全球宏观及大类资产配置周报 东证衍生品研究院 宏观策略组 2025年12月29日 上海东证期货有限公司 目录 一、宏观脉络追踪 二、全球大类资产走势一览 三、大类资产周度展望 ——贵金属、外汇、美股、A股、国债 四、全球宏观经济数据跟踪 一、宏观脉络追踪 圣诞节假期前后海外市场交易清淡，宏观消息有限，风险偏好温和回升。本周公布的美国三季度GDP远超 市场预期，主要由居民消费支撑，首申数据也小幅回落，就业市场仍未显著恶化，经济数据维持韧性支撑 市场风险偏好。另一方面，特朗普即将公布新任美联储主席人选，哈塞特当选概率仍然领先，美联储面临 的政治压力增大，短期通胀担忧缓解后，市场对于未来流动性释放保持乐观，美债收益率曲线持续走陡， 资金投机热情高涨，金属板块涨势凶猛，短期波动难以降低，注意下跌风险。 短期国内宏观利空有限，市场对于经济数据的走弱已有充分预期，北京市优化房地产的政策则对市场形成 提振，商业航天、锂电、算力、有色等各类热点题材均有所表现，预计后续股市行情震荡偏积极。 二、全球大类资产走势一览 全球大类资产走势一览——权益市场 | | 截至2025/12/26 | 近三个月走势 | 近一周涨跌幅 | 当月 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Global financial markets are entering a typical year-end trading rhythm, with liquidity tightening and a mixed sentiment of risk appetite and safe-haven demand [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed resilience, rising over 200 points on Monday, with financial and materials sectors leading the performance [1][3] - The market is expected to finish the year on a stable and slightly positive note, despite the holiday trading period [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold continues to serve as a core asset in the macro hedging system, maintaining a strong performance with a nearly 70% increase year-to-date, marking one of the strongest annual performances since the late 1970s [2] - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing uncertainties in tariff policies, ongoing central bank purchases, and strong demand from ETFs and physical markets as key supports for the current gold bull market [2] - The upward trend in gold prices is expected to remain solid as long as quarterly demand stays above critical levels, with no signs of a slowdown in central bank and long-term fund allocations [2] Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to gain momentum ahead of the holidays, with AI-related stocks attracting attention and financial and materials sectors showing strong performance [3] - The market is attempting to approach phase highs within a limited year-end trading window, but liquidity constraints are becoming more apparent [3] - Investors are actively reducing risk exposure while participating in year-end trading, preparing for the next phase of market conditions [3] Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent inflation data has not provided clear guidance, with some key components missing due to government shutdowns, leading to cautious market sentiment regarding CPI reports [4] - Expectations for further rate cuts remain, but pricing of policy paths has slowed, with the Fed likely to maintain a reserved stance on the inflation report [4] - Upcoming ADP employment and GDP data are viewed as the last significant macro indicators before the holidays, with current ADP employment numbers indicating a weak labor market trend [4] Group 5: Interest Rates and Bond Market - Traders are increasing bullish positions on U.S. Treasuries, betting on a decline in 10-year Treasury yields to around 4%, reflecting ongoing concerns about economic slowdown and policy shifts [5] - Large asset management firms are signaling a defensive stance by increasing cash holdings and reducing leverage, indicating heightened caution towards high valuation environments and geopolitical risks [5] - The market is characterized by a complex structure of rising risk appetite and safe-haven demand, emphasizing the importance of position management and rhythm control [5] Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The current global market dynamics are shaped by year-end risk appetite, policy uncertainties, and geopolitical factors [6] - U.S. stocks are supported by a rate-cut environment and year-end sentiment, while gold continues to operate within historical high ranges due to safe-haven demand and structural allocation forces [6] - The market is likely to maintain a structurally volatile pattern until key data and policy paths become clearer, with the sustainability of asset price trends needing further validation through upcoming events [6]

中国规上工业企业利润累计增速连续三个月保持增长 中新社北京11月27日电 (记者 王恩博)中国国家统计局27日公布，1至10月份，中国规模以上工业企业利 润同比增长1.9%，自今年8月以来累计增速连续三个月保持增长。 国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁表示，1至10月，规模以上工业企业营业收入同比增长1.8%，营业 收入持续保持增长，为工业企业盈利恢复创造有利条件。 1至10月，规模以上装备制造业利润同比增长7.8%，拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增长2.8个百分点； 实现利润总额占全部规模以上工业企业利润总额比重达38.5%，较上年同期提高2.0个百分点。从行业 看，1至10月，装备制造业的8个大类行业中有7个行业利润实现同比增长，其中，铁路船舶航空航天、 电子行业利润两位数增长。 1至10月，规模以上高技术制造业利润同比增长8.0%，高于全部规模以上工业平均水平6.1个百分点。从 行业看，智能电子制造发展向好，智能无人飞行器制造、智能车载设备制造行业利润分别增长 116.1%、114.9%；半导体制造效益增长较快，集成电路制造、电子专用材料制造、半导体分立器件制 造行业利润分别增长89.2%、86.0%、17 ...

Inflation Trends - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking a significant increase from the previous values of -0.3% and 1% respectively[6] - The tourism CPI in October was notably high at 2.1%, influenced by the Mid-Autumn Festival, compared to 0.9% in the previous month[6] - Food prices showed a year-on-year decrease of -2.9% in October, an improvement from -4.4% in September, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[6] Policy Impact - Government consumption policies have shown a substantial leverage effect, with industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy rising by 2.0%, up from 1.8% in the previous month[6] - The PPI decreased at a slower rate of -2.1% year-on-year in October, an improvement from -2.3% in September, reflecting effective supply-side policies[6] - The prices in traditional high-energy-consuming industries improved, with the PPI for the mining and raw materials sectors increasing by 1.2 and 0.4 percentage points respectively[6] Future Outlook - Despite expected inflation declines post-holiday, the effects of various policies are anticipated to continue supporting economic growth, shifting the focus from external to high-quality domestic demand[6] - The implementation of policy-driven financial tools by the end of October is expected to further enhance domestic demand, with tangible results reflected in upcoming data[6] - Risks remain, particularly from geopolitical conflicts that could lead to unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices[6]

Core Insights - The article argues that the true driver of the global economy is the US dollar, not institutions like the UN or IMF, and highlights a pattern of financial exploitation by the US over the past three decades [1] - It emphasizes that the US engages in financial manipulation rather than genuine economic development, leading to repeated crises in countries like China [1][14] Group 1: Historical Context - After the 2008 financial crisis, the US implemented significant quantitative easing (QE), injecting over 60% of new dollar liquidity into global markets, which caused commodity prices, including oil, to surge dramatically [3][5] - China, as the largest importer of raw materials and energy, was particularly affected by these price increases, leading to inflationary pressures [5][6] Group 2: Economic Impact - The influx of dollars led to "input-type inflation" in China, where local manufacturers faced rising costs while trying to compete in a global market dominated by US monetary policy [6][12] - The US's strategy of withdrawing liquidity through interest rate hikes and QE cessation resulted in a sharp decline in oil prices, adversely impacting exporting countries and leading to production overcapacity in China [8][14] Group 3: Dollar's Global Role - The dollar's status as the global reserve currency allows the US to dictate terms in international trade, particularly in commodities like oil, which must be purchased in dollars [10][12] - The US's financial maneuvers not only affect its own economy but also have significant repercussions for other nations, particularly those reliant on exports and foreign investment [12][16] Group 4: Strategic Implications - The article outlines a three-step process of financial exploitation by the US: first, through liquidity and commodity price manipulation; second, by compelling foreign entities to invest in US debt; and third, by leveraging this debt to gain influence over foreign infrastructure and policies [16] - The US's military presence and financial dominance serve as a strategic tool to maintain its economic hegemony, effectively isolating nations that challenge its authority [16][18] Group 5: Future Considerations - The article concludes that China must reassess its economic strategies and not solely focus on GDP growth, as financial warfare poses a significant threat to its industrial base [18][20] - It advocates for a shift towards reclaiming economic sovereignty and reducing dependency on the US dollar to prevent future crises [20]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI reading in September shows a seasonal rebound, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions compared to August, primarily due to the concentration of production replenishment in September driven by anti-involution effects [1] Manufacturing Sector - The improvement in the manufacturing sector is mainly reflected in production, finished goods inventory, and new export orders [1] - However, there are signs of a slowdown in domestic demand and price indicators, suggesting low consumer acceptance of price increases, with PPI likely to decline on a month-on-month basis [1] - Certain raw material industries and capital goods-related sectors are performing well, but the ex-factory price index in key anti-involution industries has generally fallen below 50 [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI in September shows a widening gap compared to historical levels, primarily due to a decline in the service sector's performance [1] - This decline may be linked to a slight downturn in the employment market and extreme weather events such as typhoons [1] Economic Outlook - Overall, while there is a marginal recovery in manufacturing sentiment in September, there is a decline in service and domestic demand-related indicators [1] - Looking ahead, it is anticipated that incremental policy tools will be implemented in the fourth quarter to support stable economic operations [1]

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - In Q2 2025, the Hang Seng Technology Index showed the highest revenue and net profit growth rates among major Hong Kong indices, with revenue growth at 14.43% and net profit growth at 16.18% [1][2] - Excluding Alibaba, JD Group, and Meituan, the net profit growth rates for the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index were -1.04%, 3.88%, and 25.34% respectively [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - The materials, healthcare, and information technology sectors led in net profit growth rates, with the information technology sector showing a Q2 net profit growth of 29.67% [3][4] - The ROE (TTM) for the information technology sector increased by 2.44 percentage points to 13.18% compared to the same period last year [3] Group 3: Consumer Sector Performance - Non-essential consumer sector net profit growth significantly declined to 3.10% in Q2 2025 from 44.64% in Q1, with AI-driven companies performing well [4][5] - The media and entertainment sector saw a net profit growth of 32.27%, driven by AI business, with advertising and publishing sectors showing substantial increases [5] Group 4: Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector's net profit growth was 5.02% in Q2 2025, recovering from a -2.56% decline in Q1, with securities and brokerage net profit growth at 73.80% [7] - The banking sector's net profit growth was -0.11%, indicating continued pressure on traditional banking profitability [7] Group 5: Healthcare Sector Performance - The healthcare sector's net profit growth reached 42.50% in Q2 2025, up from 26.47% in Q1, with significant improvements in ROE [6] Group 6: Energy and Materials Sector Performance - The energy sector experienced a net profit decline of 19.36% in Q2 2025, worsening from -12.63% in Q1 [8] - The materials sector showed strong performance with a net profit growth of 50.78%, supported by high ROE levels [8]

Economic Performance - Hunan's economy continues to show a stable and positive trend, with industrial added value increasing by 8% year-on-year from January to July, which is 1 percentage point faster than the same period last year [1] - The equipment manufacturing and raw materials industries saw added value growth of 12% and 9.1% respectively, contributing 3.8 percentage points and 2.1 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Hunan increased by 2.9% year-on-year, which is 0.3 percentage points faster than the first half of the year [1] - Private investment grew by 6%, outpacing the first half of the year by 0.6 percentage points and the same period last year by 4.1 percentage points [1] - Investment in equipment and tools rose by 28.4%, which is 19.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year, contributing 2.9 percentage points to total investment growth [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Hunan increased by 6.2% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the first half of the year [1] - Retail sales of automotive products by large wholesale and retail enterprises grew by 1.3%, marking the first positive growth this year, with a notable increase of 10.6% in July [1] - Retail sales of essential consumer goods by large wholesale and retail enterprises rose by 10.4% year-on-year, with a 4.6% increase in July, which is 1.3 percentage points faster than the previous month [1] High-tech Industry Growth - The added value of Hunan's high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with aerospace and equipment manufacturing growing by 27.3% and electronic and communication equipment manufacturing by 18.4% [2] - Investment in high-tech industries grew by 5.5%, which is 2.6 percentage points faster than the overall investment growth rate, while high-tech manufacturing investment increased by 8.2% [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and its performance in 2025, with a focus on various sectors including healthcare, non-essential consumer goods, and financial services [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy**: There is a strong expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, with a probability exceeding 80% for two or more rate cuts by the end of the year. This is anticipated to lower the U.S. risk-free rate, attracting foreign capital into the Hong Kong market, thus providing liquidity support [1][2][5][6]. - **Sector Performance**: - The healthcare and non-essential consumer sectors have seen significant increases in trading activity in 2025, with healthcare nearly doubling in performance [3][9]. - The financial sector experienced a peak in trading volume in July but saw a decline in August. Despite this, it is the closest to breaking historical highs, with only a 3% gap remaining [3][13][14]. - Most sectors are still valued below the historical 50th percentile, indicating potential investment opportunities [3][11][12]. - **Market Valuation**: The overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market remains attractive, with high dividend yields providing a safety net for investors. Most sectors have a PE ratio below the 50th percentile, except for real estate, construction, and telecommunications, which are above this threshold [3][11][12]. - **Future Market Outlook**: The expectation is that the Hong Kong stock market will perform better over the next decade compared to the past ten years, with economic growth correlating positively with stock market returns. The market is anticipated to rebound ahead of the real estate sector during downturns [3][8][16]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Inflation Risks**: The Federal Reserve views the impact of tariffs as likely temporary, but there are concerns about rising wages and consumer inflation expectations that could pose long-term inflation risks. Current data suggests these risks are low [7]. - **Real Estate Sector Challenges**: The real estate and construction sectors are currently the furthest from historical highs and face challenges despite recent policy support aimed at stabilizing the market [15]. - **Investment Preferences**: There is a noted preference among large funds, such as insurance companies, for high dividend yield assets in a low-interest-rate environment, which enhances the attractiveness of these investments [12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Hong Kong stock market and its various sectors.

Group 1: Inflation Trends - July CPI year-on-year growth was 0%, while core CPI growth was 0.8%, compared to previous values of 0.1% and 0.7% respectively[5] - Food prices are expected to exert downward pressure on CPI, with July food CPI at -1.6%[5] - The core CPI is anticipated to continue rising due to policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving living standards[5] Group 2: Policy Impact - Policies promoting consumption are expected to support high-end consumer goods and high-tech industries, maintaining elevated price indices[5] - The construction of a unified market and enhanced competition review is projected to help traditional and emerging industries recover prices[5] - The "anti-involution" policies are broadening their impact across various sectors, leading to positive changes in PPI, especially in technology and domestic demand-driven sectors[5] Group 3: PPI Performance - July PPI for certain sectors like arts and crafts, sports equipment, and nutritional food manufacturing showed year-on-year growth of at least 1.3%[5] - However, PPI in the mining sector remains under pressure, with July mining PPI at -14%[5] - External trade environment deterioration is causing PPI declines in key export sectors, with July PPI for general equipment manufacturing at -1.6%[5]