(本文来自第一财经) 美国财政部发行580亿美元3年期国债中标收益率报3.579%，纽约时间下午1点投标截止时的发行前交易 水平为3.589%，表明需求超出预期。市场对标售表现的反应有限，短债收益率日间走高约2个基点，2 年/10年期国债利差收窄超过1个基点。一级交易商获配9.7%，低于前次，直接投标人获配比例增至 27.3%，间接投标人获配比例为63%。投标倍数2.85倍，相比之下，前六次拍卖平均为2.59倍。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market surged to record highs on Friday, driven by a lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, which provides stronger justification for the Federal Reserve to continue interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closed at historical highs, with the Dow surpassing 47,000 points, marking the 13th record high this year [1] - Inflation indicators, including rent, are showing signs of deflation, but inflation remains sticky, and returning to the 2% target will take time according to Apollon Wealth Management [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with the 3-year Treasury yield dropping to 3.49%, significantly below the effective federal funds rate of approximately 4.11% [2] - Market expectations indicate a total of 4 to 5 rate cuts of 25 basis points each by mid-2026, although the actual number of cuts may be lower according to Steven Blitz [2] - A positive slope in the short-end yield curve could trigger banks to release credit, restarting loan expansion, potentially occurring as early as next summer [2] Group 3 - Concerns about medium to long-term inflation pressures are echoed by other analysts, highlighting the lagging effects of Fed rate cuts and the potential end of balance sheet reduction by late 2025, which could accelerate inflation risks [3] - Factors such as a rebound in bank lending, increased demand for mortgages and refinancing, and fiscal stimulus from policies could reignite inflation [3]

以下文章来源于36氪财经 ，作者黄绎达 郑怀舟 市场对美债的担忧 主要来自于今年的天量到期。 文 ｜ 黄绎达 编辑 ｜ 郑怀舟 来源｜ 36氪财经（ID：krfinance） 封面来源 ｜ 视觉中国 36氪财经 . 36氪旗下官方账号。洞见市场，比99%的投资者更聪明。 4 月 7 日这周 ，随着关税战开打，美股短时间内开启跳水模式、美元汇率走弱，更令市场意外的是美债也在同时走软， 10 年期美债利率在上周的最大上行 幅度超过了 60bps 。 在经历了上述股债汇三杀后，从投资逻辑来看，美股与美元的走势可以说在意料之中，而美债的表现就比较反常了，所以市场对美债利率的短期大幅上行更 加担忧，甚至能看到美债"崩盘"的论调。 那么，是什么原因导致了本轮美债利率超预期大幅上行？市场为何会产生美债"崩盘"的担忧呢？ 美债基差交易平仓 是本轮美债利率上行的主要推手 上周，美国10年期国债利率在周内最大上行幅度超过60bps，并与美股和美元一起在短期内实现了一波股债汇三杀，如此表现一点也不符合资产定价的一般 逻辑。通常，关税问题导致股票、商品等风险资产下杀的同时，债券、黄金等避险资产则会与之对应的走强，然而事实并非如此。 ...