Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is experiencing a cautious bearish sentiment due to recent U.S. economic data, which has mitigated risk aversion despite ongoing geopolitical tensions [2][6] - Recent ETF gold holdings have shown a slight outflow, indicating a short-term recovery in market risk appetite, which is suppressing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - The focus for gold prices next week will be on U.S.-EU and U.S.-China trade negotiations, with potential optimism possibly pushing prices down to the $3300 per ounce level [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - On a weekly chart, gold prices are in a high-level consolidation phase, with a critical resistance level at $3325; prices above this level indicate a bullish trend [3] - Daily analysis shows that gold is currently testing support levels, with a risk of breaking below these levels, which could lead to a test of weekly support areas [3] - Short-term trading strategy suggests a focus on selling during rebounds and buying on dips, with key resistance at $3355-$3365 and support at $3320-$3310 [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is facing a weak downward trend, with U.S. crude oil trading around $65.04 per barrel, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.3% [6] - Recent price movements were influenced by unexpected declines in U.S. crude oil inventories and geopolitical tensions, particularly in Gaza, which have affected market sentiment [6] - Brent crude futures saw a slight increase, closing at $69.18 per barrel, driven by various factors including potential restrictions on Russian gasoline exports [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term outlook for oil remains bullish, with prices testing the $78 level, although recent MACD indicators suggest a weakening of bullish momentum [7] - Short-term trends indicate volatility, with frequent shifts between buying and selling pressure; the strategy recommends focusing on selling during price rebounds and buying on pullbacks [7] - Key resistance levels for oil are identified at $67.0-$68.0, while support levels are noted at $63.0-$62.0 [7]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：殷雯卿（19945767933） 核心观点 近期关于美债今年是否会是到期最高峰、 6 月前后是否会出现天量到期潮的问题被市场高度关注。对 这一问题我们详细解释了国债到期额的合理统计方法，并对其进行统计。可以看到： 2025 年美国国 债并未如市场所传的那样出现天量到期墙问题，但目前美国国债、特别是短期国债的到期滚续压力确 实很大，远高于 2023 年以前的水平，高额的国债到期规模可能会加大国债市场的供需压力，美债收 益率难下。 报告摘要 1 、 2025 年是天量到期潮吗？与 2024 年大致持平 以上文所述统计方法，滚动以每年 1 月 1 日为数据观察日，统计美国国债每年到期额。 则 2025 年 美国国债到期规模 10.8 万亿美元，与 2024 年到期额 10.6 万亿美元接近，但远高于 2023 年以前 水平。因此， 2025 年其实并没有出现国债到期额相较 2024 年的巨幅提升，但美国国债的债务到期 问题确实愈发严重。 2 、 2025 年 5-6 月将是年内债务到期高峰？ 为何会出现 2025 ...