当地时间12日晚，美国总统特朗普签署一项联邦政府临时拨款法案，结束已持续43天的美国史上最 长联邦政府"停摆"。大约两小时前，美国国会众议院以222票支持、209票反对的结果正式通过这项法 案。该法案已于10日在参议院获得通过。 据美国媒体报道，该法案将按现有水平为大部分联邦机构提供资金至2026年1月30日。许多经济学 家估计，约六周的政府"停摆"可能使美国国内生产总值下降逾0.1个百分点。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown, lasting 43 days, has officially ended with President Trump's signing of a temporary funding bill [1] - The House of Representatives passed the bill with a vote of 222 in favor and 209 against, following its approval in the Senate on January 10 [1] - The bill will fund most federal agencies at current levels until January 30, 2026, with economists estimating a GDP decline of over 0.1 percentage points due to the shutdown [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, stated that the U.S. economy is not overheating when viewed through the lens of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [1] Group 1 - The U.S. economy's performance, as indicated by GDP, suggests stability rather than overheating [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming FOMC meeting is crucial following the employment report released last Friday, which showed non-farm payrolls at 177,000 for April, down from a revised 185,000 in March, with a downward adjustment of 58,000 jobs [2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month, lower than the 0.3% increase in March [2] - Job vacancies in the U.S. fell significantly in March to the lowest level in six months, and ADP private sector employment data was disappointing, alongside a notable rise in weekly unemployment claims [2] Group 2 - The ISM manufacturing survey indicated continued contraction in factory activity for April, and first-quarter GDP showed a decline of 0.3% [2] - The healthy growth in non-farm payrolls and stable unemployment rate has led the Federal Reserve to believe there is no immediate need to lower interest rates [2] - Following three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points last year, the Fed has maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.5% [2] Group 3 - The better-than-expected employment report has shifted traders' expectations for the first Fed rate cut in 2025 from June to July, with the probability of a rate cut on June 18 now at 31.8%, down from 50.4% prior to the report [3] - The likelihood of a first rate cut in July has increased from 47% to 57% following the report [3] - Traders anticipate a 25 basis point cut in either of the two months, lowering the federal funds rate to between 4% and 4.25% [3]