Core Viewpoint - The UK bond yield curve is steepening as the market reassesses the outlook for fiscal policy, indicating a shift in expectations regarding public borrowing and potential government actions [1] Group 1: Market Reassessment - The market is evidently re-evaluating the prospects of UK fiscal policy, leading to a significant steepening of the bond yield curve [1] - A recent vote in the House of Commons has prompted a reconsideration of public borrowing possibilities [1] Group 2: Government Borrowing and Budget Expectations - The market has recognized that the government has deviated from its borrowing path and anticipates corrective measures in the budget [1] - If the current market trend continues, the government may need to announce measures on the revenue side rather than cutting public spending [1] Group 3: Central Bank Actions - The Bank of England is reportedly assessing Quantitative Tightening (QT) and may conclude asset sales by the fall [1]

Group 1: Economic Projections - The projected GDP growth for 2025 is 3% in Q1 and 2.1% in Q4[8] - The PCE inflation rate is expected to be 2.7% in Q1 2025 and 2.5% in Q4 2026[8] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.4% in Q1 2025 and 4.3% in Q4 2026[8] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%[4] - By mid-2025, there is an 80.60% probability of rates being between 425-450 basis points[10] - The probability of rates being between 375-400 basis points is 86.00% by October 2026[10] Group 3: Market Insights - The report indicates a significant focus on inflation control and economic stability[4] - The analysis suggests that market participants are closely monitoring the FOMC's decisions regarding interest rates[10] - The overall sentiment reflects cautious optimism regarding economic recovery and growth prospects[4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [3]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March 2025 FOMC meeting resulted in a unanimous decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5%, marking the second pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024 [3][4]. - The Fed announced a slowdown in the pace of quantitative tightening (QT), reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion starting in April 2025 [4][6]. - The overall tone of the March FOMC statement was more dovish than expected, indicating increased uncertainty around the economic outlook and a more cautious approach to monetary policy [3][6]. - The Fed's economic projections for 2025 and 2026 show a downward revision in GDP growth to 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively, while inflation expectations have been adjusted upward [14][15]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decisions - The FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged and to slow down QT, reflecting a cautious stance amid rising economic uncertainty [3][4]. - The decision to reduce the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities is aimed at managing liquidity in the banking system [6]. Economic Projections - The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates a slight increase in the unemployment rate forecast for 2025 to 4.4% and an upward revision of PCE inflation to 2.7% [14][15]. - The Fed maintains that the likelihood of a recession remains low, despite increased policy uncertainty [14][15]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, U.S. stock markets experienced a rebound, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.08% and the Nasdaq by 1.41% [16]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts have also shifted, with probabilities for cuts in May and June 2025 increasing [16].

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 摘要 广发宏观郭磊团队 第一， 在美联储2025年3月议息会议中 ，FOMC官员一致投票保持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25-4.5%， 这是自2024年9月启动降息后第二次暂停。同时，美联储表示将进一步放缓资产负债表缩减节奏。值得注意 的是，美联储内部对利率决策意见一致，但对控通胀缺乏进展背景下放缓缩表意见并不一致，美联储理事沃勒 就对减缓QT表示反对。 第二， 整体看，3月FOMC声明较预期更加鸽派。一是声明认为政策变化导致经济前景的不确定性在增加； 二是减缓QT开始的时间较预期更早。美联储决定从4月开始，将国债月度赎回上限从250亿美元调降至50亿 美元，同时保持机构债券和机构抵押贷款支持证券每月赎回上限在350亿美元。在前期报告《新公布的1月美 联储会议纪要说了什么》中我们曾做过分析，美国政府债务上限于今年1月到期，美国财政部动用TGA （Treasury General Account, TGA）账户资金来维持日常运转。为避免未来债务上限变化可能导致银行储 备（reserves）出现大幅波动，放缓资产负债表缩减具有合理性 。 ...