Group 1 - The U.S. federal government officially shut down, affecting over 600,000 federal employees who will be on unpaid leave, raising concerns about a potential short-term increase in unemployment rates [3] - The government shutdown adds uncertainty to U.S. economic growth momentum and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [3] - Fitch Ratings indicated that the government shutdown will not impact the U.S. sovereign rating in the short term, while S&P noted that the shutdown could reduce GDP by 0.1-0.2 percentage points per week [3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded a net inflow of HKD 15.4 billion on Tuesday, with Alibaba (09988.HK) seeing the highest net inflow of HKD 3.6 billion, followed by the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800.HK) [3] - Conversely, UBTECH (09880.HK) experienced the largest net outflow of HKD 63 million, followed by Crystal International (02228.HK) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent weak U.S. non-farm payroll report has raised doubts about the momentum of U.S. economic growth, leading to a resurgence in interest rate cut expectations and a significant rise in U.S. Treasury prices [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased to 84%, with a growing likelihood of a 50 basis point cut [1] - The employment data has disrupted market calm, indicating that "bad news is bad news" has returned to the trading framework [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - A steepening bull market in U.S. Treasuries is underway, with short-term yields dropping significantly due to rate cut expectations [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by over 25 basis points in a single day, while long-term Treasuries also showed a general recovery as investors repositioned their portfolios [1] Group 3: Future Projections - The market is re-evaluating the potential for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year [1] - A large volume of Treasury issuance is expected this week, which may support the steepening of the yield curve [1]