Group 1: Employment Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is deteriorating, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, and non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000 [1][2] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months is only 33,500, far below the average of 93,700 jobs per month since the beginning of the century, indicating a potential recession [4][9] - The quality of job growth is low, with most new jobs concentrated in low-income sectors, while higher-paying industries like manufacturing and retail are losing jobs [8][9] Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariff Policies - The new tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration are disrupting economic order and increasing inflationary pressures, negatively impacting the manufacturing sector [10][11] - The manufacturing sector has seen job losses of 16,000, 15,000, and 11,000 in May, June, and July respectively, indicating the adverse effects of the tariffs [10] - The unpredictability of the new tariff policies poses a significant risk to the U.S. economy, with potential implications for interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [11] Group 3: Market Reactions - Despite strong earnings reports from major companies like META, Microsoft, and Apple, U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, indicating investor concerns about market valuations [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.92%, the S&P 500 by 2.36%, and the Nasdaq by 2.17%, reflecting a broader market correction [2] - The dollar index closed at 98.47, down 1.28%, while gold futures rose by $51, indicating a flight to safety among investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price is experiencing weak fluctuations around $3,330, influenced by technical resistance and market uncertainties regarding U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Economic Data - Recent U.S. inflation and employment data show strong performance, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) remaining flat month-on-month and a narrowing year-on-year increase, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates persistent inflation [3]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may only implement limited rate cuts within the year, despite high core CPI and hawkish comments from Fed officials [3]. Market Reactions - President Trump's comments about potentially dismissing Fed Chair Powell caused short-term volatility, pushing gold prices to a three-and-a-half-week high of $3,377, but subsequent denial led to a return to rational market sentiment [3]. - New tariffs on pharmaceuticals and copper have heightened global market risk aversion, providing some support for gold prices [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading in the lower Bollinger Band range after a peak of $3,499.83, indicating a consolidation phase with key resistance at $3,444.82 and support at $3,278 [4]. - The MACD indicator shows a bearish trend, but diminishing selling pressure suggests a potential weak rebound [5]. - The RSI is stable at 49.47, indicating neutral market sentiment but slightly weak, with no clear direction expected in the short term [5].