Core Viewpoint - The long-term bullish trend of gold is not over, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar system [2] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, gold prices saw a nearly 20% increase, but from Q2 onwards, prices remained stable with decreased trading activity [1] - The current gold bull market is supported by rising international risks in politics, economy, and military, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 127%, causing international investors to lose confidence in dollar assets [2] Group 2: Stock Market Influence - The performance of the U.S. stock market reflects global risk appetite; when the stock market performs well, gold prices tend to be under pressure, and vice versa [3] - Recent positive performance in global stock markets, including the U.S., China, Japan, and parts of Europe, has led to a subdued gold market [3] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is becoming evident, with July non-farm payroll data significantly below expectations, indicating potential economic pressure ahead [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is seen as a potential turning point for global financial markets, although the actual impact on gold prices remains uncertain [4] - Despite expectations for rate cuts, the market has not seen a corresponding increase in gold prices, as financial markets have benefited from a loose monetary policy [4] - As the effects of tariffs become more pronounced, inflation in the U.S. is expected to rise, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy execution and potentially leading to a shift of investment towards gold as a safe haven [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long-term upward trend of gold is not over, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar system, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 127%, leading to increased concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. economy and investor confidence in dollar assets [2] - The performance of the U.S. stock market is closely linked to global risk appetite, with a strong stock market typically putting pressure on gold prices, while a weak stock market supports gold [3] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September is seen as a potential turning point for global financial markets, with market participants anticipating multiple rate cuts by the end of the year [4] - Despite the anticipation of rate cuts, gold prices have not seen a corresponding increase, as the financial markets have benefited from a loose monetary policy environment [4] - As the impact of tariffs on the economy becomes more pronounced, inflation in the U.S. is expected to rise, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy execution and potentially leading to a shift of investment funds towards gold and other safe-haven assets [4]