交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 风险： 全球政策宽松 和 矿端紧张 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货102125，基差-765，贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：2月25日铜库存增6475至249650吨，上期所铜库存较上周增23564吨至272475吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货101840，基差330，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：2月24日铜库存增1350至243175吨，上期所铜库存较上周增23564吨至272475吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，目前高位 波动，短期震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿端增产缓慢,自由港印尼矿区减产事件 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货100365，基差-15，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：2月23日铜库存增6675至241825吨，上期所铜库存较上周增23564吨至272475吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper supply side is disrupted, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The overall situation is bullish. The spot price is 102160, and the basis is 170, showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral. On February 12, copper inventory increased by 4550 to 196650 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week, also neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, which is bearish. The main position is net long, but long positions are decreasing, which is bullish. Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control during the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disruptions, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy. January manufacturing PMI at 49.3%, down 0.8 ppts from last month, manufacturing prosperity declined; bullish [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price 102160, basis 170, premium over futures; neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On Feb 12, copper inventory up 4550 to 196650 tons, SHFE copper inventory up 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week; neutral [2]. - **Disk**: Closing price below 20 - day MA, 20 - day MA moving down; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: Main net long position with long positions decreasing; bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances, copper price at new high, high - level fluctuations. Control positions during holidays [2]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多Factors**: Global policy easing and tight mining supply, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran, Fed rate cuts, slow mining production increase, and production cuts in Freeport Indonesia's mining area [3][4]. - **利空Factors**: Unexpected US comprehensive tariffs, global economic pessimism, and high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [4]. 3.3 Inventory - related - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: Bonded area inventory rebounded from a low level [13]. 3.4 Processing Fee - Processing fee declined [15]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance situation. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a complex supply - demand and price situation. The supply side is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The copper price has reached a new high and is currently in high - level volatility, and attention should be paid to position control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting enterprise production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy, and a decline in the manufacturing PMI in January suggest a bullish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 100350, with a basis of - 250, indicating a discount to futures, which is neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On February 6th, copper inventory increased by 2700 tons to 183275 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week, which is neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving down, suggesting a bearish outlook [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the incident at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine is fermenting. The copper price has reached a new high and is currently in high - level volatility [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global policy easing and tight ore supply, along with geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran, potential Fed rate cuts, and slow mine - end production increase and production cuts at Freeport's Indonesian mine [3][4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and an unoptimistic global economy with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [4]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week [2]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - Processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations in different years from 2018 to 2024 [19][21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply side is disturbed, smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 percentage point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity; the overall situation is bullish [2] - The spot price is 101,445, with a basis of 465, showing a premium over futures; the situation is neutral [2] - On February 5, copper inventory increased by 1,925 to 180,575 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 7,067 tons to 233,004 tons compared to last week; the situation is neutral [2] - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward; the situation is bearish [2] - The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing; the situation is bullish [2] - Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the incident at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine is intensifying. Copper prices have reached a new high and are currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - The fundamentals, basis, inventory,盘面, main positions, and expectations of copper are analyzed, with a comprehensive consideration of bullish, neutral, and bearish factors [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors include global policy easing and tight mine supply, as well as geopolitical disturbances between Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, and slow mine production increase and the production cut event at Freeport's Indonesian mine [3][4] - Bearish factors include the unexpected increase in US comprehensive tariffs and the fact that the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [4] Spot and Inventory - Information on spot prices, inventory types, and inventory changes is provided, and the bonded area inventory is rising from a low level [6][13] 期现价差 - No specific content provided in the given text Exchange Inventory - No specific content provided in the given text Processing Fee - The processing fee is declining [15] CFTC - No specific content provided in the given text Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, there will be a tight balance. The China annual supply - demand balance table for copper from 2018 - 2024 is presented, showing production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data [19][21]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a mixed situation. The supply side has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being loosened. The January manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The copper price is at a high level with fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances, and investors should control their positions [2]. - The global policy is loose and the mine end is in a tight state, while the risk comes from natural disasters [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, and relaxed scrap - copper policy. The January manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, showing a decline in manufacturing prosperity; considered bullish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 104915, and the basis is - 245, at a discount to futures; considered neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On February 4, copper inventory increased by 2525 to 178650 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 7067 tons to 233004 tons compared to last week; considered neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising; considered bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing; considered bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has fermented. The copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances between Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, potential Fed rate cuts, slow mine - end production increase, and production cuts at Freeport's Indonesian mine [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and a pessimistic global economy where high copper prices may suppress downstream consumption [4]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 7067 tons to 233004 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee is declining [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance shows different situations from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, the production is 1206 tons, the import is 373 tons, the export is 46 tons, the apparent consumption is 1534 tons, the actual consumption is 1523 tons, and there is a surplus of 11 tons [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI rose 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, entering the expansion range, which is bullish. The spot price shows a discount to the futures, and the inventory has increased, which is neutral. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average rising, and the main positions are net long but with long positions decreasing, both being bullish. Geopolitical disturbances remain, and copper prices have reached a new high and are currently fluctuating at a high level, so attention should be paid to position control [3]. - The global policy is loose and the mining end is in short supply, while the risks include natural disasters [4]. Key Points by Directory Daily View - The supply side of copper has disturbances and smelting enterprises have production - reducing actions. The scrap copper policy is relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI is 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range, which is bullish [3]. - The spot price is 100870 with a basis of -470, showing a discount to the futures, which is neutral [3]. - On January 23, copper inventory increased by 3450 to 171700 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 12422 tons to 225937 tons compared with last week, which is neutral [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish [3]. - The main positions are net long, but long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [3]. - Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: Global policy is loose and the mining end is in short supply [4]. - Bearish factors: The US comprehensive tariff exceeds expectations, and the global economy is not optimistic. High copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [5]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [19]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, import is 3730000 tons, export is 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a surplus of 110000 tons [21]. Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. - The processing fee has declined [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of copper is disturbed, smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. The December manufacturing PMI rose 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, entering the expansion range, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - The spot price of copper is 104,240, with a basis of 120, showing a premium over futures, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - On January 14, copper inventories increased by 75 to 141,625 tons, and SHFE copper inventories increased by 35,201 tons to 180,543 tons last week, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a bullish trend [3]. - The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, showing a bullish trend [3]. - Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia has fermented. Copper prices have reached a new high and fluctuated significantly at high levels. Attention should be paid to position control [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Copper's fundamentals are bullish due to supply - side disturbances and improved PMI; the basis is neutral; inventory is neutral; the price trend on the chart is bullish; the main position is bullish; and there are risks of high - level fluctuations [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, slow mine - end production increase, and production cuts at Freeport's Indonesian mine [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and weak global economy suppressing downstream consumption [5]. - **Logic**: Global policy easing and tight mining supply [4]. - **Risk**: Natural disasters [4] Spot and Inventory - Shanghai copper spot and inventory data are presented, and the bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [7][14]. Price Difference between Futures and Spot - No detailed information available [8] Exchange Inventory - No detailed analysis available [12] Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16] CFTC - No detailed information available [18] Supply - demand Balance - In 2024, there is a small surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance situation. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [20][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range. The copper price hit a new high with significant high - level fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances and mine - end events, and attention should be paid to position control [3] - The global policy is loose and the mine end is in short supply, while natural disasters are potential risks [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and an increase in December manufacturing PMI to the expansion range are positive factors [3] - Basis: The spot price is 103,595 with a basis of 185, showing a premium over futures, which is neutral [3] - Inventory: On January 8, copper inventory decreased by 2,850 to 143,225 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 33,639 tons to 145,342 tons last week, which is neutral [3] - Disk: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is positive [3] - Main positions: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, which is positive [3] - Expectation: Geopolitical disturbances persist, and the copper price hit a new high with significant high - level fluctuations, so position control is necessary [3] Recent利多利空Analysis - Positive factors: Global policy easing, mine - end tightness, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, and slow mine - end production increase with a production cut event at a Freeport Indonesia mine [4][5] - Negative factors: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and the global economic situation not being optimistic, with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [5] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [20] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [22]