交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货102090，基差-1760，贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：3月2日铜库存增3975至257675吨，上期所铜库存较上周增119054吨至391529吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向上运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，目前高位 波动，短期震荡运行，关注中东事件 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 利多： 利空： 全球政策宽松 和 矿端紧张 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货102140，基差-1780，贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：2月27日铜库存增100至253700吨，上期所铜库存较上周增119054吨至391529吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，目前高位 波动，短期震荡运行， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿端增产缓慢,自由港印尼矿区减产事件 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货100365，基差-15，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：2月23日铜库存增6675至241825吨，上期所铜库存较上周增23564吨至272475吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a mixed situation. The supply side has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being loosened. The January manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The copper price is at a high level with fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances, and investors should control their positions [2]. - The global policy is loose and the mine end is in a tight state, while the risk comes from natural disasters [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, and relaxed scrap - copper policy. The January manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, showing a decline in manufacturing prosperity; considered bullish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 104915, and the basis is - 245, at a discount to futures; considered neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On February 4, copper inventory increased by 2525 to 178650 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 7067 tons to 233004 tons compared to last week; considered neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising; considered bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing; considered bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has fermented. The copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances between Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, potential Fed rate cuts, slow mine - end production increase, and production cuts at Freeport's Indonesian mine [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and a pessimistic global economy where high copper prices may suppress downstream consumption [4]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 7067 tons to 233004 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee is declining [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance shows different situations from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, the production is 1206 tons, the import is 373 tons, the export is 46 tons, the apparent consumption is 1534 tons, the actual consumption is 1523 tons, and there is a surplus of 11 tons [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The December manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range. The copper price hit a new high and fluctuated significantly at a high level, with geopolitical disturbances still existing [3]. - The global policy is loose and the mining end is in short supply, while the risks include natural disasters [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the short - term. Positive factors are geopolitical disturbances, Fed rate cuts, and slow mining production increase and mine reduction events; negative factors are the unexpected US comprehensive tariff and the suppression of downstream consumption by high copper prices [5]. - In terms of supply and demand balance, there will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - The supply side has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The December manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range, which is bullish [3]. Basis Analysis - The spot price is 100645, and the basis is - 705, indicating a discount to futures, which is bearish [3]. Inventory Analysis - On January 6, the copper inventory decreased by 2775 to 142550 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 33639 tons to 145342 tons compared with last week, showing a neutral situation [3]. - The bonded area inventory rebounded from a low level [14]. Market Trend Analysis - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward, which is bullish [3]. Main Position Analysis - The main net position is long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [3]. Supply - Demand Balance Analysis - The 2024 China copper supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus, and 2025 is expected to be in a tight balance. The 2024 China copper production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and the supply - demand balance is 110000 tons [20][22]. Other Factors Analysis - Positive factors include geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, slow mining production increase, and the production reduction event in Freeport's Indonesian mining area [5]. - Negative factors include the unexpected US comprehensive tariff and the suppression of downstream consumption by high copper prices due to the not - optimistic global economy [5]. - The processing fee has declined [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. The overall situation is neutral. - The spot price is 93,540, with a basis of -490, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish. - On December 23, copper inventories increased by 825 to 158,575 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventories increased by 6,416 tons from the previous week to 95,805 tons, which is neutral. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward, which is bullish. - The main net position is short, changing from long to short, which is bearish. - Geopolitical disturbances persist, and the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has fermented. Copper prices have reached a new historical high and are expected to remain at a high level in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy, and marginal improvement in PMI but still in contraction range [2] - **Basis**: Spot price at 93,540, basis - 490, discount to futures [2] - **Inventory**: December 23 copper inventory increase of 825 to 158,575 tons, SHFE copper inventory increase of 6,416 tons from last week to 95,805 tons [2] - **Disk**: Closing price above 20 - day moving average, 20 - day moving average moving upward [2] - **Main Position**: Main net position short, changing from long to short [2] - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances, new historical high in copper prices, short - term high - level operation [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned as logical factors, but specific classification of bullish and bearish factors is not clearly elaborated [3] Spot - Information about spot includes place, mid - price, change, and inventory details such as type, total amount, and change, but specific numerical values are not filled in the provided table [6] 期现价差 - No specific content is provided in the report regarding the analysis of the futures - spot price difference [7] Exchange Inventory - No specific content is provided in the report regarding exchange inventory analysis [11] Bonded Area Inventory - Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13] Processing Fee - Processing fee has declined [15] CFTC - No specific content is provided in the report regarding CFTC analysis [17] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state. A detailed Chinese annual supply - demand balance table for copper is provided, showing production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2024 [19][21]

Group 1: Report Core View - Copper supply is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policy being liberalized. The November China Manufacturing PMI is 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. The basis indicates a premium of futures over spot, copper inventory has risen, the price is at a high level, and the main net position is short with an increase in short positions [2]. - The copper market is expected to have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance shows different situations from 2018 - 2024 [19][21]. Group 2: Industry Analysis Details Fundamental Analysis - The supply side of copper has disturbances, and the manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement but is still in the contraction range, which is neutral [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price is 92480 with a basis of - 700, indicating a premium of futures over spot, which is bearish [2]. Inventory Analysis - On December 19, copper inventory decreased by 3875 to 160400 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 6416 tons to 95805 tons compared to last week, which is neutral. The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [2][13]. Disk Analysis - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. Main Position Analysis - The main net position is short, and the short position has increased, which is bearish [2]. Supply - Demand Balance Analysis - In 2024, there is a slight surplus in the copper market, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance data from 2018 - 2024 [19][21]. Other Analysis - The processing fee has declined, and the factors affecting the market include global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.4% in August. The basis is neutral, inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bullish. Copper prices opened higher and hit a recent high due to the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia overnight, while waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season in September [2]. - The logic of recent copper price analysis involves global policy easing and the escalation of trade wars [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral with smelting production cuts and improved manufacturing PMI [2]. - The basis shows a premium of 25 for spot copper over futures [2]. - On September 24, copper inventory decreased by 200 to 144,775 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to last week [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward - sloping, indicating a bullish trend [2]. - The main net position is long and increasing, also bullish [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. Daily Summary - The report provides a table on inventory data including spot, warehouse receipts, LME inventory, and SHFE inventory, but specific numerical summaries are not further elaborated in the text [5]. Exchange Inventory - Not elaborated further in the text Bonded Area Inventory - Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [12]. Processing Fee - Processing fees have declined [14]. CFTC - Not elaborated further in the text Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation is expected to be slightly in surplus in 2024 and in tight balance in 2025 [18]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [20].