美国国债收益率和美元大幅波动，因12月份新增就业人数低于预期，但失业率下降，而这种情况可能使 美联储在一段时间内按兵不动。12月就业人数增加50,000人，低于《华尔街日报》(WSJ)调查的73,000 人的平均预期。11月份的数据从64,000人下修至56,000人。失业率从向下修正后的4.5%降至4.4%，略低 于预期。这是1月28日美联储做出利率决定前的最后一份就业报告。消息公布后，收益率和美元跳涨， 但此后有所回落。10年期美国国债收益率为4.173%，两年期美国国债收益率为3.509%。华尔街日报美 元指数上涨0.1%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

格隆汇1月7日｜美元走势保持稳健，尽管美国私营部门就业数据略逊于预期。根据周三公布的ADP数 据，12月私营部门雇主增加了41,000个工作岗位。《华尔街日报》调查的经济学家此前预期就业人数将 增加48,000人。然而，上月数据被上修为显示雇主裁减了29,000个工作岗位，而最初报告的就业人数下 降了32,000人。美元指数在数据公布后基本无变动，稳定在98.601。这些数据是在周五关键的美国非农 就业报告公布前发布的，该报告可能会影响市场对美联储下次降息时机的预期。 ...

12月17日，周二（12月16日），现货黄金价格在高位震荡，盘中一度跌至4272美元附近，却又迅速反弹 至4335美元，最终收报4302美元，基本持平。这种波动并非偶然，而是受到了美国就业数据、地缘政治 紧张局势以及美联储政策预期的多重影响。数据显示，美国11月就业岗位增长反弹，但失业率意外升至 4.6%的四年高位，这不仅强化了市场对美联储进一步降息的预期，还推动美元指数触及两个月低点， 令黄金对海外买家更具吸引力。同时，俄乌冲突的最新进展为黄金提供了潜在的避险支撑。投资者们正 密切关注即将公布的CPI和PCE数据，以及美联储官员的讲话，这些因素将共同塑造黄金的短期走势。 黄金技术分析： 黄金维持看涨不变的前提下，继续看这个周期的调整力度和上涨空间，目前的高点是4350，4350破位就 看4385，但周期的调整空间也不得不看，周一强调4350之下不要过分看涨，随时可能出现调整空间，实 际最低跌至4270，而在周二非农出局后上涨至4335附近后，午夜也回落到4290，结合这两波行情可以看 到，黄金在多头趋势中既要看上涨的趋势力度，也要看有效的调整空间，周三维持这个原则做有效的交 易。 从技术面来看，日线周期表现 ...

昨日12月16日（星期二），黄金早盘上涨至4318附近受阻下跌，到欧盘前最低跌至4271附近，欧盘低位震荡。美盘前开始企稳上涨，美盘初延续上涨，最高 触及4335附近，随后受阻下跌，凌晨下探4291附近后反弹4300上方震荡，日线收出一根十字阴线。 一、基本面 1、美国11月就业数据"撕裂" 积极面：非农就业岗位增加6.4万个，显著高于市场预期的5万个，扭转10月减少10.5万个岗位的颓势（10月减少因43天政府停摆导致联邦政府职位锐减16.2 万个）；私人部门就业平均每月增加7.5万个，被视为劳动力市场健康的积极信号。 局势动态：俄罗斯控制哈尔科夫地区诺沃普拉托诺夫卡定居点，对乌军设施实施154次打击；乌克兰在多方向击退俄军进攻；美欧考虑停火后向乌提供安全 保护，德国总理默茨称必要时维和部队可对俄军动武，且欧洲有50%可能性用冻结的俄罗斯资产为乌提供至少两年资金支持。 消极面：失业率意外升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来（四年多）最高水平，部分受技术因素影响（政府停摆后联邦雇员自报失业、调查回应率仅64%低于正常 水平、"轮换偏差"），且失业率数据标准误差高于正常，需谨慎解读。 市场影响：就业反弹支撑美元缩 ...

非农数据公布后，国际油价快速跳水，WTI原油、布油跌破60美元后加速下挫。现货黄金上扬逾20美元，最高至4330美元/盎司。 市场方面，美股三大指数集体低开，道琼斯指数跌0.04%，标普500指数跌0.18%，纳斯达克综合指数跌0.23%。科技七巨头普跌，亚马逊涨 0.25%，特斯拉跌0.70%，苹果跌0.13%，Meta跌0.48%，谷歌跌1.30%，微软跌0.41%，英伟达跌0.24%。 当地时间周二（12月16日），美国劳工统计局发布报告称，11月的美国非农就业人数略高于预期。美联储将在明年1月举行2026年首次议息会 议。市场普遍预期，美联储继续降息的概率不大。 劳工统计局此前曾提醒，用于计算失业率的家庭调查数据，未来数月都将受到政府停摆的影响。由于难以统计10 月就业数据，当月的就业报 告以及备受关注的消费者物价指数报告均被迫取消发布。 劳工统计局每月发布的劳动力市场报告，基于两项内容详实的调查：一项针对企业与公共部门机构（统计就业人数、薪资水平与工时），另一 项则面向家庭（按人口统计特征追踪劳动力市场参与状态）。后者是与美国人口普查局合作开展的，普查局工作人员通过入户走访、电话、邮 件及线上问卷等 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is trading at $4267.29 per ounce, showing a slight decline after reaching around $4240 during the Asian trading session on Thursday [1][7] - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, the lowest level in three years, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [1][7] - The ongoing interest rate cuts are expected to provide medium-term support for gold prices, although geopolitical tensions may hinder a strong upward trend [1][2][8] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold has successfully broken through previous upward ranges and is currently above the $4200 mark, indicating a strong bullish trend [2][8] - The daily chart shows a series of upward movements, with MACD indicators indicating expanding positive momentum and RSI remaining in a strong zone without reaching extreme overbought levels [2][8] - Short-term resistance levels are identified between $4331 and $4381, while support is focused around the $4200 level [3][9] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - As of December 12, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $57.93 per barrel, with Brent crude oil at $61.28 per barrel, both experiencing declines due to geopolitical changes and excess fuel inventories in the U.S. [4][10] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of approximately 2.5 million barrels in gasoline and distillate inventories, indicating a surplus in the fuel market [4][10] - The potential for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could lead to an increase in Russian oil supply returning to the global market, impacting oil prices [4][10] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates a secondary oscillation pattern, with prices testing the strong support level around $56 [5][11] - Short-term trends are showing a downward direction, with MACD indicating a weakening of bearish momentum [5][11] - The recommended trading strategy for oil suggests focusing on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with key resistance levels at $59.5 to $60.5 and support at $57.0 to $56.0 [5][11]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.36%报 4227.7 美元/盎司；COMEX 白银期货涨 2.28%报 58.8 美 | | | | | 元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.15%报 958.72 元/克，沪银涨 2.67%报 13788 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 5 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 0.33 吨， | | | | | 当前持仓量为 1050.25 吨。全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 | | | | | 0.33 吨，当前持仓量为 1050.25 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的可能性约为 87%。 | ...

Group 1 - The domestic gold prices in retail stores remain stable, with the highest price at 1328 CNY per gram and the lowest at 1232 CNY per gram [1][3] - Major brands such as Lao Miao, Liufeng, and Chow Tai Fook have not changed their gold prices, maintaining stability [1][3] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices in stores is consistent at 96 CNY per gram [1] Group 2 - Platinum prices have decreased, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum jewelry now priced at 662 CNY per gram, down by 9 CNY [4] - The gold recycling prices have seen a slight increase of 2.7 CNY per gram, with significant price variations among different brands [4] - The current gold recycling prices for various brands range from 907.90 CNY to 942.60 CNY per gram [4] Group 3 - International gold prices showed fluctuations, with a recent low of 4173.79 USD per ounce and a high of 4241.17 USD per ounce, closing at 4206.63 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.09% increase [6] - As of the latest update, the spot gold price is reported at 4224.98 USD per ounce, indicating a 0.44% increase [6] - Analysts note that rising U.S. Treasury yields are limiting gold's upward potential, while fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index provide some support for gold prices [6]

周三，指标10年期国债收益率下跌2.9个基点至4.059%，30年期收益率回落1.6个基点至4.725%，而两年 期收益率下降3个基点至3.486%。这一收益率曲线的温和牛市陡峭化模式，主要反映了市场对美联储即 将降息的预期，两年期与10年期收益率利差维持在57个基点附近，早盘一度达到58.3个基点的高位，为 9月份以来最宽水平。 从技术面来看，日线连续两个小阴线收低，布林开始收口了，但是均线没有破位，所以暂时还不能说要 走出大跌空间，能看跌，至少要跌破布林中轨4150的支撑，跌破后空头的力度就来了，再看周五的下跌 空间。H4周期的区间范围比较明显了，布林收口，均线系统粘合，基本没有上面扩展性，所以，暂时 看不出多空的破位方向，简单来看，就关注今天金价的变化，上破4250再看4300，下破4180后，在看 4150。 周四(12月4日)亚洲时段，现货黄金短线下挫，日内跌破4200美元/盎司，周三黄金行情呈现出持稳态 势，现货黄金价格大多数时间稳定在每盎司4200上方，疲软的美国就业数据一度帮助金价盘中触及 4241.40美元的高点，但尾盘回吐涨幅，收报4203美元附近，接近收平。 美国私营部门就业岗位的意外下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY currency pair has shown increased short-term selling pressure, influenced by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data and market expectations regarding a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy [2][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Employment Data - The ADP employment report revealed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, contrasting with an increase of 47,000 jobs in October, which was revised from an initial estimate of 42,000 [3]. - This decline is the largest monthly drop since the beginning of 2023 and significantly underperformed market expectations of a 5,000 job increase, indicating potential signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming policy meeting is nearly 89%, up from 63% a month ago [4]. - This shift in expectations reflects growing concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which is impacting the value of the U.S. dollar [4]. Group 3: Japanese Central Bank Policy Expectations - Market expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan are providing support for the yen [5]. - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda mentioned that the central bank will consider the pros and cons of rate hikes in the next policy meeting, suggesting an increasing likelihood of adjustments to monetary policy in the near future [5]. Group 4: Market Influences on USD/JPY - The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. economic data performance, Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, Bank of Japan policy direction, and interest rate differentials between the two countries [5]. - Upcoming U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data may either alleviate short-term downward pressure on the dollar if it exceeds expectations or exacerbate it if it indicates further weakness in the labor market [5].