Fundamental Analysis - The spot silver price has slightly declined, currently around 52.90, with market focus on support levels for long positions [1] - Recent U.S. economic indicators show signs of weakness, with retail sales in September growing only 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, and a significant drop in consumer confidence index to 88.7 from 95.5 [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in September, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1][3] Market Sentiment - The dovish shift from the Federal Reserve has led to an 85% probability of a rate cut in December, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction [3][4] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, including calls for further rate cuts due to a weakening job market, have bolstered market confidence [3][4] - The bond market reflects strong expectations for a dovish Fed, with a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a widening yield curve [4] Technical Analysis - The silver market is currently in a consolidation phase, with significant resistance at 54.3-54.4 and support around 45.5 [5][9] - The MACD indicator shows a potential bullish trend, although market momentum appears to be weakening [5][9] - The current trading strategy suggests positioning for long trades near the support level of 52.00, with a stop loss at 51.60 and a target range of 53.50-53.90 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown has led to a second delay in the release of monthly employment data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, impacting the availability of key economic indicators [1] Group 1: Impact on Employment Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics, a core statistical agency of the U.S. government, has halted data collection and reporting during the shutdown, affecting the release of important statistics such as the Consumer Price Index [1] - This marks the second consecutive delay in employment report publication since last month, indicating a significant disruption in economic data flow [1] Group 2: Broader Economic Implications - The shutdown is also affecting data collection efforts by other agencies, including the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which may lead to a lack of critical economic insights [1] - Economic analysts suggest that the current situation of weak employment and persistent inflation complicates the economic landscape, making it harder for institutions like the Federal Reserve to make informed decisions due to the absence of vital data [1]

Core Viewpoint - GBP/USD reversed its trend during the US trading session, rebounding approximately 100 points from its intraday low, currently around 1.3360, due to concerns over US-China trade relations and strong selling pressure on the dollar [1] Technical Analysis - GBP/USD has faced resistance near the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) multiple times, with bearish sentiment prevailing due to signs of a breakdown from a descending channel since the beginning of the month [3] - The price may further decline towards the two-month low range of 1.3330-1.3325, with a potential new selling wave if it breaks below the 1.3300 level, targeting support at 1.3260-1.3255 and possibly extending to 1.3200 [3] - Conversely, if a rebound occurs, resistance is expected at the 1.3400 level, followed by the Asian session high of 1.3420, with further upward movement potentially facing resistance at 1.3465-1.3475 [3] Fundamental Analysis - Bank of England (BoE) official Catherine Mann emphasized the need for prolonged tight monetary policy to foster a conducive growth environment, citing persistent inflation and moderate growth prospects [4] - UK Treasury Chief Secretary James Murray stated that the government will not allow departments to use emergency funds for salary increases, aiming to prevent a wage spiral and establish a stable economic foundation [4] - Amidst the US government shutdown and Senate deadlock, market risk aversion is rising, which may provide some safe-haven support for the dollar, potentially suppressing GBP performance [5] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will maintain a dovish stance, limiting the dollar's rebound momentum [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the sixth consecutive time, despite pressure from President Trump for a rate cut following strong April non-farm payroll data [1][2] - April non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, significantly exceeding the expected 133,000, although March data was revised down from 228,000 to 185,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 58,000 jobs over the past two months [1][2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with average hourly earnings rising by 3.8% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [1] Group 2 - Despite Trump's calls for rate cuts, Federal Reserve officials emphasize that combating inflation remains the top priority, with Powell stating he will not yield to political pressure [2] - Market expectations indicate a 97.2% probability of no rate change in May, with the forecast for rate cuts in 2023 reduced from four to three, and the first potential cut now pushed to July [2] - The job market shows significant sectoral divergence, with healthcare (+64,000) and transportation and warehousing (+29,000) sectors expanding, while manufacturing continues to decline, experiencing the largest output drop since 2020 [2] Group 3 - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 achieving its longest nine-day winning streak since 2004, while the dollar index surpassed the 100 mark and gold prices fell by 2% over the week [3] - The futures market has adjusted its expectations for rate cuts, reducing the number of anticipated cuts to four for the year, a significant decrease from earlier aggressive predictions [3] - Powell's ability to balance "data resilience" with "political pressure" and maintain policy independence amid inflation risks from tariffs will be crucial for reshaping global market dynamics [3]