（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月24日电（薛尚文）新华社石油价格系统11月24日发布的数据显示，11月21日一揽子原 油平均价格变化率为-1.45%。 根据《石油价格管理办法》规定，国内汽、柴油价格根据国际市场原油价格变化每10个工作日调整一 次，调价生效时间为调价发布日24时。当调价幅度低于每吨50元时，不作调整，纳入下次调价时累加或 冲抵。出现办法规定的特殊情形时，可以暂停、延迟调价，或缩小调价幅度。 11月24日是本计价周期的第十个工作日，调价窗口将在今日24时开启。本轮国内汽、柴油价格或小幅下 调，预计下调幅度约70元／吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent geopolitical conflicts and a strong refined oil market have contributed to a rebound in international oil prices, although concerns about oversupply have led to a sharp decline in prices [1] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - International oil prices rebounded due to multiple factors, including new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and India's cessation of Russian oil purchases, raising supply concerns [1] - The recent sanctions on Russian oil companies, including Lukoil, have directly restricted Russian oil exports, with India previously importing approximately 1.7 million barrels per day from Russia [1] - The unexpected operational challenges faced by Lukoil in Iraq, with a production capacity of around 400,000 barrels per day, have further supported oil prices in the short term [1] Group 2: Refined Oil Market Influence - The strong performance of the refined oil market, particularly in Europe and the U.S., has provided significant support for crude oil prices, with recent price movements closely mirroring those of refined products [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - Despite the recent price increases, the fundamental conditions in the crude oil market have not fundamentally improved, with rising inventory pressures and a seasonal decline in demand expected [3] - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by approximately 1.2 million barrels as of the week ending November 7, indicating weakening demand [3] - OPEC+ plans to continue increasing production in December, which will exert additional pressure on oil prices [3] Group 4: Future Projections - Significant inventory pressures are anticipated from late 2025 to early 2026, with oil prices expected to have room for decline during this period [4] - OPEC+ is projected to reach a production plateau of nearly 3 million barrels per day by December 2025, while seasonal demand lows are expected in February to March 2026 [4] - Long-term supply pressures remain, with a downward trend in oil prices expected, although short-term fluctuations may occur due to geopolitical factors and market dynamics [4]

深夜，金银钯铂大涨，原油大跌！ 截至发稿，伦敦金价上涨1.67%，至4195.46美元/盎司；伦敦银价上涨3.99%，至53.23美元/盎司；国际 钯价上涨2.22%，至1505.85美元/盎司；国际铂价上涨2.29%，至1634.93美元/盎司。 消息面上，美国史上最长的政府"停摆"即将结束。美国众议院多数党领袖斯卡利斯表示，美国众议院将 于美国东部时间周三晚上7点左右(北京时间周四上午8点)对结束政府"停摆"的法案进行投票。 消息面上，美国《华尔街日报》表示，原油期货结束了此前连续三个交易日的上涨势头，市场对供应过 剩的担忧再次成为交易员关注的焦点。 谈及近日油价反弹，山金期货高级能化分析师朱美侠表示，美国对俄罗斯石油实施最新制裁，印度正在 停止购买俄罗斯石油，叠加乌克兰对俄罗斯石油基础设施的打击，引发市场对原油供应的担忧。此外， 其他原油市场窗口买盘量价有所提升，以及美国政府"停摆"将在本周结束的消息，为油价上涨带来了额 外支撑。 中辉期货能化分析师郭艳鹏介绍，10月末，欧美对俄罗斯实施新制裁，涉及俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油 公司，这对俄油出口形成了直接制约。数据显示，近两年印度从俄罗斯进口原油约170万 ...

Core Insights - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index reached 99.79 in October 2025, an increase of 0.84 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a continued recovery trend [3][10] - The upstream oil and gas extraction sector is negatively impacted by weak crude oil prices, while the midstream and downstream sectors benefit from declining costs and improving demand [3][10] - The release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" provides strategic direction for the long-term development of the petrochemical industry [3][5] - The easing of China-U.S. trade tensions is expected to stabilize the export environment for petrochemical products [3][6] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is anticipated to stimulate global demand [3][15] Industry Overview - The oil and gas extraction sector's prosperity index fell to 96.95, down 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a "price drop, profit shrink" situation due to ongoing weak crude oil prices [10][11] - The fuel processing industry saw its index rise to 105.15, up 1.25 percentage points, supported by low raw material costs and seasonal demand [11] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing index increased to 101.21, up 1.82 percentage points, indicating improved production heat and inventory turnover [11] - The rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing index rose to 95.34, up 2.13 percentage points, benefiting from lower raw material costs and policy support [11] Future Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to accelerate the high-quality and green development of the petrochemical industry over the next five years [13] - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations are expected to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese petrochemical products in the U.S. market [14] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is likely to boost investment and consumption, benefiting exports of petrochemical products [15] - The oil and chemical industry may face a decline in the prosperity index in November due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but the impact is expected to be limited by cost advantages and production inertia [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that a new round of fuel price adjustments will take place on November 10 at 24:00, marking the first adjustment for November [2] - Current expectations suggest an increase in fuel prices by approximately 130 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.10 to 0.12 yuan per liter [2] - Following a period of price declines, the oil prices are set to rise again in November [2] Group 2 - The article advises vehicle owners to refuel in the next couple of days before the price increase takes effect [5]

Group 1 - The new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open on November 10 at 24:00, marking the first price adjustment for gasoline and diesel in November [2] - Current estimates indicate an increase of 130 yuan per ton, translating to a rise of approximately 0.10 to 0.12 yuan per liter, despite recent reductions in price increases [2] - Following a period of decline, oil prices are expected to rise again in November [2] Group 2 - Car owners are encouraged to refuel in the next couple of days before the price adjustment takes effect [5]

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to falling crude oil and product prices, leading to reduced inventory profits and lower sales volumes of gasoline and diesel [1] Financial Performance - The operating revenue for the first three quarters was 2,113.441 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 29.984 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.2% [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 0.247 yuan [1] Contributing Factors - The decrease in net profit was mainly attributed to the continuous decline in crude oil and product prices, which negatively impacted inventory profits [1] - Domestic sales volumes of gasoline and diesel experienced a downturn [1] - The gross profit margins for aviation fuel, aromatics, and other products also saw a decline [1]

Core Viewpoint - The average price change rate of a basket of crude oil was reported at -5.44% on October 24, indicating a significant decline in oil prices [1]. Group 1: Oil Price Adjustment Mechanism - According to the "Oil Price Management Measures," domestic gasoline and diesel prices are adjusted based on international crude oil price changes every 10 working days, with the adjustment taking effect at 24:00 on the announcement date [3]. - If the adjustment amount is less than 50 yuan per ton, it will not be implemented but will be accumulated or offset in the next adjustment [3]. - The adjustment window for this pricing cycle will open at 24:00 on October 27, with an expected decrease of approximately 265 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices [3].

Core Insights - The price of 92 gasoline is expected to drop back to the 6 yuan level, marking a four-year low [1] - The 21st round of oil price adjustment will officially open at 24:00 on October 27 [2] Price Adjustment Summary - As of October 26, the current reference crude oil price change rate is -7.20%, indicating a potential decrease in gasoline and diesel prices by 290 yuan per ton, which translates to a drop of approximately 0.22-0.25 yuan per liter [3] - Due to the recent upward trend in international oil prices, the predicted price drop may narrow to 270-280 yuan per ton, but the decrease per liter will still exceed 0.2 yuan [3] - The oil price adjustment window is set for October 27 at 24:00 [2]

Group 1 - The average price change rate of a basket of crude oil was reported at -6.04% on October 23 [1] - According to the Oil Price Management Measures, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are adjusted based on international crude oil price changes every 10 working days, with the next adjustment window opening on October 27 at 24:00 [3] - A decrease in domestic gasoline and diesel prices is expected, with an estimated reduction of around 290 yuan per ton [3]