智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行管委、意大利央行行长法比奥·帕内塔表示，国际货币体系可能会从美元 转向几种共存的全球货币体系。帕内塔周二表示，尽管美元仍将是关键货币，但世界"可能会逐渐走向 更加多极化的格局"，这种转变可能会带来更大的多元化，但如果协调出现问题，也可能加剧波动性和 传染风险。 帕内塔表示，良好的治理是管控此类风险的关键。他指出，货币稳定的支柱仍然是国家权威和独立的中 央银行。 国际清算银行9月份发布的三年一度的调查显示，美元继续主导全球外汇市场，在所有交易中占比高达 89.2%，高于2022年的88.4%。欧元的份额从30.6%下滑至28.9%，而日元的份额则基本保持稳定，为 16.8%。 欧洲一直在努力加强其战略自主性，其中包括赋予欧元更大的全球影响力。欧盟已改善跨境支付，加强 流动性支持，并致力于提升金融基础设施的数字化水平。帕内塔表示，欧洲需要流动性更强的资本市场 和投资更高的经济，才能在国际货币体系中发挥更大的作用。 他表示，展望未来，美元的未来发展"将取决于一些缓慢变化的因素，例如美元一些传统支柱的削弱、 中国的崛起以及欧洲在更深层次一体化方面取得的进展"。 ...

Core Insights - Recent market volatility, particularly a 20% drop in Bitcoin, may be influenced by broader geopolitical tensions, specifically U.S.-China relations [1][3] - The trade war has escalated beyond mere rhetoric, with significant declines in import and export figures between the two nations, impacting global supply chains [3] - The Federal Reserve's signals of weakening interest rate hikes have not alleviated market risk aversion, raising concerns about the dollar's value in the context of potential economic decoupling [3][5] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's price has seen significant fluctuations, dropping from approximately $68,000 in mid-June to over $54,000 by the end of the month, correlating with trade war developments [5] - The People's Bank of China's data indicates a 29% year-on-year increase in cross-border payments in RMB, suggesting a shift towards local currency transactions amid current international conditions [6] - The tightening of U.S. monetary policy is leading to a reduction in global risk capital, disproportionately affecting high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies [6] Currency Implications - The dollar's dominance in global forex trading, currently at 88%, could be challenged if major economies begin to bypass dollar transactions, potentially impacting cryptocurrency prices [8] - The interconnectedness of various asset classes means that fluctuations in the dollar's stability can have widespread effects on perceived asset values, including cryptocurrencies [8][10] - Ongoing economic friction between the U.S. and China may lead to further volatility in the cryptocurrency market, as local currency systems gain traction [10]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that if governments strengthen the financial and security framework of the Eurozone, the Euro could become a viable alternative to the US Dollar, benefiting the G20 significantly [1][3]. Group 1: Euro's Global Role - The Euro's global role has stagnated for decades due to the lack of a robust financial system in the EU and insufficient willingness among governments for further integration [1][3]. - Lagarde emphasized that the Euro will not automatically gain influence and requires concerted efforts to enhance its global standing [1][3]. - Currently, the US Dollar accounts for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, the lowest in decades, while the Euro holds only 20% [3]. Group 2: Military and Economic Strength - Lagarde pointed out that to elevate the Euro's status, Europe must simultaneously enhance its military capabilities to support partnerships [3]. - She noted that investors, particularly official ones, seek geopolitical security and are inclined to invest in regions that can provide reliable security partnerships [3]. Group 3: Economic Reforms and Capital Markets - The need for deeper and more liquid capital markets in Europe was highlighted, along with the necessity for a stronger legal foundation and security capabilities to support open trade commitments [1][3]. - Lagarde stressed that internal economic reforms are urgent, as the Eurozone's capital markets remain fragmented and inefficient, lacking widely available safe assets for investors [3][4]. - She suggested that joint financing could provide a basis for gradually increasing the supply of safe assets in Europe, despite concerns from major Eurozone members about shared fiscal responsibilities [4]. Group 4: Ukraine's Currency Considerations - The Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine indicated that Ukraine is considering linking its currency more closely to the Euro instead of the Dollar, driven by increasing ties with Europe and global trade fragmentation [4]. - The shift towards the Euro is seen as complex and requires comprehensive preparation, although Euro-denominated transactions are gradually increasing in various sectors [4].