花旗策略师表示，美联储主席提名人沃什很可能会采取循序渐进的方式缩减美联储规模达6.6万亿美元 的资产组合，以避免重新引发货币市场紧张。任何重启缩表的尝试都可能再次给规模达12.6万亿美元的 回购市场带来压力。花旗策略师表示："鉴于去年回购市场经历了剧烈波动，重启QT的门槛相当高。可 以推测，FOMC会更倾向于采取渐进式做法。"不过沃什领导下的美联储仍有多种方式缩减资产规模。 最小阻力路径可能是通过将到期的长期国债转换为短期债务，缩短持仓的加权平均期限；也可能选择将 目前约每月400亿美元的国库券购买规模下调，甚至完全停止；其他选项还包括允许其所持有的抵押贷 款支持 证券自然到期。花旗预计，决策者将自4月中旬起把购债规模降至每月约200亿美元，并持续至 年底。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the Federal Reserve's resumption of Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) after the December 2025 FOMC meeting has sparked optimism for a "QE-style" liquidity easing, but the era of QE may be over until the next economic crisis [1] Group 1: Transition from Balance Sheet Normalization - Since the 2008 global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has expanded significantly, with total assets reaching $6.6 trillion by November 2025, over seven times the level in early 2008 and 1.7 times the level at the end of the first round of quantitative tightening (QT1) in September 2019 [2] - The resumption of RMP in December 2025 marks the beginning of a "normalization expansion" phase, with an initial monthly purchase of $40 billion, potentially slowing to $20-25 billion after May [2] Group 2: Differences Between RMP and QE - RMP and QE differ fundamentally in terms of quantity, quality, and market implications; RMP operates under a framework of ample reserves and is not aimed at influencing monetary policy stance, while QE is a non-conventional tool aimed at lowering long-term interest rates [3] - The transition from a "shortage of reserves" to an "ample reserves" framework has changed how the Federal Reserve controls interest rates, with the latter allowing for less frequent open market operations [4] Group 3: End of the QE Era - The ability of the Federal Reserve to shrink its balance sheet post-QE depends on reserve demand and the duration of held securities; historically, zero interest rates have been a necessary condition for the implementation of QE or Yield Curve Control (YCC) [5] - The year 2026 is projected to be the final phase of a rate-cutting cycle for Western central banks, indicating that liquidity easing may not be as significant as previously thought [5] Group 4: Market Implications - The impact of RMP on capital markets is seen as indirect and defensive, potentially reducing the likelihood of stock sell-offs due to liquidity shocks, but not fundamentally bullish for the market [6]

"流动性笔记"系列之八 2026 年 01 月 31 日 QE 时代的终结 美联储资产负债表分析框架 2025 年 12 月 FOMC 例会后, 美联储重启准备金管理购买 (RMP)，点燃了"QE 式"流动性宽 松的乐观情绪。但实际上，直到下一次经济危机，QE 时代或已终结。本文基于美联储"充足准备 金" 框架、深度解析其资产负债表的政策意义和市场含义。 一、从缩表到扩表: 美联储资产负债表"正常化"的历程 2008 年全球金融危机（GFC）以来，美联储资产负债表扩张"一发不可收拾"。2008-2026 年, 美联储共实施了四轮扩表（QE）和两轮缩表（量化紧缩，QT），期间还包括一轮再投资和两轮准 备金管理购买（RMP）。截止到 2025 年 11 月 QT2 结束，美联储总资产仍高达 6.6 万亿美元， 是 2008 年初的 7 倍有余, 是 2019 年 9 月 QT1 结束时的 1.7 倍。 2025 年 12 月 FOMC 例会,美联储重启 RMP, 标志着"常态化扩轰"阶段的开始。数量方面, 初期为 400 亿每月，5 月之后或减速至 200-250 亿。中期而言，RMP 扩表的速度或与名义 GDP ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair will significantly influence the independence of the Fed and its policy direction, impacting market expectations and economic stability [2][4]. Group 1: Candidates and Their Profiles - Waller is viewed as a strong candidate due to his familiarity with the Fed and strong economic forecasting abilities, making him a suitable choice [4]. - Waller is characterized as hawkish and relatively conservative, indicating a preference for tighter monetary policy [6]. - The market perceives Waller's potential appointment as a positive for dollar assets, with reduced expectations for interest rate cuts [15]. Group 2: Market Reactions - If Waller is appointed, the market is likely to interpret this as a sign of Fed independence, which would be bullish for dollar assets and diminish rate cut expectations [15]. - Should Washington be appointed instead, the market reaction would be similar to Waller's, but with slightly less intensity [17]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historical lessons, such as Nixon's pressure on Burns, highlight the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence to avoid adverse economic consequences [19].

Core Viewpoint - The UK bond yield curve is steepening as the market reassesses the outlook for fiscal policy, indicating a shift in expectations regarding public borrowing and potential government actions [1] Group 1: Market Reassessment - The market is evidently re-evaluating the prospects of UK fiscal policy, leading to a significant steepening of the bond yield curve [1] - A recent vote in the House of Commons has prompted a reconsideration of public borrowing possibilities [1] Group 2: Government Borrowing and Budget Expectations - The market has recognized that the government has deviated from its borrowing path and anticipates corrective measures in the budget [1] - If the current market trend continues, the government may need to announce measures on the revenue side rather than cutting public spending [1] Group 3: Central Bank Actions - The Bank of England is reportedly assessing Quantitative Tightening (QT) and may conclude asset sales by the fall [1]

Group 1: Economic Projections - The projected GDP growth for 2025 is 3% in Q1 and 2.1% in Q4[8] - The PCE inflation rate is expected to be 2.7% in Q1 2025 and 2.5% in Q4 2026[8] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.4% in Q1 2025 and 4.3% in Q4 2026[8] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%[4] - By mid-2025, there is an 80.60% probability of rates being between 425-450 basis points[10] - The probability of rates being between 375-400 basis points is 86.00% by October 2026[10] Group 3: Market Insights - The report indicates a significant focus on inflation control and economic stability[4] - The analysis suggests that market participants are closely monitoring the FOMC's decisions regarding interest rates[10] - The overall sentiment reflects cautious optimism regarding economic recovery and growth prospects[4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [3]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March 2025 FOMC meeting resulted in a unanimous decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5%, marking the second pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024 [3][4]. - The Fed announced a slowdown in the pace of quantitative tightening (QT), reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion starting in April 2025 [4][6]. - The overall tone of the March FOMC statement was more dovish than expected, indicating increased uncertainty around the economic outlook and a more cautious approach to monetary policy [3][6]. - The Fed's economic projections for 2025 and 2026 show a downward revision in GDP growth to 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively, while inflation expectations have been adjusted upward [14][15]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decisions - The FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged and to slow down QT, reflecting a cautious stance amid rising economic uncertainty [3][4]. - The decision to reduce the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities is aimed at managing liquidity in the banking system [6]. Economic Projections - The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates a slight increase in the unemployment rate forecast for 2025 to 4.4% and an upward revision of PCE inflation to 2.7% [14][15]. - The Fed maintains that the likelihood of a recession remains low, despite increased policy uncertainty [14][15]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, U.S. stock markets experienced a rebound, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.08% and the Nasdaq by 1.41% [16]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts have also shifted, with probabilities for cuts in May and June 2025 increasing [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's March 2025 FOMC meeting resulted in a unanimous decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5%, marking the second pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024. The Fed also indicated a further slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction, with internal disagreements on the approach to controlling inflation amidst a lack of progress [1][5][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decisions - The FOMC statement was more dovish than expected, highlighting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and an earlier-than-anticipated slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT) starting in April, with the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities reduced from $25 billion to $5 billion [1][7][9]. - The Fed's decision to slow QT is seen as a response to potential volatility in bank reserves due to the U.S. debt ceiling situation, which could impact liquidity in the banking system [10][19]. Group 2: Economic Projections - The March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) reflects a cautious outlook, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 revised down to 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively, while inflation expectations were adjusted upward [3][18]. - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 was slightly increased to 4.4%, and the PCE and core PCE inflation forecasts were raised to 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively [3][18]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, U.S. equity markets rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.08%, and the Nasdaq increasing by 1.41%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell slightly from 4.28% to 4.24% [21]. - Market expectations for rate cuts in May and June 2025 increased, with probabilities of 19.4% and 57%, respectively, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards a more dovish monetary policy outlook [19].