Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on November 27, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum rose over 6%, Shanghai silver rose over 3%, eggs and Shanghai tin rose over 2%, and palm oil rose nearly 2%. Palladium, soybean meal, glass, peanuts, and industrial silicon rose over 1%. On the downside, lithium carbonate fell nearly 2%, and asphalt and short - fiber fell over 1%. CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.11%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.11%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract fell 0.34%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract fell 0.08%. 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract fell 0.01%, 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.06%, and 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.01% [5][6] - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 27, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 3.12 billion yuan, Shanghai gold 2602 had an inflow of 2.146 billion yuan, and Shanghai tin 2601 had an inflow of 668 million yuan. On the other hand, rebar 2601 had an outflow of 578 million yuan, apple 2601 had an outflow of 528 million yuan, and coking coal 2601 had an outflow of 464 million yuan [6] 2. Commodity Analysis Copper - Copper opened high and moved low, showing a slightly stronger oscillation. US initial jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000 in the week ending November 22, lower than the expected 225,000. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is ongoing, with the rough smelting and refining fees remaining stable. Refined copper imports decreased month - on - month, but domestic copper supply is relatively abundant. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange copper has been accumulating, and there is no shortage of supply for now. The 770th document has not been implemented yet, and the operation of recycled copper rod enterprises is cautious. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, down over 10% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. Recently, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has declined after reaching a high, and the inventory pressure has eased but is still high year - on - year. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price has rebounded. If the positive factors do not materialize, the copper price may decline slightly [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, with a decline during the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 90,850 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the lithium carbonate output was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 26, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher year - on - year. The price of spodumene increased, and the supply of lithium from salt lakes is affected by the season. In October, the domestic output of energy - storage batteries was 54.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, up 21.1% and 20% year - on - year. After being stimulated by industry news, the futures price rose and then fell. The sustainability of downstream energy - storage orders is questionable, and the price has been fluctuating weakly in the past two days. It is recommended to operate with caution [10] Crude Oil - On November 2, eight OPEC+ countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November increase plans, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30. This will increase the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve the pressure in the first quarter of next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the increase in US refined oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the increase in US crude oil inventories also exceeded expectations due to increased net imports. The overall oil inventory has increased slightly. US crude oil production is near the historical high. However, the number of active US oil drilling platforms decreased by 12, increasing the expectation that low oil prices will limit US crude oil production growth. The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky said he will continue to negotiate the peace plan with the US. The risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined, but it is difficult to reach a peace agreement in the near term. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has intensified, raising concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. With the end of the consumption peak season, the decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and the unclear prospect of US interest rate cuts, the market is worried about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and the Middle East's exports are increasing. The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate at a low level [11][13] Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% last week, lower than the same period last year. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year. The operating rates of asphalt downstream industries showed mixed performance last week, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 34%, restricted by funds and weather. In the Northeast region, asphalt production increased, and sales volume increased significantly after price cuts. The national sales volume increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons, at a slightly low level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat, near the lowest level in recent years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. A fire in Venezuela's Jose industrial area shut down a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened under the US military threat. Shandong Shengxing and other refineries will stably produce asphalt this week, and the asphalt operating rate will increase. With the decline in northern temperatures, road construction is coming to an end, and the demand will further weaken. The increase in southern projects is limited, and the overall demand is dull. The basis of Shandong asphalt has remained at a neutral level, and the market is cautious. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [14] PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the main downstream woven products of PP remained flat at 44.24%, and the orders decreased slightly compared with the previous year. On November 27, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 83%, at a slightly low - to - neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn products remained at around 31%. The de - stocking of petrochemical enterprises slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - to - neutral level in the same period over the years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, the follow - up of orders such as woven products is limited, the price of BOPP film has declined, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales. With supply surplus and weakening cost support, it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly [15][16] Plastic - On November 27, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of plastic enterprises remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders, at a neutral level in the same period over the years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film has increased slightly again, and the orders of packaging film have increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The de - stocking of petrochemical enterprises slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - to - neutral level in the same period over the years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. The new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE and 700,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was recently put into operation. The operating rate of plastic has decreased slightly. The agricultural film is at the end of the peak season, with stable orders but the peak season is not as good as expected. With the temperature drop, the demand in the north has begun to decrease, and the price of agricultural film has started to decline. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Downstream enterprises have low purchasing willingness, mainly for rigid demand. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally offer discounts to sell actively. With the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern and weakening cost support, it is expected that plastic will continue to fluctuate weakly in the near term [17] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. Currently, the operating rate of PVC increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate of PVC continued to decline slightly, still at a low level although higher than the past two years. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, alleviating the concern about China's PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is also likely to be cancelled, and PVC exports increased last week through price cuts. However, the December quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China generally decreased by $30 - 60 per ton. The social inventory increased slightly last week and is still high, with great inventory pressure. From January to October 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion have further declined. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The real estate market needs time to improve. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the operating rate of PVC is higher than in previous years. The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of Tianjin Bohua is operating at full capacity, and 300,000 tons per year of Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons per year of Jiaxing Jiahua are operating at low capacity after trial operation. There are no actual policies in the PVC industry yet, and most old devices have been upgraded through technological transformation. The elimination of old devices and the solution of over - capacity problems in the petrochemical industry are macro - policies that will affect the future market. The maintenance of production enterprises such as Henan Lianchuang is about to end, the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, the cancellation of India's BIS policy has limited impact, the December quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China have decreased, and the decline in coking coal and other futures prices has dampened market sentiment. Recently, PVC has been fluctuating weakly [18][19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, showing a weak performance during the day. In the spot market, the mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 1,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1,000 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. According to Mysteel statistics, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 86.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93%. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and the daily customs clearance vehicle number at the Ganqimaodu Port may increase next week. However, there is still an expectation of production reduction and shutdown at the end of the year, and it is expected that the production will decrease month - on - month next month. The mine inventory has increased significantly. In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of steel mills and the molten iron output increased last week, with the daily molten iron output at 236,280 tons, a 0.25% month - on - month decrease, and the profit of steel mills continued to weaken. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline seasonally. The decline trend of coking coal has slowed down in the past two days. It is expected that the future fundamentals will show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market situation also needs to pay attention to the winter storage situation at coal ports, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [20] Urea - The futures price of urea opened high and moved high, showing an increase during the day. The market situation has improved slightly, with prices rising. After the low - price quotes rebounded, the order receiving is still good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea from urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,580 to 1,610 yuan/ton, a rebound of about 10 yuan/ton, with the high - end quotes in Hebei. Fundamentally, the daily output is significantly higher than the same period over the years. Before the seasonal shutdown of gas - based devices, the daily output of upstream factory devices will remain at a high level. The current daily output data is about 6% higher than last year. The compound fertilizer factories are still operating. After the production of winter - storage fertilizers, the production load is gradually increasing. Although the pre - order situation has been poor recently, the pending orders are still sufficient. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to increase next week. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories increased by 2.45 percentage points this period. Since the price increase recently, the downstream terminal purchasing speed has increased, and the purchasing enthusiasm has increased significantly. With the reserve demand, the inventory has been decreasing for several weeks, with a 5.1% week - on - week decline this week. Overall, both supply and demand are increasing. The urea price is fluctuating strongly at a low level, with both upward and downward price pressures. The futures price will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range. The current demand is mainly reserve - type demand, with limited sustainability. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream acceptance after the price increase [21][22]

Core Points - The unexpected retirement of General Halsey, commander of the U.S. Southern Command, raises concerns amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, particularly regarding military actions in the Caribbean [1][3] - Halsey's retirement comes less than a year after his appointment, which typically lasts three years, indicating potential instability within the military command structure [3][4] - The U.S. has intensified military deployments in the Caribbean, including warships, F-35 fighter jets, a nuclear submarine, and approximately 6,500 troops, in response to the situation with Venezuela [3][4] Military Actions - The U.S. military has conducted operations against alleged "drug boats" in the Caribbean, resulting in at least 27 deaths, raising legal and ethical concerns among experts and Democratic lawmakers [3][4] - Since September, the Trump administration has claimed to have sunk five alleged "drug boats" off the coast of Venezuela, with no substantial evidence provided to Congress to support these claims [4] Political Reactions - Concerns have been voiced by political leaders, such as Senator Jack Reed, regarding the implications of Halsey's retirement and the potential for military intervention in Venezuela without congressional authorization [4] - The Venezuelan government has accused the U.S. of violating international law and the United Nations Charter, suggesting that the U.S. actions are aimed at seizing Venezuela's oil resources [4]