Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on interest rate policy, with Stephen Milan advocating for aggressive rate cuts, suggesting a 50 basis point reduction if future data aligns with expectations, while Lisa Cook maintained a cautious stance, supporting recent cuts but remaining undecided on December's actions [1] Group 2 - The latest economic data revealed that the U.S. manufacturing activity index for October was 48.7, below the market expectation of 49.5 and down from the previous value of 49.1, indicating that manufacturing has been in contraction for eight consecutive months due to output slowdown and weak market demand [3] - The report indicated that 12 manufacturing sectors experienced contraction, particularly in traditional industries like textiles, apparel, and furniture, while six sectors, including non-ferrous metals and transportation equipment, showed growth [3] - The prices paid index for raw materials dropped to 58, the lowest level since the beginning of the year, significantly below the market expectation of 62.5 and the previous value of 61.9, suggesting ongoing relief from upstream price pressures [3][4] - The decline in the prices paid index reflects a nearly 12-point drop since the peak earlier this year, indicating that the most severe phase of manufacturing cost pressures driven by policy factors may have ended [4] - Due to the government shutdown affecting the release of key official statistics, economic experts and policymakers are increasingly relying on non-official data, such as manufacturing surveys, to assess the overall economy and labor market conditions [4]

Lee还将今年划分为三个阶段。第一个阶段中，市场因为担心关税而出现问题，随后4月出现V型反弹， 在经历了急剧下跌和快速反弹后，投资者在最后一个阶段看到更加清晰和宽松的美联储政策，美国经济 势头也更加强劲。 不过，他也表示，标普指数在基准情况下的目标点位为6600点，而如果关税导致美国通胀压力加剧，或 者ISM指出持续疲软，那么6600点可能也无法实现。 今年，由于人工智能的领导地位遭遇了"估值疲劳"，且降息的希望与关税驱动的通胀风险紧密交织，标 普500指数今年小幅上涨8.7%，陷入拉锯之中。 而在周五美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话前，标普500指数已经连续五天下跌，反映出市场目前的复杂心 理。 B. Riley Wealth首席市场策略师Art Hogan指出，标普500指数中大部分成分股的股价仍低于其50天移动 平均线，500家公司中有493家股价今年涨幅不及标普指数，这可能反映了投资者对经济的看法。而头部 的几家大公司很大程度上只是体现了市场对人工智能的热情。 由于美国关税及美联储降息政策的不确定性，华尔街对美股今年的走势颇为分化，但一位知名分析师认 为，标普500指数仍有可能在年底突破7000点，即较周四收 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming FOMC meeting is crucial following the employment report released last Friday, which showed non-farm payrolls at 177,000 for April, down from a revised 185,000 in March, with a downward adjustment of 58,000 jobs [2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month, lower than the 0.3% increase in March [2] - Job vacancies in the U.S. fell significantly in March to the lowest level in six months, and ADP private sector employment data was disappointing, alongside a notable rise in weekly unemployment claims [2] Group 2 - The ISM manufacturing survey indicated continued contraction in factory activity for April, and first-quarter GDP showed a decline of 0.3% [2] - The healthy growth in non-farm payrolls and stable unemployment rate has led the Federal Reserve to believe there is no immediate need to lower interest rates [2] - Following three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points last year, the Fed has maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.5% [2] Group 3 - The better-than-expected employment report has shifted traders' expectations for the first Fed rate cut in 2025 from June to July, with the probability of a rate cut on June 18 now at 31.8%, down from 50.4% prior to the report [3] - The likelihood of a first rate cut in July has increased from 47% to 57% following the report [3] - Traders anticipate a 25 basis point cut in either of the two months, lowering the federal funds rate to between 4% and 4.25% [3]