每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，10月份中国制造业生产活动 较上月放缓，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)降至49.0%；中性。 2、基差：现货86610，基差870，升水期货； 偏多。 3、库存：11月4日铜库存增300至133900吨，上期所铜库存较上周增11348吨至116140吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向上运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价高位震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，10月份中国制造业生产活动 较上月放缓，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)降至49.0%；中性。 2、基差：现货86935，基差-365，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：11月3日铜库存减1025至133600吨，上期所铜库存较上周增11348吨至116140吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，空翻多；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价高位震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 每日汇 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，9月份，制造业生产活动加 快，PMI升至49.8%，景气水平继续改善；中性。 2、基差：现货87920，基差-40，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：10月30日铜库存减400至134950吨，上期所铜库存较上周减5448吨至104792吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价维持强势 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 数据来源：Wind 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，9月份，制造业生产活动加 快，PMI升至49.8%，景气水平继续改善；中性。 2、基差：现货85940，基差1530，升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：10月14日铜库存减550至138800吨，上期所铜库存较上周增14656吨至109690吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价维持强势 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，9月份，制造业生产活动加 快，PMI升至49.8%，景气水平继续改善；中性。 2、基差：现货85085，基差-35，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：10月13日铜库存减50至139350吨，上期所铜库存较上周增14656吨至109690吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价维持强势 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. In September, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, with the business climate continuing to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, such as the event at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and improved manufacturing PMI in September. Overall, it is considered neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 85750, with a basis of - 1000, indicating a discount to futures, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 9, copper inventory increased by 275 to 139475 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3745 tons to 95034 tons compared to last week. Overall, it is considered neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances persist, and the copper price is expected to remain strong [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned as logical factors, but no clear classification of bullish or bearish factors is given [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state [21]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of copper are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in August reached 49.4%, showing improved business levels compared to the previous month [2]. - The basis is neutral as the spot price is 82,510 with a basis of 40, indicating a premium over the futures [2]. - The inventory situation is neutral. On September 26, copper inventory decreased by 25 to 144,400 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 7,035 tons to 98,779 tons compared to the previous week [2]. - The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is trending upwards, and the net position of the main players is long, although the long positions are decreasing [2]. - The expectation is that with inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining, the market is waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season of September. The incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has led to copper prices opening and closing higher, reaching a recent high [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises reducing production, scrap - copper policy relaxation, and the August manufacturing PMI at 49.4% show improved business levels; overall neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price 82,510, basis 40, premium over futures; neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 26, copper inventory decreased by 25 to 144,400 tons, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 7,035 tons to 98,779 tons compared to last week; neutral [2]. - **Trend**: Closing price above the 20 - day moving average which is trending upwards; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: Net long position of the main players, long positions decreasing; bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Inventory rising, geopolitical disturbances, waiting for September peak - season consumption guidance, and the mine incident in Indonesia leading to higher copper prices [2]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. 3.3 Spot - No specific summarized data provided, only the format of location, mid - price, price change, inventory type, total inventory, and inventory change is given [6]. 3.4 Exchange Inventory - The LME inventory (daily) and SHFE inventory (weekly) are mentioned, but no specific summarized data is provided [6][12]. 3.5 Bonded - Area Inventory - Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. 3.6 Processing Fee - Processing fees are declining [16]. 3.7 CFTC - No specific summarized content provided [18]. 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation is expected to be slightly in surplus in 2024 and in a tight balance in 2025 [20]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.4% in August. The basis is neutral, inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bullish. Copper prices opened higher and hit a recent high due to the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia overnight, while waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season in September [2]. - The logic of recent copper price analysis involves global policy easing and the escalation of trade wars [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral with smelting production cuts and improved manufacturing PMI [2]. - The basis shows a premium of 25 for spot copper over futures [2]. - On September 24, copper inventory decreased by 200 to 144,775 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to last week [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward - sloping, indicating a bullish trend [2]. - The main net position is long and increasing, also bullish [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. Daily Summary - The report provides a table on inventory data including spot, warehouse receipts, LME inventory, and SHFE inventory, but specific numerical summaries are not further elaborated in the text [5]. Exchange Inventory - Not elaborated further in the text Bonded Area Inventory - Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [12]. Processing Fee - Processing fees have declined [14]. CFTC - Not elaborated further in the text Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation is expected to be slightly in surplus in 2024 and in tight balance in 2025 [18]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of copper are neutral, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, showing improved business conditions compared to the previous month. The basis is also neutral, with the spot price at 79,970 and a basis of 120, indicating a premium over the futures price. The inventory situation is neutral, with copper inventories decreasing by 1,225 tons to 147,650 tons on September 19th, and the SHFE copper inventory increasing by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week. The market trend is bullish, with the closing price above the 20 - day moving average, which is upward - sloping. The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing. Overall, with inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances still present, waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season in September, the current contradiction between long and short is not prominent, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises reduce production, scrap copper policy is relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in August rose to 49.4%, with business conditions improving compared to the previous month; neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 79,970, basis is 120, with a premium over the futures price; neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 19th, copper inventories decreased by 1,225 tons to 147,650 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week; neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward - sloping; bullish [2]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing; bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: With inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances still present, waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season in September, the current contradiction between long and short is not prominent, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Leverage Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows specific data for different years from 2018 - 2024, including production, import volume, export volume, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [19][21].