中金研报称，我们认为，鉴于当前美元流动性体系运行规律和大财政趋势所形成的强约束，选择谁作为 美联储主席都很难撼动资产负债表常态化扩张。全球资产的牛市有持续的可能，今年内我们继续看好受 益于美元流动性趋势性改善的中美股市和金银铜。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The discussion centers around the Chinese economy and stock market, particularly focusing on the year 2026 as a pivotal point for China's return to prosperity, drawing parallels with historical trends in the United States and Japan during their industrialization phases [2][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Recovery and Growth**: 2026 is anticipated to mark the beginning of China's return to prosperity, driven by a per capita GDP exceeding $10,000, which signifies a mature industrial phase. This is expected to enhance manufacturing export capabilities and improve domestic consumption [2][5][6]. 2. **Impact of U.S. Federal Reserve Policies**: The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and quantitative easing (QE) are expected to increase global liquidity, facilitating the return of cross-border capital to China, which will support the appreciation of the Renminbi and aid in the recovery of the balance sheets of the real economy [2][4][7]. 3. **Commodity Supercycle**: A supercycle for commodities began in April 2025, driven by abundant global liquidity. The focus should initially be on PPI manufacturing sectors, followed by CPI consumer sectors as monetary policies are implemented [2][8][14]. 4. **Technology Sector Outlook**: The technology sector remains a strong investment theme, with a focus on humanoid robots, AI applications, and new consumption trends. A dynamic scoring model is suggested for adjusting investment strategies in this sector [2][9][17][18]. 5. **Industry Configuration Recommendations**: Suggested sectors for investment include: - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Gold, silver, and copper, benefiting from global liquidity [2][10][19]. - **New and Consumer Sectors**: Food and beverage, tourism, and travel, which are expected to see growth due to improved consumer sentiment [2][10][19]. - **High-end Manufacturing**: Including power equipment, chemicals, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals, which are projected to have strong growth potential [2][10][19]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Renminbi Exchange Rate Trends**: The Renminbi is expected to enter a medium to long-term appreciation cycle, supported by an increase in the current account surplus due to rising export levels. This trend is anticipated to be reinforced by the return of previously exited capital [2][12]. 2. **Manufacturing Sector Resilience**: China's manufacturing sector is expected to be re-evaluated positively, benefiting from improved cash flows and competitive advantages in exports, particularly during the Renminbi appreciation phase [2][13]. 3. **Cyclical Industry Dynamics**: The cyclical industries are expected to experience a transition from a bear to a bull market, driven by improved cash flows and consumer sentiment as national wealth returns [2][16]. 4. **Market Performance Context**: Despite a global bull market since 2020, the A-share market faced challenges from 2022 to 2024 due to capital outflows caused by U.S. interest rate hikes. However, the outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of new highs in market indices [2][10][11]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the anticipated economic recovery in China, the implications of U.S. monetary policy, and the strategic sectors for investment as the market evolves towards 2026.

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52% to close at 3882.78 points on September 30, with a peak of 3887.57 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.35% to close at 13526.51 points, reaching a high of 13598.18 points [1] - The ChiNext Index showed minimal fluctuation, closing at 3238.16 points, with a maximum of 3279.02 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return for stock ETFs on September 30 was 0.73% [2] - The top-performing scale index ETF was the GF Securities SSE STAR 100 Enhanced Strategy ETF, with a return of 3.48% [2] - The highest return among industry index ETFs was the China Securities Index Subdivision Nonferrous Metals Industry Theme ETF, at 4.17% [2] - The top strategy index ETF was the China Securities Index 500 Free Cash Flow ETF, yielding 1.44% [2] - The leading theme index ETF was the China Securities Index Rare Metals Theme ETF, with a return of 4.99% [2] ETF Performance Rankings - The top three ETFs by return on September 30 were: - Huafu China Securities Rare Metals Theme ETF (4.99%) [4] - GF China Securities Rare Metals Theme ETF (4.38%) [4] - ICBC Credit Suisse China Securities Rare Metals Theme ETF (4.35%) [4] - The three ETFs with the largest declines were: - Guotai Junan China Securities All Index Communication Equipment ETF (-2.05%) [5] - GF China Securities Communication Equipment Theme ETF (-1.82%) [5] - Harvest National Communication ETF (-1.73%) [5] ETF Fund Flows - The top three ETFs by fund inflow on September 30 were: - Southern China Securities A500 ETF (inflow of 1.052 billion yuan) [6] - GF China Securities A500 ETF (inflow of 1.043 billion yuan) [6] - GF National New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF (inflow of 977 million yuan) [6] - The three ETFs with the largest outflows were: - Yinhua China Securities Innovative Drug Industry ETF (outflow of 298 million yuan) [7] - Huabao China Securities Medical ETF (outflow of 246 million yuan) [7] - GF China Securities Military Industry Leader ETF (outflow of 214 million yuan) [7] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The top three ETFs by margin buying amount on September 30 were: - Huaxia SSE STAR 50 Component ETF (740 million yuan) [8] - Guotai Junan China Securities All Index Securities Company ETF (636 million yuan) [8] - E Fund ChiNext ETF (475 million yuan) [8] - The three ETFs with the highest margin selling amounts were: - Guolian An China Securities All Index Semiconductor Products and Equipment ETF (13.75 million yuan) [9] - Huatai Baichuan SSE 300 ETF (11.65 million yuan) [9] - Southern China Securities 500 ETF (6.99 million yuan) [9] Institutional Insights - According to Founder Securities, gold and copper reached new highs, with a favorable environment for continuous interest rate cuts in the U.S. [10] - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on investment opportunities in precious metals and copper, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of continued rate cuts [11]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities emphasizes the need for continued observation of interest rate cut expectations, suggesting that the market's current optimism may be overly aggressive and neglecting potential volatility risks [1][19]. Employment Data Analysis - The report focuses on employment as a key variable that could potentially reverse the interest rate cut expectations if upward revisions occur [2]. - Non-farm payroll data has been increasingly noisy this year due to factors like declining response rates and data collection issues, raising concerns about its accuracy [2][5]. - Historical data indicates that the initial value of non-farm payrolls for August is often revised upward in October, with an 80% probability of upward revision based on the last 20 years [7]. Seasonal Adjustment Mechanism - The seasonal adjustment mechanism used by the Labor Department can amplify short-term fluctuations in non-farm payroll data, particularly during the high volatility months of July and August [5][12]. - The downward adjustment of the overall trend in the CES model after the September annual benchmark revision may limit the downward revision space for the August non-farm payroll data [12]. Comparison with Other Labor Market Indicators - Other labor market indicators, such as ADP employment and PMI employment indices, suggest that the August non-farm payroll may have been underestimated, as these indicators did not show a significant decline [15][16]. Market Implications - The potential upward revision of August non-farm payrolls could significantly influence interest rate cut expectations, similar to the scenario before the Fed's first rate cut last year [19]. - The report warns that if any contrary signals arise, such as rapid inflation or revisions in non-farm data, market volatility could increase, affecting sensitive sectors like growth and cyclical stocks [1][19].