中美脱钩

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中美脱钩,还回得去么?
伍治坚证据主义· 2025-10-08 07:34
几年前,"中美脱钩"还只是智库里的概念。那时候,在中关村写代码的工程师、在上海外高桥装集装箱的工人、以及在硅谷写算法的工程师,都觉得这事离 自己很远。可如今,这个词已经从论文变成了现实:企业在搬、供应链在搬、资本在搬,甚至留学生也在搬。中美之间,曾经那条看不见却实实在在的经济 血管,正在被慢慢切断。 在过去的几年里,美国对中国的政策经历了一个从"接触"到"防范"的完整转型。奥巴马时代讲"合作共赢",特朗普时代打贸易战,而如今的华盛顿,已经 很少有人再谈"重新接触"。无论是共和党还是民主党,谈到中国都异常团结。就像桥水基金创始人达里奥说的那样:" 这场竞争不是谁对谁错,而是拼谁能 活得更久 。"这句话听起来很冷酷,但相当准确。 这一轮脱钩, 首先表现在 贸易 上 。美国对中国征收的高关税,从2018年开始就没真正撤过。2025年特朗普二度上台后,平均关税再度提升至 20%以上 ,部分行业甚至接近 30% 【1】。按道理讲,这样的关税水平足以让进口商品价格飙升,但美国的通胀并没有因此失控,因为企业早就在行动。他们把生 产线搬去了越南、墨西哥、和马来西亚。于是,美国超市里那件原本印着"Made in China"的 ...
特朗普终于承认失算?这是中国计谋!美财长:美国危机在台湾
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 10:00
Group 1 - The article discusses the shift of focus in the U.S. from its internal crises to the "China risk," particularly emphasizing the situation in Taiwan as a critical issue for U.S. national security [1][12]. - Trump's imposition of tariffs has backfired, leading to significant economic repercussions in the U.S., including a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 4.3% in February 2025, and an average additional monthly expense of $300 for American households due to tariffs [5][10]. - The manufacturing sector in the U.S. has seen a decline, with manufacturing's contribution to GDP dropping from 28% in 1965 to 8.4% currently, indicating a significant degradation of U.S. manufacturing capabilities [10]. Group 2 - The article highlights that China has effectively countered U.S. tariffs with targeted retaliatory measures, such as imposing 15% tariffs on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, impacting key Republican constituencies [5][7]. - The U.S. is heavily reliant on imports for steel and aluminum, with dependency rates of 12%-15% and 40%-45% respectively, which has led to increased costs in the automotive and machinery sectors, resulting in layoffs [7][10]. - The semiconductor industry is particularly vulnerable, with estimates suggesting that a complete withdrawal from China could result in a $320 billion loss for the semiconductor sector and a 40% decline in automotive production capacity [8][19]. Group 3 - The U.S. faces a strategic dilemma regarding its dependence on Taiwan for high-end chips, which account for 90% of global production, creating a potential supply chain crisis if tensions escalate in the Taiwan Strait [14][19]. - The article contrasts U.S. anxiety over chip supply with China's calm stance, advocating for equal and respectful dialogue rather than unilateral tariff impositions [16][19]. - The ongoing restructuring of the global semiconductor supply chain indicates that no country can quickly replace Taiwan's manufacturing capabilities, emphasizing the high costs of decoupling from China for U.S. consumers and businesses [19][21].
2020丨等待 2:30,印度封杀中国手机应用那一夜
晚点LatePost· 2025-09-26 00:35
Core Viewpoint - The Indian government's ban on 59 Chinese apps, including TikTok and WeChat, could lead to potential losses of up to $10 billion for the affected companies, with ByteDance estimated to lose around $6 billion [4][5][6]. Group 1: Impact of the Ban - The ban primarily affects apps developed by Chinese companies or those registered by Chinese nationals abroad, with TikTok being the most significant casualty due to its large user base in India [4][6]. - TikTok had over 100 million daily active users in India before the ban, making it the largest market for the app [6][8]. - The ban's execution is uncertain, with speculation on how it will be implemented, including potential removal from app stores and blocking by internet service providers [18][19]. Group 2: Market Context - The Indian market has been a focal point for Chinese internet companies since 2014, driven by its growth potential [20][21]. - Chinese companies have heavily invested in Indian tech startups, with 18 out of 30 unicorns having Chinese backing, amounting to over $3.5 billion [21]. - Despite the large user base, many Chinese companies face challenges in monetizing their services in India, which could limit the immediate financial impact of the ban [21]. Group 3: Historical Context and Signals - The ban follows a series of tensions between India and China, including border conflicts and public sentiment against Chinese products [16][17]. - Prior to the ban, there were indications of a growing backlash against Chinese apps, including a significant drop in TikTok's ratings on the Google Play Store [17][18]. - The Indian government has previously suggested banning TikTok due to concerns over content and security, indicating a long-standing scrutiny of Chinese apps [7][8]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The ban may not only impact internet companies but could also extend to Chinese electronics manufacturers operating in India, potentially affecting major players like Huawei and ZTE [24][25]. - The Indian government's actions reflect a broader trend of decoupling from China, which could have lasting effects on trade and investment between the two countries [24][25]. - The situation highlights the complexities of operating in international markets, where geopolitical factors increasingly influence business operations [24][26].
继续关注消费建材触底回升 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-08-25 00:57
Core Viewpoint - The construction materials sector is experiencing mixed performance, with cement prices showing slight increases but overall demand recovery remaining slow due to various factors, including weather conditions and market liquidity [1][6]. Cement Industry - The national high-standard cement market price is 342.7 yuan/ton, up by 2.3 yuan/ton from last week but down by 35.7 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2024 [1][3]. - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 64.6%, down by 1.8 percentage points from last week and down by 2.2 percentage points from 2024 [1][3]. - The average cement shipment rate is 45.7%, down by 0.1 percentage points from last week and down by 2.7 percentage points from 2024 [1][3]. - Some regions have seen price increases, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta (+20.0 yuan/ton) and the Yangtze River Basin (+12.9 yuan/ton) [3]. - The industry is expected to maintain a steady upward price trend, supported by a consensus on supply discipline among leading enterprises [6]. Glass Industry - The average price of float glass is 1205.8 yuan/ton, down by 29.9 yuan/ton from last week and down by 216.2 yuan/ton from 2024 [3]. - The inventory of float glass among sample enterprises is 5.636 million heavy boxes, up by 280,000 heavy boxes from last week but down by 4.51 million heavy boxes from 2024 [3]. - The industry is expected to see a supply-side contraction, which may improve the short-term supply-demand balance [9]. Fiberglass Industry - The domestic market for electronic fiberglass cloth is stable, with mainstream prices for G75 products ranging from 8300 to 9200 yuan/ton [3]. - The market for ordinary fiberglass remains resilient, with demand in wind power and thermoplastics continuing to grow [7]. - The valuation of leading companies in the fiberglass sector is at historical lows, with potential for recovery as supply-demand balance improves [7]. Renovation and Building Materials - The government is expected to continue promoting domestic demand and consumption, with policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [10]. - The demand for home improvement and building materials is anticipated to improve, supported by government subsidies and consumer confidence [10]. - Leading companies in the sector are exploring new models and extending their industrial chains to enhance efficiency and pricing power [10].
现在市场走到哪个阶段?
2025-08-19 14:44
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market is characterized by a seasonal pattern in the bond market, with a higher probability of interest rate declines from December to early February, followed by potential adjustments in late January or mid-February to March or late April [1][3][4] - The bond market is not in a bear market but is in a mid-bull market position, influenced by weak fundamentals and ample liquidity, despite increased volatility due to static yield insufficiency and dynamic duration issues [1][5][6] Economic Conditions - Domestic fundamentals have weakened, with retail sales and real estate investment data declining, while industrial production remains resilient, with July's industrial value-added growing by 5.7% year-on-year [1][10] - The GDP growth rate is approximately 4.9%, indicating economic pressure and the need for future policy adjustments [1][10] - Manufacturing investment has significantly declined due to tariffs and anti-involution policies, leading companies to focus more on cash flow and overseas production [1][12] Market Dynamics - The equity market has performed strongly since July, while the bond market has shown relative weakness, indicating a complex relationship rather than a simple "stock-bond seesaw" phenomenon [2][7] - The macroeconomic situation in 2025 resembles a combination of 2019 and 2020, with low coupon rates posing significant challenges [6][9] Policy Implications - The central bank's focus has shifted from total credit volume to maintaining the health and safety of the banking system, making interest rate cuts more challenging [16] - There is an expectation of increased fiscal or quasi-fiscal policy measures around late October, particularly in response to rising economic pressures [15][20] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on cyclical sectors such as non-bank financials, metals, and coal, while also monitoring the domestic capital expenditure (CAPEX) trends in the third quarter [19] - Caution is advised in sectors with poor performance and no signs of recovery, with a preference for sectors showing positive momentum [19] Consumer Market Trends - The consumer market is experiencing a slowdown in retail sales growth, particularly in durable goods, while service consumption remains resilient, with a 5.8% year-on-year growth in the service production index for July [10][14] - The shift in policy focus from goods to services is evident, as the government aims to support service consumption amid declining goods sales [13][14] Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain interest rates below 2%, with significant resistance anticipated at the 1.5% level based on historical trends from the U.S. and Japan [28][29] - The current macroeconomic environment suggests that while there may be fluctuations, a significant downturn in the bond market is not expected [28][29] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious yet optimistic, with a focus on structural policies aimed at enhancing domestic demand and addressing demographic challenges [20][25]
PMI走弱,需求侧等待新政策
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 04:32
Group 1: Cement Industry - The national high-standard cement market price is 339.7 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton from last week and down 42.5 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [1][2] - The average cement inventory of sample enterprises is 66.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from last week and down 0.9 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [2] - The average cement shipment rate is 44.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from last week but down 2.0 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [2] Group 2: Glass Industry - The average price of float glass is 1295.3 yuan/ton, up 56.7 yuan/ton from last week but down 175.7 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [2] - The inventory of float glass in 13 provinces is 5,178 million heavy boxes, down 156 million heavy boxes from last week and down 1,025 million heavy boxes from the same period in 2024 [2] - The market for electronic glass fiber remains stable, with mainstream prices for G75 products at 8,800-9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Recommendations - The construction materials sector saw a decline of 2.31% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and the Wind All A Index declined by 1.75% and 1.09%, respectively [1] - The industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability due to improved supply-demand balance and potential policy support, with leading companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement recommended for investment [5][6] - The glass fiber market is anticipated to benefit from technological upgrades and increased demand in high-end applications, with companies like Zhongcai Technology and Honghe Technology highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6]
PMI走弱,需求侧等待新政策 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-08-04 03:37
Group 1 - The national high-standard cement market price is 339.7 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton from last week and down 42.5 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [1][3] - The average cement inventory of sample enterprises is 66.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from last week and down 0.9 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [3] - The average cement shipment rate is 44.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from last week but down 2.0 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [3] Group 2 - The construction materials sector (SW) decreased by 2.31% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Wind All A indices decreased by 1.75% and 1.09%, respectively [2] - The average price of float glass is 1295.3 yuan/ton, up 56.7 yuan/ton from last week but down 175.7 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [3] - The domestic non-alkali roving market price is stable, with mainstream transaction prices ranging from 3200 to 3700 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from last week [3] Group 3 - The real estate industry has shown signs of recovery, with the added value of the real estate sector turning positive, indicating a clearing in the supply chain [4][5] - The cement and glass industries are recommended for investment due to their potential benefits from demand recovery and industry consolidation [5][6] - The glass fiber market is expected to see growth in high-end products due to technological advancements and increased demand in sectors like wind power and new energy vehicles [7][8] Group 4 - The construction materials sector is experiencing a supply-side contraction, which is expected to improve the short-term supply-demand balance [9] - The government is expected to continue promoting domestic demand and consumption, which will positively impact the home improvement and building materials market [10][11] - Companies with strong growth intentions and those benefiting from national subsidy policies are recommended for investment [11]
美国贸易代表:美国可以和中国“脱钩”,但中国不能抛售美债!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-02 20:26
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. expresses a desire to sever ties with China while simultaneously relying on China to hold significant amounts of U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting a contradiction in U.S. policy [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - U.S. officials frequently mention "decoupling," aiming to restrict China's technological growth and impose tariffs to maintain U.S. dominance [3]. - The U.S. has previously imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods, with some reaching 104%, to benefit from globalization while limiting China's advantages [3]. - Despite selling some U.S. Treasury bonds, China still holds $859.4 billion, making it a major creditor to the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Global Economic Impact - The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese-held Treasury bonds as a cheap borrowing method, and large-scale selling by China could destabilize the U.S. financial market [3]. - The U.S. strategy of "decoupling" is causing its allies, such as Europe and Japan, to reconsider their economic ties with China, as they recognize the importance of the Chinese market [3]. - The U.S. approach to trade as a weapon is disrupting global supply chains and contributing to rising prices, ultimately harming the U.S. economy [3].
周度策略行业配置观点:过滤噪声,以“稳”为主-20250616
Great Wall Securities· 2025-06-16 08:35
Key Points - The report emphasizes a cautious investment strategy focusing on stability amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][2] - Recent events include US-China trade talks in London, disappointing US CPI data, and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel [1][8] - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance at 3400 points, while sectors like new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and precious metals demonstrated resilience [1][8] Weekly Event Review - The US-China trade discussions did not yield substantial agreements, indicating a prolonged negotiation period on tariffs and export controls [2][9] - The US CPI for May rose by 2.4%, below expectations, while non-farm employment increased by 139,000, suggesting a mixed economic outlook [9] - The military conflict between Iran and Israel intensified, with significant airstrikes and retaliatory actions, raising concerns over regional stability [9] Trading Data - The report notes an increase in average daily trading volume to 1.37 trillion yuan during the week [1][8] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong defensive characteristics and stable earnings, particularly: - **Gold**: Driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, gold prices have surged, breaking through $3,400 per ounce [3][17] - **Banking Sector**: The banking sector is viewed as a stable investment due to resilient earnings and attractive dividends, providing a safe haven for investors [3][18] - **Hydropower**: The hydropower sector is highlighted for its stable cost structure and consistent cash flow, making it a preferred choice for risk-averse investors [3][18]
美企对中国市场仍有信心
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-13 20:52
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes that despite the pressures from US-China trade tensions, most American companies operating in China do not intend to withdraw from the market, reflecting a "realistic" decision-making logic focused on market orientation and efficiency [1] - The narrative of "decoupling" between the US and China is increasingly challenged by the actions of American business executives who are visiting China and increasing investments, indicating a belief that "cooperation outweighs differences" in US-China economic relations [1][2] - China's comprehensive manufacturing system, complete infrastructure, and efficient logistics network provide unique advantages that are difficult for other countries to replicate, supporting the notion that "local manufacturing and local sales" are crucial for multinational companies seeking sustainable growth [1] Group 2 - China's innovation system is continuously improving, making it a significant destination for global companies' R&D investments, with many US firms establishing R&D centers in China to engage in local innovation ecosystems [2] - The Chinese government is committed to institutional openness and optimizing the business environment, which includes enhancing market transparency and reducing the negative list for foreign investment, thus providing foreign companies with broader development opportunities [2] - In the face of global economic recovery pressures and structural adjustments, American companies recognize that intentional "decoupling" contradicts market principles and undermines their competitiveness in the global market, advocating for pragmatic cooperation instead [2]