1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For global major assets, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. Domestically, the risk preference is increasing as the process of household deposit transfer is ongoing. It is recommended to focus more on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major assets. Specific attention should be paid to CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds and precious metals. Additionally, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased to some extent, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be observed [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomy - **Overseas Macro**: In the US, retail and import prices in August exceeded expectations, while the real estate market in September was sluggish. The Fed's interest - rate meeting on the early morning of September 18th is a key event. After the lower - than - expected non - farm payroll data, the August inflation data provides another reason for the Fed to cut interest rates. The intensifying personnel turmoil among Fed governors also boosts the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: It is necessary to observe the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is stable, supporting infrastructure demand to some extent. However, there is a risk that more special bonds may be used for debt resolution rather than physical work. The implementation rhythm of the 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments is uncertain, which may postpone the demand pulse of commodity physical consumption to the end of the fourth quarter. Investors in financial assets are recommended to focus on the process of household deposit transfer and inflation changes [7]. 3.2 Asset Views - **General Recommendation**: In major assets, more attention should be paid to liquidity - sensitive risk assets. Specific attention should be given to CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds and precious metals. The allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and fourth - quarter allocation opportunities can be considered [7]. 3.3 Viewpoint Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence, and the market is expected to be volatile with the decline of incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy, and the market is expected to be volatile with the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the market is expected to be volatile with risks such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increasing risk of the Fed's independence drive the price up, and the market is expected to rise with fluctuations, depending on the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.3.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is no upward momentum due to loading pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, and the decline rate of freight rates in September should be monitored [8]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: There are rumors of production restrictions, and the upward trend of the market has slowed down. The market is expected to be volatile, and factors such as the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production should be monitored [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Port transactions have increased, and the price is fluctuating. The market is expected to be volatile, and factors such as changes in port inventory, policy dynamics should be observed [8]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has been implemented, and market expectations have improved. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on steel production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Downstream replenishment has started, and spot transactions have improved. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The expectation of "anti - involution" is rising, and the cost side provides support. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The expectation of "anti - involution" is rising, and attention should be paid to steel procurement pricing. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Macro - sentiment has improved, and spot prices have started to rise. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Downstream replenishment before the festival has led to a slight rebound in spot prices. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on soda ash inventory [8]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: There are new disturbances in copper ore supply, and the copper price is expected to rise with fluctuations, depending on supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed's stance, and domestic demand recovery [8]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weakening, and inventory is accumulating. The price is under pressure and expected to be volatile, depending on ore production resumption, electrolytic aluminum production recovery, and sector trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is expected to be volatile, depending on macro - risks, supply disturbances, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is expected to be volatile, depending on macro - risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead has decreased, and the price is expected to rise with fluctuations, depending on supply disturbances and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has banned illegal mining, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely, depending on macro - and geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the market has risen significantly. The price is expected to be volatile, depending on Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the price is at a high level and expected to be volatile, depending on the resumption of production and demand improvement expectations [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is continuously increasing, suppressing the upward space of the price. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on supply reduction and photovoltaic installation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamental driving force is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile, depending on demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply - demand imbalance is obvious, and the market is expected to decline with fluctuations, depending on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Valuation repair has been realized, and attention should be paid to the cost side. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Option positions are concentrated at 3500, and the price rebounds following crude oil. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on sanctions and supply disturbances [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitics, it rebounds weakly following crude oil. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates following crude oil. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: The contradiction between near - and far - term contracts is large, and the market is expected to be volatile, depending on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: It returns to the fundamental level and is under downward pressure, waiting for new positive factors. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on export implementation and market sentiment [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is pessimistic about future production capacity expansion. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device implementation [10]. - **PX**: The fundamental driving force is limited, and the price follows the cost. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and demand during peak seasons [10]. - **PTA**: The willingness to hold goods is low, and spot liquidity is abundant, suppressing the basis. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and peak - season demand [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Raw material support is general, and processing fees have recovered. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on downstream yarn - mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The off - season of demand is deepening, which restricts the market. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and terminal demand [10]. - **Propylene**: The reduction in propane and PL commodity volume has boosted the price, and it is slightly stronger in the short term. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [10]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low, and the market is expected to be volatile, depending on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Peak - season demand provides slight support, and the market is expected to be volatile, depending on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: The reality is weak, but expectations are strong. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have peaked and declined, and the market is cautiously bearish. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.3.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment has weakened, and prices may continue to adjust. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices are dragging down the market, and the futures price is testing the lower - bound support. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and trade relations [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: There has been continuous rainfall recently, and attention should be paid to grain quality. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Hogs**: The policy of reducing weight and limiting production continues, and the near - term contracts are under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: It is adjusting downward following the overall commodity market. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has returned to a weak trend. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is fluctuating slightly, and attention should be paid to purchase prices. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is fluctuating slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on imports [10]. - **Pulp**: Market sentiment is stable, and the price is in a range - bound fluctuation. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on macro - economic changes and overseas quotes [10]. - **Offset Paper**: There is limited upward momentum, and the price is fluctuating within a narrow range. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production [10]. - **Logs**: Processing demand has slightly recovered, and spot prices may rise. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on shipments and dispatches [10].