Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% on September 18, marking the first rate cut in 9 months since December of the previous year[1] - The Fed's economic and inflation forecasts have improved, with GDP growth expectations for this year and next raised by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% and 1.8% respectively[5] - The Fed now anticipates three rate cuts for the year, up from two previously expected, indicating a more dovish stance[5] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The Fed is increasingly concerned about the employment market, with recent data showing a significant downward revision in non-farm payrolls, indicating a cooling job market[6] - Inflation concerns are also rising, with tariffs contributing approximately 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to the current inflation rate of 2.9%[6] - The Fed's decision to cut rates reflects a prioritization of employment risks over inflation pressures[6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock indices showed mixed reactions, which is typical as rate cuts often signal underlying economic concerns[13] - In contrast, global markets, including Japan and Europe, experienced strong gains, highlighting the positive liquidity effects of the Fed's decision[14] - The Chinese stock market saw a significant decline, attributed to profit-taking and the prior anticipation of the rate cut, rather than a lack of dovishness from the Fed[14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The Fed's rate cut cycle is expected to continue, potentially exceeding current expectations, influenced by rising employment risks and consumer confidence declines[7] - The potential appointment of a more dovish Fed chair by President Trump could lead to more aggressive rate cuts in the future[12] - Long-term trends for precious metals remain bullish, as the Fed's actions may weaken the dollar's credibility[16]

瑞银最新发布的研究报告预测，随着美国通胀水平逐步趋近政策目标区间，同时劳动力市场潜在风险持续累积，美联储可能自今年九月起启动新一轮降息周 期。该行预计，美联储将在接下来的四次会议中连续实施降息，累计下调利率一百个基点，以应对经济面临的挑战。 瑞银分析师指出，近期多项经济指标为降息提供了充分依据。七月份美国个人消费支出价格指数表现温和，核心PCE同比小幅上升至百分之二点九，整体 PCE同比稳定在百分之二点六，完全符合市场预期。这一数据表明，尽管服务成本仍保持一定粘性，但能源价格回落和商品通胀稳定有效抵消了其影响，同 时住房通胀放缓也为整体物价控制提供了支持。目前物价压力整体处于可控状态，未出现加速上行趋势。 报告认为，当前美国经济面临的主要风险已从通胀转向就业市场。虽然失业率仍维持在历史低位，但多项先行指标显示就业需求正在走弱。美联储最新会议 纪要显示，政策制定者预计失业率将在年底前升至自然率上方，并在未来几年内保持较高水平。鲍威尔此前已发出警告，称如果企业裁员潮加剧，就业市场 状况可能快速恶化。瑞银强调，对就业市场风险的关注已经超过对通胀残余压力的担忧。 此外，美联储官员近期的表态也传递出明显的政策转向信号。 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated the content of the semi-annual monetary policy report during congressional testimonies, indicating no new information but acknowledging the potential lower-than-expected impact of tariffs on inflation and the possibility of earlier rate cuts, which garnered market attention [1][3] - Fed officials Waller and Bowman expressed support for a rate cut in July, with Waller emphasizing the need to act to avoid risks in the labor market, stating that inflation has not surged as feared and it is time to initiate the rate-cutting process [1][2] - Bowman, previously a hawkish member, indicated support for a rate cut if inflation remains controlled, citing recent lower-than-expected inflation data and the need to consider the weakening labor market [2] Group 2 - Powell's comments during the hearing reflected a cautious approach, acknowledging that the impact of tariffs on retail prices may be less than anticipated, which could influence Fed policy decisions [3] - The Fed's semi-annual report maintains that inflation expectations are aligned with the 2% target, despite concerns about tariffs potentially raising inflation, leading to a careful stance on rate cuts [3] - Current employment levels are balanced, but rising unemployment claims could prompt a rate cut if June employment data shows weakness, although Powell downplayed signs of labor market fatigue [4]