美联储在北京时间9月18日凌晨做出的降息决定，是一场被市场充分预演了的"大戏"。联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25?.5%下调至4.0?.25%。美联储主席鲍威尔 在会后坦言，这是一次"风险管理型"降息，他们的注意力"全部集中在就业市场上"。 这意味着，美国货币政策的重心正在从过去两年猛踩刹车的"抗通胀"，转向谨慎地轻点油门的"防衰退"。 消息落地后，全球市场的反应并不是一片欢腾，反而有点"利好出尽是利空"的味道。美股三大指数涨跌互现，道指微涨，纳指却小幅收跌。美元指数玩了个 先跌后涨，国际金价也冲高回落。 这种波动恰恰暴露了市场的分歧：投资者一方面欢迎降息带来的流动性，另一方面又担忧鲍威尔"无需迅速调整利率"的谨慎表态，是否意味着未来的降息步 伐会非常缓慢。 对于中国而言，这场来自外部的变化，机遇远大于挑战。最立竿见影的效果体现在汇率上。美联储降息缩小了中美之间的利差，人民币对美元的贬值压力显 著减轻。 在降息前夕，离岸人民币兑美元汇率就已升破7.1关口，创下去年11月以来的新高。人民币企稳升值，相当于给中国的进口企业发了个"成本下降"红包，特 别是能源、原材料进口企业的利润空间会得到改善。 中国人民银行的货币 ...

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on October 29, 2025, aligning with market expectations[5] - The decision to end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, 2025, was also in response to market pressures[9] Internal Disagreements - A notable division within the Federal Reserve was highlighted, with 12 voting members: 10 supported a 25 basis point cut, one (Milan) advocated for a 50 basis point cut, and one (Schmidt) opposed any cut[8] - The divergence indicates increasing internal disagreements regarding economic data and future rate adjustments[8] Economic Indicators - Employment appears stable, with the Fed's language shifting from a focus on slowing to a more stable outlook[9] - Inflation remains relatively high compared to earlier in the year, with the Fed acknowledging ongoing pressures[9] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged above 4.05%, reflecting a hawkish market interpretation[11] - The U.S. dollar index briefly exceeded 99.3 before retreating, indicating volatility in response to the Fed's statements[11] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index continued to decline in October, reflecting growing uncertainty in the U.S. economy[18] - Factors contributing to this decline include perceived job market cooling and fluctuating inflation expectations[18] Future Outlook - The outlook for further rate cuts has weakened, with market expectations for a December cut now at approximately 67% probability[18] - The market may shift focus back to geopolitical risks and corporate earnings as consumer confidence wanes[18] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions[26]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Reaction - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping over $3,500 and falling below $110,000, while Ethereum and XRP also saw declines exceeding 2% [1][3] - In the last 24 hours, nearly $588 million in cryptocurrency contracts were liquidated, affecting over 133,000 traders, with long positions accounting for $455 million and short positions for $133 million [3][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking the second cut of the year, which aligned with market expectations [5][8] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the market's expectation for another rate cut in December is "far from certain," suggesting internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy [5][8] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Powell's hawkish remarks have dampened market sentiment, leading to increased risk aversion, as evidenced by a slight rise in gold prices, which may be limited by optimistic trade negotiation prospects [1][5] - The U.S. Treasury market saw its largest single-day decline in nearly five months, as Powell's comments prompted investors to reassess future rate cut expectations [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with Bitcoin dropping over $3,500 and falling below the $110,000 mark, leading to a total liquidation of nearly $588 million in contracts within 24 hours [1][3][5]. Cryptocurrency Market Summary - Bitcoin fell by 2.58% to $109,900, Ethereum decreased by 2.45% to $3,882, and XRP also saw a decline of over 2% [3]. - A total of 133,600 traders were liquidated, with long positions accounting for $455 million and short positions for $133 million [3][4]. - The largest single liquidation occurred on Bybit-BTCUSD, valued at $11 million [3]. Federal Reserve Actions Summary - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the second cut of the year, which was in line with market expectations [5][10]. - Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the market's expectations for a December rate cut are "far from certain," which negatively impacted market sentiment [5][6]. - The internal discussions within the Fed revealed differing views on employment and inflation, highlighting a growing divide among policymakers [6][10]. Market Reactions Summary - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. Treasury bonds experienced their largest single-day drop in nearly five months, reflecting a shift in market expectations regarding future rate cuts [8][9]. - Analysts noted that Powell's comments were aimed at resetting market expectations for December, suggesting that the likelihood of further rate cuts may be limited [8][9]. - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December is currently estimated at 67.8%, with a 32.2% chance of maintaining the current rate [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to a significant drop in U.S. Treasury yields, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly five months, while Chairman Powell's strong policy signals have created uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to 3.75%-4% amid a weakening labor market, but Powell indicated that further cuts in December are not guaranteed, impacting the $30 trillion Treasury market [1]. - The Fed will end its quantitative tightening (QT) operations on December 1, having removed over $2 trillion from the system since June 2022 [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, the two-year Treasury yield rose by 11 basis points to 3.6%, reflecting a significant repricing of policy expectations [1]. - Market expectations for the implied rate cut by September 2026 increased from 3% to 3.15% [1]. - The meeting's outcome deviated from initial market expectations, which anticipated a 25 basis point cut and a quicker end to QT, now accompanied by hawkish signals that may prolong selling pressure on Treasuries [3]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions - There are notable divisions among Fed officials regarding the labor market risks and the appropriate level of the neutral interest rate, with some advocating for larger cuts while others suggest delaying action [2]. - Concerns about differing viewpoints among committee members have diminished as Powell's term nears its end [2].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, adjusting the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first cut in nine months since December [1][3] - The immediate market reaction included a brief decline in U.S. Treasury yields, a strengthening of the dollar index, and a mixed performance in U.S. stock markets, with notable gains in Chinese stocks like Baidu and Alibaba [3][5] - The decision to cut rates was influenced by weakening employment data, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest in four years, and a significant drop in non-farm payrolls [3][5] Group 2 - Political factors played a role in the decision, as President Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve for aggressive rate cuts, but the voting outcome showed a strong consensus with only one dissenting vote [5][7] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach indicates its independence from political pressures, with future rate cuts expected to be limited to a total of approximately 125 basis points over the next two years, contrasting with Trump's demand for 300 basis points [5][7] - The Federal Reserve's balanced response to economic data and market expectations reinforces its credibility and independence, marking a "quiet victory" for Chairman Powell [7][10] Group 3 - The interest rate cut is expected to benefit certain participants in the global financial market, particularly investors in emerging market assets, as lower U.S. asset yields may drive capital towards markets like China [7][8] - For China, the influx of capital could enhance market liquidity and stabilize the financial environment, although it may also increase pressure on the renminbi and challenge exports [8][10] - Overall, China is positioned advantageously in the global capital reallocation process, benefiting from its large economy and relatively stable financial system [8][10]

Group 1 - The Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasizes a cautious approach to further rate cuts due to persistent inflation above the Fed's target and an upward trajectory [1][2] - Fed Governor Michelle Bowman highlights the risk of falling behind economic conditions due to a rapidly weakening labor market, advocating for decisive action to lower rates [1][4] - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first reduction since December 2024, with expectations for two more cuts this year [2][3] Group 2 - The FOMC dot plot indicates significant divergence among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with 7 officials predicting no further cuts this year and 2 supporting only one more cut [3] - Powell describes the recent rate cut as a "risk management" move aimed at adjusting monetary policy from a "moderately tight" stance to a more neutral position [3][4] - Bowman warns that the FOMC needs to act more swiftly in response to the deteriorating labor market conditions, suggesting a need for faster and larger adjustments to monetary policy [4][5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% on September 18, marking the first rate cut in 9 months since December of the previous year[1] - The Fed's economic and inflation forecasts have improved, with GDP growth expectations for this year and next raised by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% and 1.8% respectively[5] - The Fed now anticipates three rate cuts for the year, up from two previously expected, indicating a more dovish stance[5] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The Fed is increasingly concerned about the employment market, with recent data showing a significant downward revision in non-farm payrolls, indicating a cooling job market[6] - Inflation concerns are also rising, with tariffs contributing approximately 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to the current inflation rate of 2.9%[6] - The Fed's decision to cut rates reflects a prioritization of employment risks over inflation pressures[6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock indices showed mixed reactions, which is typical as rate cuts often signal underlying economic concerns[13] - In contrast, global markets, including Japan and Europe, experienced strong gains, highlighting the positive liquidity effects of the Fed's decision[14] - The Chinese stock market saw a significant decline, attributed to profit-taking and the prior anticipation of the rate cut, rather than a lack of dovishness from the Fed[14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The Fed's rate cut cycle is expected to continue, potentially exceeding current expectations, influenced by rising employment risks and consumer confidence declines[7] - The potential appointment of a more dovish Fed chair by President Trump could lead to more aggressive rate cuts in the future[12] - Long-term trends for precious metals remain bullish, as the Fed's actions may weaken the dollar's credibility[16]

Group 1: Global Asset Performance - Global major asset performance this week shows stocks outperforming bonds, commodities, and REITs, with MSCI Global Stock Index rising by 0.99% [1] - Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, with MSCI Emerging Markets up by 1.15% compared to MSCI Developed Markets at 0.97% [2] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 5.09%, leading global stock indices, while the U.S. stock indices reached historical highs [2] - In developed markets, the U.S. indices (Nasdaq +2.21%, S&P 500 +1.22%, Dow Jones +1.05%) performed well, while European indices showed weakness [2] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices fluctuated, starting at $68.47 per barrel and settling at $66.68, reflecting a weekly decline of 0.46% [3] - Gold prices reached a new high of $3,685.30 per ounce, increasing by 1.16% this week, while silver rose by 2.13% to $43.08 per ounce [3] Group 4: Bond Market Developments - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0%-4.25%, impacting U.S. Treasury yields [4][6] - European countries saw an increase in ten-year government bond yields, with the UK rising by 8.2 basis points to 4.714% [4] Group 5: Economic Data Highlights - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, significantly above the expected 0.2%, indicating continued consumer spending [5] - The Eurozone's August CPI growth was 2.0%, slightly below the expected 2.1%, suggesting easing inflationary pressures [5] Group 6: Central Bank Decisions - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting acknowledged rising inflation levels and adjusted GDP growth forecasts upward for the next three years [6][7] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates but indicated a shift in its approach by starting to reduce ETF holdings [7] Group 7: REITs Market Overview - Global REITs performance varied, with the STOXX Global 1800 REITs Index declining by 1.25%, while U.S. REITs showed positive earnings growth in various sectors [13][14] - The healthcare REITs are expected to maintain relative earnings growth advantages, while retail REITs show stable growth [13]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25% [1] - The market had anticipated this decision, but the reaction was mixed, with initial excitement in the stock market followed by a decline, and the dollar index showing volatility [1] - The Fed's decision reflects concerns over a weakening labor market, as the language in their statement shifted from "robust labor market" to "slowing job growth and a slight increase in unemployment" [3] Group 2 - Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed worries about the labor market, noting that both supply and demand are cooling, with significant downside risks [5] - The U.S. GDP growth rate has dropped to around 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, indicating a potential economic slowdown [5] - Inflation remains a concern, with recent data showing an uptick, and the Fed has raised its inflation expectations for the next two years, predicting a return to the 2% target only by 2028 [5] Group 3 - Tariffs are contributing approximately 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to core inflation, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding further rate cuts [7] - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management" move, prioritizing fears of job market decline over concerns about inflation [7] - There is internal division within the Fed regarding future rate cuts, with some officials advocating for more aggressive cuts while others caution against further reductions [16] Group 4 - Powell's cautious demeanor during the press conference reflects significant political pressure, as he emphasized the Fed's commitment to maintaining its independence [9][11] - The Fed's approach to future policy is described as "data-dependent," indicating that decisions will be based on economic indicators rather than external pressures [12][14] - The current economic environment suggests a gradual approach to monetary easing, rather than a rapid influx of liquidity, which could lead to different implications for various asset classes [18][22] Group 5 - The impact of the Fed's actions on different markets varies, with potential benefits for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the tech sector, due to improved dollar liquidity [18] - In contrast, the A-share market may see selective foreign investment, favoring companies with global competitiveness in sectors like renewable energy and AI [20] - The Chinese central bank is unlikely to follow suit with immediate rate cuts, focusing instead on targeted measures to support the economy [20]