证券研究报告|宏观专题报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 关税变数下，出口增速几何？ [Table_Summary] 投资要点: ► 2026 年一季度出口增速及特征预判 高频贸易指标与低频出口数据存在时间不同步性，我们将周频港口吞 吐数据做移动平均处理，使其周期与月频数据匹配。计量结果显示， 港口吞吐量对出口具有领先指示意义。 我们预计 1 月份出口增速将受基数因素与出口规范性措施扰动，较去 年 12 月小幅回落，降至 4.6%左右。2 月出口则受春节错位因素影 响，增速则将大幅回升至 16%左右。3 月则因春节滞后效应出现回落 （类似 2015、2018 及 2024 年）。 ► 不同关税情境下的全年出口展望 短期，IEEPA 关税取消，关税水平下降将带来出口窗口期。美国关税 下降有利于全球贸易回暖：中国直接对美出口关税下降 10%，东南亚 等国对美出口成本也将下降 5%左右（若 122 关税升至 15%）；同时， 未来关税不确定或带来新一轮抢出口。 长期，122 关税能否延长是出口走势核心变数： 1）若 122 关税得以延长：特朗普政府整体关税框 ...

尽管消费数据支撑了表面上的增长，但许多经济学家对未来的经济前景持更为审慎的态度。威尔明顿信托的首席经济学家卢克·蒂利提醒，看似稳健的经济 数据背后隐藏着不容忽视的脆弱性。他预估未来一年美国经济陷入衰退的可能性约为百分之四十五，其担忧主要源于就业市场的增长极其缓慢，以及消费者 在信用卡债务、住房抵押贷款和汽车贷款等方面的违约现象开始抬头，这些都是经济基础趋弱的重要信号。 布米普特拉北京投资基金分析师指出，这种复 杂的经济局面也给美联储的政策制定带来了巨大挑战。在去年内三次下调借贷成本后，面对通胀前景和就业市场走向的诸多不确定性，美联储目前选择暂停 进一步行动，以观察更多经济数据的走向。 美国经济在二零二五年年末意外遇冷，根据美国经济分析局本周五发布的最新数据，去年第四季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）年化季环比增长率初值大幅放 缓至百分之一点四，远低于此前几个季度的表现。纵观整个二零二五年，美国全年经济增长率为百分之二点二，与二零二四年的百分之二点八相比，放缓趋 势十分明显。 这份数据揭示了美国经济扩张步伐减慢的现状。分析指出，造成年末经济失速的主要原因在于持续的关税政策对商业活动构成了压力，同时去年十月开始的 政 ...

2026.02.08 本文字数：3884，阅读时长大约6.5分钟 作者 |第一财经 刘晓颖 刚进入2026年，体育消费用品圈就先迎来一波震荡。 "老大哥"耐克集团在1月下旬一口气公布了全球四大区域中三个区域的高层管理人士调整。其中，现任 大中华区CEO董炜将于3月31日正式卸任。同期，耐克也公布了欧洲、中东及非洲分部的管理层调整。 董炜的离任让人意外但又或是早晚之事。业绩承压成为高管们"下课"最直接导火索。作为全球体育消费 品牌的领头羊，耐克近两年深陷业绩困局，其大中华区业务持续低迷：2025财年（2024年6月1日至2025 年5月31日），大中华区营收同比降幅达13%，也是耐克全球跌幅最大的市场。2026财年第二季度 （2025年9月1日11月30日），耐克大中华区业绩同比下降17%。 但耐克的问题又岂止大中华区。过去两年，耐克总部也是各种动荡。2024年10月，面对危机已有一段时 间的耐克召回了退休四年的贺雁峰（Elliott Hill）重新担任集团总裁兼CEO。此后，总部高层便开始大 规模重组，品牌、产品、营销、战略、人力资源等关键岗位纷纷换帅。 事实上，这个行业不止耐克一家产生了危机感。全球的体育鞋 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the company, Yilian Network, is currently managing its inventory health and is not negatively impacted by tariff fluctuations or policy changes in the U.S. market [1] - The company has stated that it will continue to monitor the market dynamics to respond flexibly to market feedback [1] - Investors have inquired about the company's solutions regarding tariffs and instability in the U.S. market for the year 2026 [1]

Core Insights - The stock market has performed well, with the S&P 500 index up about 16% this year, despite concerns over economic conditions and tariff policies [3][7] - A Federal Reserve study indicates that tariffs are likely to raise unemployment and slow GDP growth in the near term, which could lead to a significant market downturn [4][9] Economic Conditions - Consumer confidence is declining, and the U.S. unemployment rate has reached its highest level in years, indicating a weakening economy [3] - The stock market and the U.S. economy are not always aligned, as evidenced by the current strong stock values amidst deteriorating economic conditions [5] Market Valuation - The S&P 500 is trading at over 23 times forward earnings, marking one of its highest valuations in decades, which raises concerns about potential market corrections [5][7] - Overvaluation of stocks typically signals that the market may be overdue for a correction, especially in light of negative economic indicators [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda anticipates that the negative GDP growth is only a temporary phenomenon, with actual interest rates remaining very low [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan maintains its basic judgment that the Japanese economy is experiencing a moderate recovery [1] - There is an expectation that the minimum wage will increase by over 5% year-on-year in the fiscal year 2025, which is likely to drive broader corporate wage increases [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the Japanese economic outlook appears to be gradually diminishing [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - In the December meeting, the Bank of Japan will review and discuss domestic and international economic activities, price conditions, and market dynamics based on various data [1] - The necessity to adjust the easing measures in a timely manner is emphasized to achieve the price stability target, ensuring that adjustments are neither too late nor too early [1] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The transmission of wage increases to prices is ongoing, with moderate increases observed not only in food prices but also in goods and services [1] - There is a growing consensus that the impact of tariff policies on corporate profits will be limited [1]

Core Viewpoint - Minghui International (03828) reported a decline in revenue and gross profit for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, primarily due to decreased income from healthcare and hygiene products, influenced by U.S. tariff policies prompting clients to relocate production facilities from China to Cambodia [1] Financial Performance - The company's unaudited revenue for the nine months was approximately HKD 1.649 billion, a decrease of 2.3% compared to the same period last year [1] - Gross profit for the same period was approximately HKD 368 million, reflecting a decline of 12.4% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin decreased by 2.6 percentage points, attributed to the decline in gross margin from the travel supplies business [1] Operational Insights - The overall revenue decline was mainly due to disruptions in operations caused by clients' adjustments to U.S. tariff policies [1] - The decrease in revenue from healthcare and hygiene products was partially offset by growth in the operational supplies and equipment business [1] - The company faced ongoing manufacturing cost pressures, contributing to the decline in gross profit margin [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has experienced disruptions in its shipment schedule to the U.S. due to significant changes in U.S. tariff policies in Q2, but has successfully transitioned production to its Malaysian factory, mitigating the impact of these tariffs [1] Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - The company's shipment rhythm to the U.S. was affected by the substantial changes in U.S. tariff policies during Q2 [1] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on the company's business is gradually diminishing as production has shifted to the Malaysian factory [1] Group 2: Operational Adjustments - The Malaysian factory is in the early stages of production, which has had a certain degree of impact on the company's revenue [1] - The company has successfully transitioned its U.S. business to production and shipment from the Malaysian factory [1] Group 3: Market Diversification - The company is making steady progress in expanding its non-U.S. market presence, which is reducing its reliance on the U.S. market and major customers [1] - This diversification strategy further lessens the impact of changes in U.S. tariff policies on the company's operations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [7] Core Views - The core contradiction in the current crude oil market is the resonance mismatch between short - term demand concerns triggered by economic and trade frictions and the long - term fundamental situation of supply - demand surplus. The short - term shock amplifies the decline, but the fundamental situation is the core suppressing force [1] - In the short term, the contradiction focuses on "whether the economic and trade frictions can ease" and "the rhythm of the slowdown in the decline". In the long term, the core game lies in "the digestion speed of the supply surplus" and "the recovery strength of global demand" [1] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The core contradiction is the resonance mismatch between short - term demand concerns from economic and trade frictions and long - term supply - demand surplus fundamentals. Trump's tariff threat, reduction of Brent speculative net long positions, and EIA's warning of supply surplus led to a more than 5% plunge in WTI crude oil, breaking below $60 per barrel. OPEC+ increased production by 400,000 barrels per day in September, the US export was nearly 5 million barrels per day, and China's imports in September decreased by 1.2 million barrels per day month - on - month to the lowest level of the year [1] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - The market is expected to be oscillating weakly, and the recommended month - spread strategy is backwardation arbitrage [7] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Negative Information**: Geopolitical risk premium subsided as the cease - fire between Israel and Hamas took effect, reducing concerns about Middle East supply disruptions. Trump's tariff policy upgrade on October 10 triggered a sharp decline in crude oil prices. OPEC+ production increased by 400,000 barrels per day in September, and the restart of oil exports in the Iraqi Kurdish region is expected to increase production in October. US crude oil exports reached nearly 5 million barrels per day, and the increase in water - borne crude oil will boost visible inventory. Asian demand, especially China's, weakened, with China's imports in September dropping to 9.6 million barrels per day [8][9] 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - Monitor the progress of Red Sea shipping recovery, Trump's tariff policy developments, and the OPEC+ informal meeting on October 17 to see if production cuts or increases will occur [11] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Interpretation - The crude oil futures market has been weak recently. Trump's tariff threat and supply - demand imbalance due to OPEC+ production increase and US exports led to price declines. The market sentiment is bearish, with a significant reduction in Brent speculative net long positions [13] 3.2 Inner and Outer Disk Analysis - **Inner Disk**: The SC crude oil futures main contract 2511 closed at 466.2 yuan per barrel, down 3.71% for the week. The MACD indicator shows weak momentum, and the price has broken below multiple moving averages. The trading volume was 112,232 lots, and the open interest increased by 3,872 lots to 28,515 lots [15][16] - **Outer Disk**: On October 10, the WTI main contract settled at $58.9 per barrel, down 3.25% from the previous week, and the Brent main contract settled at $62.73 per barrel, down 2.79%. As of October 7, the Brent crude oil futures open interest decreased by 78,946 lots week - on - week, and the managed funds' net long positions decreased by 60,824 lots [17] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Month - Spread Tracking - The current Brent and WTI crude oil month - spreads maintain a slight backwardation structure, which is expected to deepen in the context of a weak fundamental situation and falling oil prices [25] 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - The spread between SC and Brent crude oil has recovered, with the outer disk falling more this week [29] 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - Recently, the crude oil cracking spread shows a clear differentiation of "strong diesel, weak gasoline". Diesel spreads are supported by winter demand, while gasoline spreads are pressured by weak demand. This differentiation is a result of energy transformation and geopolitical games [42] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - From September 27 to October 3, US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels per day, up 124,000 barrels per day week - on - week. From October 4 to 10, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 418, down 4 rigs week - on - week [65] 5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - From September 27 to October 3, US refinery crude oil input was 16.297 million barrels per day, up 129,000 barrels per day week - on - week, and the refinery utilization rate was 92.4%, up 1 percentage point. From October 3 to 9, the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in China was 62.24%, down 0.52 percentage points week - on - week, and that of major refineries was 82.26%, up 0.98 percentage points [67] 5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - As of October 3, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels week - on - week, strategic petroleum inventory increased by 285,000 barrels, and Cushing oil inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels [69] 5.4 Balance Sheet Tracking - EIA's September report predicts that global oil demand will increase by 740,000 barrels per day in 2025. Global oil supply reached a record 106.9 million barrels per day in August. Refinery throughput is expected to decline in October due to seasonal maintenance. Global oil inventory increased in July, and the benchmark crude oil price continued to fall in August [71][72][73]

Core Viewpoint - Hyundai Motor has revised its operating profit margin target for 2025 from 7-8% to 6-7% due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies on imported vehicles and parts [1] Group 1: Financial Targets - The company aims to achieve a 7-8% operating profit margin by 2027 and an 8-9% margin by 2030 [1] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The adjustment reflects the ongoing impact of a 25% tariff imposed by the U.S. on imported automobiles and components, significantly increasing costs for global automakers [1] - Hyundai is one of the major companies affected, facing substantial cost increases in the U.S. market [1] Group 3: Strategic Responses - In the short term, the company plans to address these pressures through price adjustments and supply chain optimization [1] - Hyundai intends to mitigate the impact of tariffs by expanding local production in North America, with plans to increase capacity at its electric vehicle plant in Georgia in the coming years [1]