以沃勒和鲍曼为代表的激进降息派官员强调，关税并非没有传导效应，但在需求和供给侧都存在抑制涨价的因素。他们指出，技术进步带来的长周期趋势 性价格下降，如玩具和电子产品等，也会对冲关税的一次性跳升对通胀的影响。 近期，关于美国联邦储备系统（美联储）是否将在年内降息的讨论愈发激烈。尽管在6月的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上，美联储主席鲍威尔表 示美国劳动力市场并未迫切需要降息，但随后发布的一系列经济数据却似乎在暗示降息的必要性。 与6月FOMC会议的点阵图相比，美联储官员们近期的言论显得更为丰富多样。值得注意的是，他们的分歧并不极端，更多的是围绕9月是否降息以及7月 降息的条件展开激烈讨论。事实上，并没有真正的鹰派官员认为美国经济完全不需要降息，分歧仅在于降息的幅度和时机。 鲍威尔在提出多种前提条件的情况下，为大幅且连续的降息打开了绿灯。尽管官员们的发言依然保持相对平衡，与先前FOMC传递的信号无太大差异，但 降息的确定性正在增强，市场也朝着更为鸽派的理解方向前进。这一变化导致整条利率曲线较上周平行下行约10个基点。 目前来看，美国未来的降息路径似乎正在朝着劳动力市场滞后下行的情形展开，而一个较弱的非农就业数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing likelihood of interest rate cuts in the U.S. as economic data signals a weakening labor market, despite the Federal Reserve's previous stance that the labor market is not in distress [1][3][11]. Economic Indicators - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate a shift towards a more dovish outlook, with discussions around the conditions for potential rate cuts intensifying [3][14]. - The U.S. economic momentum index has fallen back to levels seen in September of the previous year, aligning closely with the trends in the U.S. dollar index [4]. - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index has declined, further confirming the cooling trend in the labor market [11]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Officials emphasize that tariffs do not solely drive inflation; rather, both demand and supply-side factors are suppressing price increases [5]. - Analysis of inflation changes in goods with HS-4 codes shows a weak correlation between tariff increases and CPI growth, indicating limited impact on overall inflation levels [5]. - Technological advancements in various sectors, such as toys and electronics, contribute to long-term price declines, counteracting the one-time effects of tariffs [5]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Following a period of recession-level expectations, U.S. corporate capital expenditure (CAPEX) forecasts have shown some recovery, although they remain at levels similar to those in September of the previous year [10]. Market Sentiment - The market is increasingly pricing in a faster or larger rate cut, although this sentiment has not been fully captured in market pricing [14]. - The recent statements from Fed officials have increased the certainty of rate cuts, with a consensus emerging around the potential for a downward shift in economic conditions [14].