Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with expectations of an additional 50 basis points reduction by the end of the year, which aligns with market predictions [2] - Following the rate cut, the gold market may face "sell the fact" pressure, indicating a potential short-term price correction [2] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term investment value in gold remains intact due to ongoing economic adjustments and geopolitical risks driving demand for gold [2] Group 2 - The Chinese bond market is exhibiting independent trends, with a collective decline in government bond futures and rising yields, particularly in the 10-year bond which surpassed 1.78% [2] - Major banks have been net buyers of various maturities of government bonds, while smaller banks have shown a tendency to sell [3] - Insurance companies have reduced their net purchases of long-term bonds, indicating a shift in investment strategy [4] Group 3 - The company bond ETF has seen a recent trading volume of 21.82 billion yuan, with a near-term price of 106.12 yuan [5] - The company bond ETF has experienced a 1.11% increase over the past six months, with a net asset value growth of 13.45% over the last five years [6] - The ETF's management fee is set at 0.15%, and the tracking error over the past month is minimal at 0.013% [8][9]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has led to a significant decrease in the U.S. corporate bond spread, reaching its lowest level in 27 years [1] Group 1 - The corporate bond spread in the U.S. has fallen to its lowest point in nearly three decades following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates [1]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：殷雯卿（19945767933） 核心观点 近期关于美债今年是否会是到期最高峰、 6 月前后是否会出现天量到期潮的问题被市场高度关注。对 这一问题我们详细解释了国债到期额的合理统计方法，并对其进行统计。可以看到： 2025 年美国国 债并未如市场所传的那样出现天量到期墙问题，但目前美国国债、特别是短期国债的到期滚续压力确 实很大，远高于 2023 年以前的水平，高额的国债到期规模可能会加大国债市场的供需压力，美债收 益率难下。 报告摘要 1 、 2025 年是天量到期潮吗？与 2024 年大致持平 以上文所述统计方法，滚动以每年 1 月 1 日为数据观察日，统计美国国债每年到期额。 则 2025 年 美国国债到期规模 10.8 万亿美元，与 2024 年到期额 10.6 万亿美元接近，但远高于 2023 年以前 水平。因此， 2025 年其实并没有出现国债到期额相较 2024 年的巨幅提升，但美国国债的债务到期 问题确实愈发严重。 2 、 2025 年 5-6 月将是年内债务到期高峰？ 为何会出现 2025 ...