1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market has mixed fundamentals with some positive and negative factors. The supply side is disturbed, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The copper price has hit a new record high due to geopolitical factors and is currently fluctuating at a high level, expected to move in a short - term oscillation. Attention should be paid to the Middle East events [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances and a decline in the manufacturing PMI in January indicate a slightly positive outlook. The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, showing a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 102,090 with a basis of - 1,760, indicating a discount to futures, which is a negative factor [3]. - **Inventory**: On March 2, copper inventory increased by 3,975 tons to 257,675 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 119,054 tons to 391,529 tons compared to the previous week, presenting a neutral situation [3]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but long positions are decreasing, which is a positive factor [3]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances remain, with the event at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine intensifying. The copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level, expected to move in a short - term oscillation. Attention should be paid to Middle East events [3]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global policy easing and tightness in the mining end. Specific factors include geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, potential Fed rate cuts, and slow production growth at mines along with the production cut event at the Freeport Indonesia mine [4][5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated US comprehensive tariffs and the fact that the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [5]. 3.3 Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 119,054 tons to 391,529 tons compared to the previous week [3]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. 3.4 Processing Fee - Processing fees have declined [16]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - The global copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance shows that in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, the apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, the actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a supply - demand balance of 0.11 million tons [22].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The copper market has a complex situation. The supply side is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in January decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The copper price has reached a new high due to geopolitical disturbances and the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia, and it is currently fluctuating at a high level and expected to run in a short - term shock [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting cut - backs, and relaxed scrap - copper policy. The January manufacturing PMI of 49.3% is 0.8 percentage points lower than last month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity; bullish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 102,125 with a basis of - 765, at a discount to futures; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: On February 25, copper inventory increased by 6,475 tons to 249,650 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 23,564 tons to 272,475 tons compared to last week; neutral [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward; bullish [2]. - **Main positions**: The main net position is long, and the long positions are increasing; bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances remain and the copper price has reached a new high. It is currently fluctuating at a high level and is expected to run in a short - term shock [2]. Recent利多利空 Analysis - **Likely to rise factors**: Global policy easing and tightness at the mine end, including geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, and slow mine - end production increase and the production cut event at the Freeport Indonesia mine [3][4]. - **Likely to fall factors**: Repeated US comprehensive tariffs and the global economic situation not being optimistic, with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [4]. Inventory - **Exchange inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 23,564 tons to 272,475 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded area inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance shows that in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, the apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, the actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [19][21].

Group 1: Report Core View - Copper's supply side is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policy being relaxed. In January, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a 0.8 percentage point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity; this is bullish [2]. - The basis is -15, with the spot price at 100365, showing a discount to the futures; this is neutral [2]. - On February 23, copper inventories increased by 6675 to 241825 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories increased by 23564 tons to 272475 tons compared to the previous week; this is neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward; this is bearish [2]. - The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing; this is bullish [2]. - Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the incident at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine has fermented. Copper prices have reached a new historical high and are currently fluctuating at a high level. During the holiday, the overseas market oscillated [2]. Group 2: Recent利多利空Analysis Bullish Factors - Global policy easing and tightness at the mine end [3] - Geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel [4] - Fed rate cuts [4] - Slow increase in mine production and the production cut event at Freeport's Indonesian mining area [4] Bearish Factors - Repeated full - scale US tariffs [4] - The global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [4] Group 3: Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13] - Processing fees have declined [15] - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [19] - China's copper supply - demand balance in 2018: production 8730000 tons, import 3720000 tons, export 280000 tons, apparent consumption 12170000 tons, actual consumption 12070000 tons, supply - demand balance 100000 tons; in 2019: production 8940000 tons, import 3480000 tons, export 350000 tons, apparent consumption 12070000 tons, actual consumption 12050000 tons; in 2020: production 9300000 tons, import 4520000 tons, export 210000 tons, apparent consumption 13610000 tons, actual consumption 12910000 tons, supply - demand balance 700000 tons; in 2021: production 9980000 tons, import 3440000 tons, export 270000 tons, apparent consumption 13150000 tons, actual consumption 13610000 tons, supply - demand balance - 4610000 tons; in 2022: production 10280000 tons, import 3670000 tons, export 230000 tons, apparent consumption 13720000 tons, actual consumption 13800000 tons, supply - demand balance - 80000 tons; in 2023: production 11440000 tons, import 3510000 tons, export 280000 tons, apparent consumption 14670000 tons, actual consumption 14770000 tons, supply - demand balance - 100000 tons; in 2024: production 12060000 tons, import 3730000 tons, export 460000 tons, apparent consumption 15340000 tons, actual consumption 15230000 tons, supply - demand balance 110000 tons [21]