美元收割
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温铁军:美元如何收割全世界?中国经济三次阵痛背后的收割逻辑
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-05 11:09
Core Insights - The article argues that the true driver of the global economy is the US dollar, not institutions like the UN or IMF, and highlights a pattern of financial exploitation by the US over the past three decades [1] - It emphasizes that the US engages in financial manipulation rather than genuine economic development, leading to repeated crises in countries like China [1][14] Group 1: Historical Context - After the 2008 financial crisis, the US implemented significant quantitative easing (QE), injecting over 60% of new dollar liquidity into global markets, which caused commodity prices, including oil, to surge dramatically [3][5] - China, as the largest importer of raw materials and energy, was particularly affected by these price increases, leading to inflationary pressures [5][6] Group 2: Economic Impact - The influx of dollars led to "input-type inflation" in China, where local manufacturers faced rising costs while trying to compete in a global market dominated by US monetary policy [6][12] - The US's strategy of withdrawing liquidity through interest rate hikes and QE cessation resulted in a sharp decline in oil prices, adversely impacting exporting countries and leading to production overcapacity in China [8][14] Group 3: Dollar's Global Role - The dollar's status as the global reserve currency allows the US to dictate terms in international trade, particularly in commodities like oil, which must be purchased in dollars [10][12] - The US's financial maneuvers not only affect its own economy but also have significant repercussions for other nations, particularly those reliant on exports and foreign investment [12][16] Group 4: Strategic Implications - The article outlines a three-step process of financial exploitation by the US: first, through liquidity and commodity price manipulation; second, by compelling foreign entities to invest in US debt; and third, by leveraging this debt to gain influence over foreign infrastructure and policies [16] - The US's military presence and financial dominance serve as a strategic tool to maintain its economic hegemony, effectively isolating nations that challenge its authority [16][18] Group 5: Future Considerations - The article concludes that China must reassess its economic strategies and not solely focus on GDP growth, as financial warfare poses a significant threat to its industrial base [18][20] - It advocates for a shift towards reclaiming economic sovereignty and reducing dependency on the US dollar to prevent future crises [20]
中国的财政部,要干美联储发行美元美债的事了。美国别想收割世界
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-03 08:46
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Finance plans to issue USD-denominated sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, with a scale not exceeding 40 billion, marking a significant move in the context of US-China negotiations [1] Group 1: Financial Mechanisms and Policies - The second meeting of the joint working group between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China signifies a new phase of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, aiming to create a unique macro-control system [3] - The resumption of central bank operations in government bond trading is expected to provide monetary support for growth policies in the fourth quarter of 2024 [8][10] - The issuance of offshore RMB bonds is a key strategy to enhance the role of Hong Kong as a major offshore RMB center, providing stable RMB asset options for foreign investors [10][26] Group 2: Debt Structure and Economic Comparison - China's total M2 money supply reached 304 trillion RMB (approximately 42.1 trillion USD) by Q3 2025, significantly higher than the US's 20.8 trillion USD, yet maintaining moderate CPI growth [12] - As of 2025, China's total government debt is 92.6 trillion RMB (approximately 12.3 trillion USD), with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.64%, contrasting with the US's 127% ratio [15][18] - Unlike the US, where debt is primarily used for consumption, about 60% of China's government debt is allocated to high-quality assets like transportation and energy [12][15] Group 3: Internationalization of RMB - The RMB internationalization index reached 5.68% in 2025, making it the third-largest international currency, but still trailing behind the US dollar [20] - The proportion of RMB settlements in trade with countries along the Belt and Road has increased from 15% in 2020 to 28% in 2025, particularly in energy trade [22] - The use of RMB in energy cooperation with Russia has exceeded 45%, showcasing a successful model that is being replicated in other regions [24] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Global Impact - The offshore RMB center in Hong Kong saw a trading volume of 8.6 trillion RMB in the first half of 2025, a 35% increase from the previous year, enhancing its role as a cross-border payment hub [26] - The exploration of a financial development path distinct from the US aims to provide a more stable global economic environment, countering the "harvesting" model associated with US dollar dominance [27]