（注：具体的调整幅度以国家发展改革委公布的为准） 来源丨中国商报微信综合自北京青年报、中国新闻网、潮新闻 责编丨胡美静 白雅琦 付颢琬 校对丨张斌 审核丨杨宏生 6月17日24时，成品油调价窗口将再度开启。据多家机构测算，按照国内成品油调价机制， 届时国内汽 柴油上调幅度约为300元/吨，迎来年内第5次上调。 隆众资讯成品油分析师刘炳娟预计，调价窗口开启时，对应成品油上调幅度约280—320元/吨，本轮油 价上调已成定局。 若本次价格上调，以70升的油箱来计算，私家车主加满一箱油将多花16元左右。 从供应端来看，虽然OPEC+增产操作仍在进行中，但是伊以冲突导致潜在供应风险增强，成为市场当 前最主要的关注点。 地缘因素带来供应趋紧预期，令短期内供应端仍是偏紧张的主基调。 摩根大通分析师也警告称，中东局势恶化可能会引发该地区主要产油国的报复性反应，这些国家石油产 量在全球占比为1/3， "在这种严峻形势下，预计油价可能会飙升至每桶120美元至130美元的区间。" 从需求端来看，目前美国夏季出行高峰来临，传统旺季提振燃油需求，需求季节性增强。此外，美国关 税新政带来的压力减弱，各大机构削减对经济衰退的预测，需求方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of monetary policy relies on public understanding of the Federal Reserve's goals and actions, particularly in the context of current economic conditions and future monetary policy outlook [1]. Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to achieve full employment and price stability, with recent data indicating a solid economic growth momentum despite rising uncertainties from trade policies [2]. - Economic growth in the U.S. is expected to slow down significantly this year, with preliminary GDP data for Q1 2025 to be released soon, reflecting potential economic deceleration [2]. - Surveys of households and businesses suggest a changing economic landscape, with a less optimistic growth outlook due to new government policies, particularly in trade [2]. Labor Market and Inflation Analysis - The labor market is currently balanced, with a stable unemployment rate of 4.2% as of March, and an average of 150,000 new jobs added monthly in Q1 [3]. - Inflation has significantly decreased from its peak post-COVID-19, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.5% over the past 12 months, and core PCE rising by 2.8% [3]. - The Federal Reserve's pace towards the 2% inflation target has slowed due to ongoing price level declines without a corresponding rise in unemployment [3]. Impact of Tariff Policies - The effects of new tariff policies are expected to gradually manifest in the economy, potentially increasing short-term inflation expectations, although long-term inflation expectations remain stable [4]. - The dual risks of rising unemployment and inflation are increasing due to significant policy changes in trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff adjustments may lead to inflationary pressures and slower economic growth, with the extent and duration of these impacts still uncertain [6]. Conclusion on Economic Stability - High inflation and unemployment pose significant risks to households and businesses, emphasizing the importance of achieving full employment and price stability [7]. - The Federal Reserve is committed to navigating the complexities of current economic conditions to fulfill its dual mandate effectively [7].