Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US-China trade relations** and its implications on the US economy, particularly focusing on tariff rates and inflation expectations. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **De-escalation of Trade Conflict**: There has been a significant reduction in tariff rates between the US and China, with the US reducing its trade-weighted tariff rate on China from approximately **155% to 40%**. China is expected to reciprocate with similar reductions [3][3]. 2. **Impact on Inflation and Economic Growth**: The reduction in tariffs is anticipated to lead to a less significant jump in inflation, with the updated forecast indicating that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will only cut its policy rate by **25 basis points (bp)** in December 2025, followed by three additional cuts in 2026 [1][7]. 3. **GDP Growth Projections**: The GDP growth forecast has been adjusted to **0.5% in 2025** and **1.5% in 2026**, with a quarterly growth expectation of **1.0%** in Q2 2025, **0.5%** in Q3, and **1.0%** in Q4 [3][12]. 4. **Unemployment Rate Expectations**: The unemployment rate is projected to peak at **4.3%** in Q4 2025, with payroll employment growth slowing to **75,000 jobs per month** [4][12]. 5. **Inflation Forecasts**: Core PCE inflation is now expected to be **3.3%** in Q4 2025, down from a previous forecast of **3.8%**. For 2026, core PCE inflation is projected at **2.2%** [7][7]. 6. **Tariff Rate Implications**: The overall trade-weighted tariff rate is estimated to be around **14%**, significantly lower than the previous **25%** [5][5]. This reduction is expected to diminish cost-push inflationary pressures over the medium term [7][7]. Additional Important Content 1. **Labor Market Dynamics**: The labor market is expected to hold up, with no job losses anticipated due to the absence of a recession in H2 2025 [4][4]. 2. **Federal Reserve's Policy Stance**: The Fed is expected to maintain its current rates until there is sufficient evidence of moderation in inflation, with the first cut anticipated in December 2025 [7][7]. 3. **Sectoral Tariffs**: The analysis includes placeholders for **25% sectoral tariffs** on pharmaceuticals and microchips, which are expected to be implemented soon, potentially increasing the trade-weighted tariff rate by about **3 percentage points (pp)** [2][2]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications of US-China trade relations on the US economy, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.

美国关税政策在全球范围内掀起一波又一波风暴，使宏观经济格局巨变，各类资产亟需破局之道。 彭博中国市场快评系列活动推出 关税专题网络研讨会 （共两期），彭博首席经济学家及业内专家 将围绕关税相关热点议题，向大家分享最新研究成果与洞见，助您在复杂多变的宏观环境中保持高 瞻视角，破局远航！ 关税系列主题第二期 展望美国经济，聚焦中国股票与消费市场 活动时间 第一期： (已结束) 2025年4月17日（星期四）| 16:30 - 17:15 第二期： 2025年4月24日（星期四）| 16:30 - 17:15 主要议题 主讲嘉宾 Anna Wong 彭博美国首席经济学家 美国宏观经济展望 中美不确定性与A股市场 悬而未决的关税对中国消费市场的影响 Marvin Chen 彭博行业研究资深股票策略师 林爱娜 彭博行业研究亚太地区主管，亚太消费及科技行业高级分析师 扫码立即报名 * 报名需要时间审核，敬请耐心等待。审核通过将在微信收到报名成功提醒，活动开始前将会收到具体参会提醒，请注意查收！ * 彭博Bloomberg保留活动的最终解释权。 ...