5][6] Group 2: CCER Market Progress - As of October 28, the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market has registered 31 projects and achieved a cumulative transaction volume of 3.25 million tons of CCER, with a transaction value of 27 million RMB [7] - The CCER market is expanding its support to various projects, including afforestation carbon sinks and offshore wind power, with ongoing efforts to develop new methodologies [8] - Future efforts will focus on expanding market support areas, improving data quality supervision, and enhancing international cooperation to increase the carbon market's global influence [8]

Core Insights - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" marks a new phase in the development of China's carbon market, emphasizing its role as a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and facilitating a comprehensive green transition in economic and social development [1][5]. Group 1: Carbon Market Development - The national carbon market has completed three compliance cycles, with a cumulative trading volume of 680 million tons and a transaction value of 47.41 billion RMB as of August 22, 2025, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1]. - The carbon market will expand to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries starting in 2024, increasing the number of covered enterprises to approximately 3,600 and the annual carbon dioxide emissions covered to 800 million tons, which accounts for over 60% of the national total [2]. Group 2: Compliance and Emission Reduction - Power generation companies have shown a strong commitment to compliance, achieving a compliance rate of 99.98% in the third compliance cycle, reflecting a significant improvement in their awareness and management of carbon emissions [3][4]. - The carbon emissions per unit of electricity generated in the power sector have decreased by 12.1% from 2018 to 2024, demonstrating the effectiveness of the carbon market in promoting emission reductions [4]. Group 3: Transition in Carbon Allocation Mechanism - The shift from intensity-based control to total emissions control, along with the introduction of a mixed allocation method of free and paid carbon quotas, is expected to enhance the market's regulatory power and better reflect the actual costs of emissions for enterprises [5][6]. - This new allocation mechanism is anticipated to create a scarcity value for carbon quotas, encouraging companies to transition from passive compliance to proactive emission reduction strategies [7]. Group 4: Financial Mechanisms and Market Liquidity - The development of carbon finance is highlighted as a key mechanism for supporting green and low-carbon projects, with the potential to reduce economic risks for compliance enterprises and enhance the carbon price formation mechanism [11]. - The carbon market's turnover rate is projected to increase from 2.0% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024, driven by policy adjustments such as the reduction of compliance cycles and the introduction of quota rollover mechanisms [12]. Group 5: Future Opportunities and Challenges - The tightening of quota benchmarks and rising carbon prices may increase compliance costs for power generation companies, leading to potential market imbalances and heightened financial risks [8]. - Companies are advised to adopt diversified carbon asset development strategies, including participation in green electricity and carbon credit projects, to mitigate risks and enhance long-term profitability [10].