Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields, attributing it to various factors including market liquidity tightening, significant positions in basis trading by hedge funds, and concerns over a potential technical default due to a large volume of maturing debt this year [3][4][16]. Group 1: Reasons for Rising Treasury Yields - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by over 60 basis points in a week, which is atypical given the simultaneous decline in equities and the dollar [6]. - The market's reaction to tariff issues has led to a spike in the VIX index, indicating heightened investor anxiety and a lack of adequate risk absorption [6][8]. - A tightening of market liquidity is evident, as shown by various liquidity indicators, although it has not reached the crisis levels seen in 2020 [8][9]. Group 2: Basis Trading and Its Impact - A significant factor in the rise of Treasury yields is the large-scale unwinding of basis trading positions, primarily by hedge funds, which are major marginal holders of Treasuries [9]. - The high leverage characteristic of basis trading means that increased market volatility can lead to forced liquidations, exacerbating the downward pressure on asset prices [9]. Group 3: Weakening Safe-Haven Status of Treasuries - The traditional safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries is diminishing, as evidenced by their performance amid recent market turmoil [11][13]. - The long-standing inversion of the China-U.S. interest rate differential reflects a shift in the global economic landscape, reducing the correlation between Chinese and U.S. bonds [13]. Group 4: Concerns Over Technical Default - There are fears of a technical default on U.S. debt due to over $7 trillion in Treasuries maturing this year, which could strain the government's ability to refinance [16][20]. - The potential for a technical default is heightened by the current economic climate and the government's debt restructuring proposals, which may not be well-received by major creditors like China and Japan [20][21].

北京时间周三晚间，美股开盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.88%，纳指涨0.18%，标普500指数跌0.43%。随后美股三大指数快速反弹，截至发稿，道指涨0.32%，纳 指涨1.26%，标普500涨0.58%。 个股方面，默沙东、礼来、辉瑞均跌超3%，此前特朗普称美国将对药品征收关税。 | 道琼斯 | | | | | 纳斯达克 | | | | | 标普500 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ------ 道琼斯 37708.76 ▲ 63.17 0.17% | | | | | | 纳斯达克 15491.81 ▲ 223.90 1.47% | | | | | -- 标普500 5007.73 ▲ 24.96 0.50% | | | | | 7207 3646 37269' | | | | 0 700 1.0% | าร์ ที่ยังสาธารณ์ เมื่อมีเท | | | | 1 20% | ก็ติลา 4953 | | | | 1 - 1 ...