你有没有觉得最近的市场特别疯？昨天晚上我还在刷手机，看到比特币直接给我来了个20%的暴跌，整个人瞬间坐直。那一下，我脑子里第一个反应是，这 到底是币圈自己的事，还是外面的大背景动了手脚？ 我翻了下最近的消息，背后那根线很可能是中美关系。不是说光是两国吵吵就能影响币价，而是这次的贸易战已经不是对关税喊几句狠话了。美国商务部在 今年的出口数据里特别提到，中国的进口额在5月同比下降了6.7%，而美国对中国的出口也缩水。你别看这几个百分点，放在全球供应链里，就像突然有人 拔了根螺丝。 再想想美元的事。美联储这两个月加息的信号越来越弱，6月的联邦基金利率还保持在5.25%到5.50%之间，但市场的避险情绪并没有消退。路透社有分析 说，如果贸易战升级到所谓的"脱钩美元在部分地区的实际使用价值会下降。这事你可能觉得离自己远，但如果你手上的比特币最后只能兑成美元，而美元 在你消费的地方没法变成人民币，那它和虚拟游戏里的金币差别不大。 币价的波动，本来就很容易被宏观情绪推着走。尤其是那些大资金玩家，看到国际市场风向不对，会立刻撤出来保现金流。你想啊，一个比特币在6月中旬 还在68000美元左右，到了月底已经掉到54000多，跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that if governments strengthen the financial and security framework of the Eurozone, the Euro could become a viable alternative to the US Dollar, benefiting the G20 significantly [1][3]. Group 1: Euro's Global Role - The Euro's global role has stagnated for decades due to the lack of a robust financial system in the EU and insufficient willingness among governments for further integration [1][3]. - Lagarde emphasized that the Euro will not automatically gain influence and requires concerted efforts to enhance its global standing [1][3]. - Currently, the US Dollar accounts for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, the lowest in decades, while the Euro holds only 20% [3]. Group 2: Military and Economic Strength - Lagarde pointed out that to elevate the Euro's status, Europe must simultaneously enhance its military capabilities to support partnerships [3]. - She noted that investors, particularly official ones, seek geopolitical security and are inclined to invest in regions that can provide reliable security partnerships [3]. Group 3: Economic Reforms and Capital Markets - The need for deeper and more liquid capital markets in Europe was highlighted, along with the necessity for a stronger legal foundation and security capabilities to support open trade commitments [1][3]. - Lagarde stressed that internal economic reforms are urgent, as the Eurozone's capital markets remain fragmented and inefficient, lacking widely available safe assets for investors [3][4]. - She suggested that joint financing could provide a basis for gradually increasing the supply of safe assets in Europe, despite concerns from major Eurozone members about shared fiscal responsibilities [4]. Group 4: Ukraine's Currency Considerations - The Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine indicated that Ukraine is considering linking its currency more closely to the Euro instead of the Dollar, driven by increasing ties with Europe and global trade fragmentation [4]. - The shift towards the Euro is seen as complex and requires comprehensive preparation, although Euro-denominated transactions are gradually increasing in various sectors [4].