2月24日，当地时间周一，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒在第42届全国商业经济学会（NABE）经济政策年会上发表讲话，期间对他的鸽派立场进行些许修 正，同时强调美国经济数据正表现出令人困惑的反差。 作为背景，过去半年沃勒两度投票反对美联储利率决议，呼吁美国货币政策制定者应更加重视劳动力市场的疲软信号。 他认为，今年要么就业增长会重新出现，要么"我们正处在一个我此生从未见过的经济活动阶段"。他说："总有些东西必须被纠正。" 基于1月非农就业报告中的例行年度修正，美国2025年全年新增的非农就业数据只有18.1万个，折合每月仅为1.5万。考虑到修订数据仅涵盖前3个月，按照美 国就业数据"虚高"的惯例，后面9个月的数字很有可能在明年初迎来一波大幅下修。 沃勒警告称，2025年的就业创造异常疲弱，是自2002年以来、除经济衰退时期外最弱的一年。如果最终数据修订至负数，将会是1945年以来第三次发生这种 情况，因此"1个月的好消息并不能构成趋势"。 他也预告称，如果2月就业数字更贴近2025年的水平，他更有可能继续推动降息，而出现好坏两种结果的概率"几乎是抛硬币"。 他在周一的演讲中表示，如果2月数据能延续1月的强劲态势， ...

Core Insights - The report from ADP indicates that the average number of new jobs added in the U.S. for the four weeks ending January 31 was 10,250 [1] - This marks the third consecutive week of improvement, with the previous week's average new job additions reported at 7,750 [1] - ADP notes that these figures are preliminary and subject to change [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting perspectives on the U.S. employment data for January 2026, questioning whether the economy is experiencing a "strong recovery" or a "weak balance" [2] Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. added 300,000 jobs in January 2026, indicating a robust labor market [2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.0%, suggesting that the job market is not overheating [2] - Wage growth was reported at 3.5% year-over-year, reflecting moderate inflationary pressures [2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The strong job growth may lead to increased consumer spending, potentially boosting GDP growth [2] - However, the stable unemployment rate raises concerns about the sustainability of this growth, indicating a possible "weak balance" scenario [2] - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve may need to adjust interest rates in response to these mixed signals from the labor market [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Non - farm data exceeded expectations, weakening the expectation of interest rate cuts. London platinum and palladium oscillated weakly, and trading in the Asian session was light approaching holidays, with volatility lower than before. The market has increasing differences in interpreting non - farm data, and Fed officials still have differences in their statements. In the short term, the trend of platinum and palladium may follow that of gold and silver. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, platinum and palladium may have a phased catch - up opportunity. In the long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium dominates the trading rhythm. The supply uncertainty in South Africa and Russia and the implementation of new automobile emission policies make platinum more resilient than palladium, and the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market may continue. The report also gives the resistance and support levels for London platinum and palladium and the expected operating ranges for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 and palladium 2606 contracts [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 544.90 yuan/gram, down 5.80 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 430.05 yuan/gram, down 6.45 yuan. The main contract holding volume of platinum was 10,387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the main contract holding volume of palladium was 3,179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 541.04 yuan/gram, down 4.34 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River area was 410.00 yuan/gram, down 4.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 3.86 yuan/gram, up 1.46 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 20.05 yuan/gram, up 2.45 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 9,966.00, down 243.00; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 3,003.00, down 342.00. The total supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 96.93, up 0.07; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.86%, up 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 17.65, down 0.14. The US seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, far exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, and hourly wages increased by 0.4% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. Fed officials have different views on interest rates, and traders postponed the bet on Fed rate cuts from June to July [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that reaching an agreement with Iran would be the "preferred" choice. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March was 5.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 94.1%. The European Parliament voted to pass a financial assistance package for Ukraine, providing 90 billion euros in EU aid loans from 2026 to 2027, with 60 billion euros for Ukraine's defense needs [2]. 3.6 Key Areas of Concern - On March 12, at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 7; at 23:00, the total number of existing home sales in the US in January; and at 21:30, the US CPI data for January [2].

Group 1 - The EUR/USD currency pair has shown stability, trading around 1.1860 for three consecutive days, with market sentiment being cautious as traders await upcoming U.S. economic data for clearer direction [1] - The recent strengthening of the dollar against the euro is primarily due to changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments, supported by optimistic U.S. employment data [3] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, significantly above the market expectation of 70,000, while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%, contributing to reduced expectations for a loosening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2 - Current market expectations indicate a nearly 94% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain existing interest rates at the next monetary policy meeting, up from 80% the previous day, enhancing the dollar's attractiveness [3] - The European Central Bank's (ECB) stance on interest rates is a crucial support factor for the euro, with increasing market consensus that the ECB will keep rates stable for the remainder of the year [3] - Approximately 85% of economists surveyed in a Reuters poll believe the ECB will maintain its interest rates unchanged throughout 2026, which helps sustain the euro's appeal and mitigates the pressure from the strengthening dollar [4]

Group 1 - The article argues against the view that employment growth has been revised down by 60,000 jobs monthly since March 2025, suggesting a smaller adjustment of about 20,000 jobs instead [1] - Recent data indicates that private sector employment has shown minimal downward adjustment, with healthcare sector jobs contributing significantly to the overall growth [1] - The construction industry has seen strong growth, adding 33,000 jobs, while manufacturing has recorded its first increase since November 2024, with 5,000 new jobs [1] Group 2 - The expected breakeven point for non-farm employment growth in 2026 has been revised down to between 0 and 20,000 jobs, reflecting a more cautious outlook [2] - The analysis suggests that limited labor supply growth and moderate demand will characterize the labor market, influenced by demographic trends such as aging population and immigration policy restrictions [2] - A decline in job vacancies has been noted, which may impact the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments, as lower vacancies often correlate with rising unemployment [2][3] Group 3 - The article highlights the importance of the Beveridge Curve in understanding the inverse relationship between job vacancies and unemployment, which has been used to justify past interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Future insights into labor demand may be revealed in the upcoming January JOLTS report, although the low response rate of the survey may lead to significant monthly revisions [3] - Preliminary estimates for February suggest a non-farm employment increase of 65,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, with expectations that employment growth will slightly exceed the structural breakeven point in 2026 [3][4]

Core Insights - The strong January employment report led to the dollar recovering from previous losses and reaching intraday highs, while most G-10 currencies declined [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.3% after three consecutive days of decline, as traders reduced bets on the Federal Reserve's easing policy for the year [1] - Most G-10 currencies fell, with the Swiss franc and Swedish krona experiencing the largest declines, while the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone managed to maintain their gains [1] - Monthly job additions and average hourly earnings in the U.S. exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate was lower than widely anticipated [1]

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar has been on a downward trend against the US dollar for four consecutive trading days, driven by high oil prices and positive domestic economic data in Canada [1] - International oil prices remain high due to ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and concerns over potential supply disruptions, which have increased the risk premium on oil [1] - The EIA's short-term energy outlook predicts Brent crude oil prices at $58 per barrel and WTI prices at $53.42 per barrel for 2026, indicating strong support for oil prices [1] Group 2 - Canada's unemployment rate has dropped to 6.5%, the lowest since September 2024, significantly better than the market expectation of 6.8%, alleviating concerns about an economic slowdown [1] - The improvement in the job market has reduced investor expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Canada, leading to a favorable shift in interest rate differentials for the Canadian dollar [1] - The upcoming US employment report is a key focus, with expectations of a 70,000 increase in non-farm payrolls and an unemployment rate holding at 4.4%, which could influence the direction of the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]

Market Overview - Crypto markets experienced a sharp decline as U.S. stocks opened for trade, but most losses were quickly recovered. Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $69,200, showing a marginal decrease from the previous day, while Ether (ETH) fell by 1.8%, along with similar declines in XRP and Solana [1]. Trading Dynamics - Bitcoin's current drawdown is the most significant since the 2024 halving, with low trading volumes during the decline indicating that retail investors are stepping back rather than selling aggressively. The market is approaching critical technical support levels that will determine the integrity of the four-year cycle framework [2]. - Trading firm Wintermute anticipates that Bitcoin will remain within the current price range as it is still in price discovery. Recent price movements have been influenced more by leveraged derivatives than by spot demand, with light spot volumes making prices sensitive to crowded positions. The firm noted that last Friday's rebound was a result of a short squeeze in perpetual futures, and the return of volatility surprised investors after a period of complacency [3]. Economic Indicators - The January Nonfarm Payrolls Report, originally scheduled for last Friday, is now set to be released on Wednesday morning, with forecasts predicting an addition of 70,000 jobs, an increase from 50,000 in December. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.4% [4]. - White House trade counselor Peter Navarro suggested that expectations for job growth need to be significantly revised lower, echoing sentiments from White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who advised markets not to panic over weak jobs data [5]. Bond Market Reaction - The bond market has reacted to these comments, with the 10-year Treasury yield decreasing by 5 basis points to 4.14%. Typically, lower interest rates and easier Federal Reserve monetary policy are favorable for assets like Bitcoin; however, Bitcoin has declined even as the Fed has reduced rates by 75 basis points in recent months [6].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Director of the U.S. National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, indicated that U.S. job growth is expected to gradually decline in the coming months due to slowing population growth, aligning with current high GDP growth [2] - The upcoming January employment report is anticipated to show an addition of 69,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.4% [2] - BMO Capital Markets' Chief U.S. Economist, Scott Anderson, warned that this year's annual benchmark revisions will have a greater impact than in previous years, as the labor market is on the "knife's edge" between net job growth and losses [2] Group 2: Labor Market Insights - The labor market last year was characterized by "low hiring, low layoffs," but the upcoming revisions may reveal a more severe slowdown in hiring, potentially altering the Federal Reserve's assessment of the employment situation [3] - Recent data supports the view that job growth may have been overestimated, with January layoffs reaching a record high for the same period since the Great Recession, and December job openings falling to the lowest level since 2020 [3] Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price opened at 1118.41 yuan per gram, down 6.18 yuan or 0.55% from the previous trading day, indicating a downward trend [1] - The gold price reached a high of 1127.77 yuan per gram and a low of 1108.13 yuan per gram during the trading session [1] - The bullish momentum in the gold market remains strong, with any pullback seen as a buying opportunity, as indicated by the price action and technical analysis [4]