Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the back-to-school season in the U.S. is experiencing widespread price increases across various categories due to U.S. government tariff policies and other factors [1] - The average price of a typical back-to-school supply kit has risen by 7.3% this season [1] - Online prices for clothing, shoes, bags, and accessories in the U.S. surged by 9% year-on-year in July [1] Group 2 - A significant portion of school supplies sold in the U.S. is sourced from China, which is now subject to a 30% tariff on ordinary goods entering the U.S. [1]

新华社北京8月5日电 美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心一项最新民意调查显示，在物价持续上涨和对美国特朗普政府关税政策影响普遍关注等 因素作用下，大部分美国成年人为日用品价格感到焦虑。 美联社4日援引调查结果报道，约半数受访者表示，日用品价格是造成其当下生活压力的"主要"因素；另有33%受访者认为这是"次要"因素； 只有14%的受访者认为这完全不构成压力。 5月20日，顾客在美国加利福尼亚州洛杉矶县一家沃尔玛商店内采购商品。新华社发（邱晨摄） 调查显示，由于预算紧张，近三成受访者开始尝试"先买后付"的支付方式。 美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心于7月10日至14日向1437名美国成年人发起上述调查，调查人群能够充分代表美国人口构成。 美国耶鲁大学预算实验室最新报告分析估算，美国政府今年已推出的所有关税措施会让美国国内物价水平短期内上涨2.1%，相当于每户美国 家庭损失2800美元。由于食品和服装等必需品支出增加，美国低收入家庭可支配收入的损失将是富裕家庭的三倍。（袁原） 这张5月21日在美国加利福尼亚州洛杉矶县一家沃尔玛超市拍摄的图片显示自哥斯达黎加进口的香蕉价格已经涨至每磅54美分。新华社记者高 山摄 调查显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July meeting is under intense scrutiny, with expectations to maintain interest rates unchanged amid significant political pressure from President Trump and other officials to lower rates [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50% during the July meeting [5]. - Despite political pressures, there are no indications that the Federal Reserve will yield to these demands, as it emphasizes its independence and decision-making based on economic data [5]. - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging environment due to the potential economic impacts of Trump's tariff policies, which complicate its decision-making process regarding inflation and economic growth [6]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Implications - President Trump and various government officials have exerted unprecedented pressure on the Federal Reserve to significantly lower interest rates, with some officials labeling the current rate levels as unreasonable [3][4]. - Trump's recent visit to the Federal Reserve, which was unannounced, is viewed as a political maneuver aimed at undermining Powell's public image and pushing for rate cuts [3]. - The high level of government debt, with interest payments nearing $1 trillion for the fiscal year, is a critical factor driving the push for lower rates, as it may affect budget allocations for other important projects [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision-making committee, which includes several members whose terms extend beyond Trump's presidency, may not necessarily follow the directives of a new chair if Powell were to be replaced [4]. - Analysts suggest that if inflation remains relatively low, the Federal Reserve might consider lowering rates in September, despite the current political climate [6].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Federal Reserve officials' comments have raised expectations for earlier interest rate cuts, with Governor Waller indicating support for cuts if high tariffs harm the job market [1] - Cleveland Fed President Mester suggested that rate action could occur as soon as June if clearer economic direction is obtained [1] Group 2: Stock Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones up 1.23%, Nasdaq up 2.74%, and S&P 500 up 2.03%, driven by the anticipation of interest rate cuts [2] - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Tesla, Amazon, and Microsoft rising over 3%, while semiconductor stocks like Micron and Broadcom increased by over 6% [2] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Economic Concerns - A recent poll indicated that 47% of Americans believe tariffs will lead to significant price increases, with 53% expressing extreme concern over potential economic recession due to tariff policies [3][4] - Nearly 90% of respondents are worried about rising grocery prices in the coming months, reflecting deteriorating consumer sentiment [4] Group 4: Corporate Earnings and Forecast Adjustments - Procter & Gamble has lowered its revenue and profit expectations for fiscal year 2025, citing deteriorating consumer spending in the U.S. [4] - Hasbro warned of potential $300 million losses and up to $180 million in profit reductions if current tariff policies persist [4] - PepsiCo and American Airlines have also adjusted their annual profit forecasts downward due to increased production costs and economic uncertainty stemming from tariff policies [5] Group 5: Market Predictions and Analyst Adjustments - Deutsche Bank's strategy team has revised its year-end S&P 500 target down to 6,150 points, predicting a 5% decline in earnings, contrary to the general expectation of an 8% increase [5]