投标倍数2.65倍，符合过去六次发行的平均水平。 一级交易商获配14%，为8月以来最高，间接投标人获配比例降至56.5%，直接投标人获配比例升至创纪 录的29.5%。 责任编辑：李桐 美国财政部发行580亿美元3年期国债中标收益率3.609%，截至纽约时间上午11：30投标截止时的发行 前交易水平为3.610%，暗示需求略超预期。市场对此反应有限，3年期国债收益率日内仍上涨约1.5个基 点，接近日内高点，收益率曲线普遍趋陡。 一级交易商获配14%，为8月以来最高，间接投标人获配比例降至56.5%，直接投标人获配比例升至创纪 录的29.5%。 美国财政部发行580亿美元3年期国债中标收益率3.609%，截至纽约时间上午11：30投标截止时的发行 前交易水平为3.610%，暗示需求略超预期。市场对此反应有限，3年期国债收益率日内仍上涨约1.5个基 点，接近日内高点，收益率曲线普遍趋陡。 投标倍数2.65倍，符合过去六次发行的平均水平。 责任编辑：李桐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury issued $58 billion in 3-year bonds with a winning yield of 3.579%, indicating stronger-than-expected demand [1] Summary by Categories Auction Performance - The pre-auction trading level was 3.589%, showing that demand exceeded expectations [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.85, higher than the average of 2.59 from the previous six auctions [1] Investor Distribution - Primary dealers received 9.7% of the allocation, which is lower than the previous auction [1] - Direct bidders' allocation increased to 27.3% [1] - Indirect bidders accounted for 63% of the allocation [1] Market Reaction - The market's reaction to the auction results was limited, with short-term bond yields rising by approximately 2 basis points [1] - The yield spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds narrowed by over 1 basis point [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market surged to record highs on Friday, driven by a lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, which provides stronger justification for the Federal Reserve to continue interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closed at historical highs, with the Dow surpassing 47,000 points, marking the 13th record high this year [1] - Inflation indicators, including rent, are showing signs of deflation, but inflation remains sticky, and returning to the 2% target will take time according to Apollon Wealth Management [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with the 3-year Treasury yield dropping to 3.49%, significantly below the effective federal funds rate of approximately 4.11% [2] - Market expectations indicate a total of 4 to 5 rate cuts of 25 basis points each by mid-2026, although the actual number of cuts may be lower according to Steven Blitz [2] - A positive slope in the short-end yield curve could trigger banks to release credit, restarting loan expansion, potentially occurring as early as next summer [2] Group 3 - Concerns about medium to long-term inflation pressures are echoed by other analysts, highlighting the lagging effects of Fed rate cuts and the potential end of balance sheet reduction by late 2025, which could accelerate inflation risks [3] - Factors such as a rebound in bank lending, increased demand for mortgages and refinancing, and fiscal stimulus from policies could reignite inflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields, attributing it to various factors including market liquidity tightening, significant positions in basis trading by hedge funds, and concerns over a potential technical default due to a large volume of maturing debt this year [3][4][16]. Group 1: Reasons for Rising Treasury Yields - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by over 60 basis points in a week, which is atypical given the simultaneous decline in equities and the dollar [6]. - The market's reaction to tariff issues has led to a spike in the VIX index, indicating heightened investor anxiety and a lack of adequate risk absorption [6][8]. - A tightening of market liquidity is evident, as shown by various liquidity indicators, although it has not reached the crisis levels seen in 2020 [8][9]. Group 2: Basis Trading and Its Impact - A significant factor in the rise of Treasury yields is the large-scale unwinding of basis trading positions, primarily by hedge funds, which are major marginal holders of Treasuries [9]. - The high leverage characteristic of basis trading means that increased market volatility can lead to forced liquidations, exacerbating the downward pressure on asset prices [9]. Group 3: Weakening Safe-Haven Status of Treasuries - The traditional safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries is diminishing, as evidenced by their performance amid recent market turmoil [11][13]. - The long-standing inversion of the China-U.S. interest rate differential reflects a shift in the global economic landscape, reducing the correlation between Chinese and U.S. bonds [13]. Group 4: Concerns Over Technical Default - There are fears of a technical default on U.S. debt due to over $7 trillion in Treasuries maturing this year, which could strain the government's ability to refinance [16][20]. - The potential for a technical default is heightened by the current economic climate and the government's debt restructuring proposals, which may not be well-received by major creditors like China and Japan [20][21].