2025年5月7日，美联储即将公布最新利率决议，市场普遍预期其将连续第六次维持基准利率在4.25%-4.50%不变。 然而，美国总统特朗普在强劲的4月非农数据发布后，再度向美联储发起"降息冲锋"，令这场本已复杂的政策博弈 更添火药味。 鲍威尔如何平衡"数据韧性"与"政治压力"，如何在关税引发的滞胀风险中维系政策独立性，将成为重塑全球市场 格局的关键变量。这场白宫与美联储的博弈，或许才刚刚进入深水区。 五芳传世非遗味 百汇棕揽四海财 BCR端午赠礼,祝您粽盈百福,汇利双收 BCR Co Pty Ltd BVI Company No. 1975046 | License No. SIBA/L/19/1122 五芳隆廣 特朗普的"降息檄文"：数据与立场的角力北京时间5月2日晚间，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，4月非农就业人口 新增17.7万人，远超预期的13.3万，但3月数据从22.8万下修至18.5万，前两月累计下修5.8万岗位。失业率持稳于 4.2%，平均时薪年率3.8%略低于预期。数据发布后仅数分钟，特朗普即在Truth Social发文疾呼："没有通胀！美 联储必须降息！！！"。此番言论与其近期态度形成微妙反 ...

Group 1: Economic Projections - The projected GDP growth for 2025 is 3% in Q1 and 2.1% in Q4[8] - The PCE inflation rate is expected to be 2.7% in Q1 2025 and 2.5% in Q4 2026[8] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.4% in Q1 2025 and 4.3% in Q4 2026[8] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%[4] - By mid-2025, there is an 80.60% probability of rates being between 425-450 basis points[10] - The probability of rates being between 375-400 basis points is 86.00% by October 2026[10] Group 3: Market Insights - The report indicates a significant focus on inflation control and economic stability[4] - The analysis suggests that market participants are closely monitoring the FOMC's decisions regarding interest rates[10] - The overall sentiment reflects cautious optimism regarding economic recovery and growth prospects[4]