Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on interest rate policy, with Stephen Milan advocating for aggressive rate cuts, suggesting a 50 basis point reduction if future data aligns with expectations, while Lisa Cook maintained a cautious stance, supporting recent cuts but remaining undecided on December's actions [1] Group 2 - The latest economic data revealed that the U.S. manufacturing activity index for October was 48.7, below the market expectation of 49.5 and down from the previous value of 49.1, indicating that manufacturing has been in contraction for eight consecutive months due to output slowdown and weak market demand [3] - The report indicated that 12 manufacturing sectors experienced contraction, particularly in traditional industries like textiles, apparel, and furniture, while six sectors, including non-ferrous metals and transportation equipment, showed growth [3] - The prices paid index for raw materials dropped to 58, the lowest level since the beginning of the year, significantly below the market expectation of 62.5 and the previous value of 61.9, suggesting ongoing relief from upstream price pressures [3][4] - The decline in the prices paid index reflects a nearly 12-point drop since the peak earlier this year, indicating that the most severe phase of manufacturing cost pressures driven by policy factors may have ended [4] - Due to the government shutdown affecting the release of key official statistics, economic experts and policymakers are increasingly relying on non-official data, such as manufacturing surveys, to assess the overall economy and labor market conditions [4]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is divided on the outlook for U.S. stocks this year due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and Federal Reserve interest rate policies, but a notable analyst believes the S&P 500 index could potentially break 7000 points by year-end, representing a nearly 10% increase from Thursday's closing price [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The continued rise of U.S. stocks will depend on two key signals: the Federal Reserve beginning to cut interest rates and a rapid recovery in U.S. manufacturing activity [1] - The ISM manufacturing index is used to gauge U.S. manufacturing activity, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction; the index has been below 50 for 28 consecutive months, highlighting the weakness in U.S. manufacturing [1] - Lowering interest rates will reduce real yields, making stock valuations more attractive, while improvements in ISM data will support economic expansion, both of which are crucial indicators for the continued rise of U.S. stocks [1] Group 2: Market Phases - The year has been divided into three phases: initial concerns over tariffs, a V-shaped rebound in April, and a final phase where clearer and more accommodative Federal Reserve policies and stronger economic momentum are observed [2] - The baseline target for the S&P 500 index is set at 6600 points, but if tariffs lead to increased inflationary pressures or if ISM data continues to show weakness, even this target may not be achievable [2] - The S&P 500 index has seen a modest increase of 8.7% this year, caught in a tug-of-war between hopes for interest rate cuts and inflation risks driven by tariffs [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Prior to a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the S&P 500 index had declined for five consecutive days, reflecting the current complex market psychology [2] - Most component stocks of the S&P 500 are trading below their 50-day moving average, with 493 out of 500 companies underperforming the index this year, indicating investor skepticism about the economy [2] - The enthusiasm for artificial intelligence is primarily reflected in a few leading companies, which may not represent the broader market sentiment [2]

Group 1 - The upcoming FOMC meeting is crucial following the employment report released last Friday, which showed non-farm payrolls at 177,000 for April, down from a revised 185,000 in March, with a downward adjustment of 58,000 jobs [2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month, lower than the 0.3% increase in March [2] - Job vacancies in the U.S. fell significantly in March to the lowest level in six months, and ADP private sector employment data was disappointing, alongside a notable rise in weekly unemployment claims [2] Group 2 - The ISM manufacturing survey indicated continued contraction in factory activity for April, and first-quarter GDP showed a decline of 0.3% [2] - The healthy growth in non-farm payrolls and stable unemployment rate has led the Federal Reserve to believe there is no immediate need to lower interest rates [2] - Following three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points last year, the Fed has maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.5% [2] Group 3 - The better-than-expected employment report has shifted traders' expectations for the first Fed rate cut in 2025 from June to July, with the probability of a rate cut on June 18 now at 31.8%, down from 50.4% prior to the report [3] - The likelihood of a first rate cut in July has increased from 47% to 57% following the report [3] - Traders anticipate a 25 basis point cut in either of the two months, lowering the federal funds rate to between 4% and 4.25% [3]