大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 07 月 10 日 | | | | 航运日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 第一部分 | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | 日报 | | | | | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2508 | 2,022.5 | 10.0 | 0.50% | 34,566.0 | 36.10% | 30,945.0 | -1.29% | | EC2510 | 1,401.1 | 11.1 | 0.80% | 13,584.0 | 32.01% | 29,957.0 | 1.06% | | EC2512 | 1,556.4 | 2.7 | 0.17% | 1,644.0 | -21.15% | 6,032.0 | -1.08% | | EC2602 | 1,365.7 | 12.3 ...

鲍威尔最新讲话释放重磅信号。 当被问及7月降息是否为时过早时，鲍威尔表示："我真的不能说。这将取决于数据，我们将逐次会议进行讨 论。" 今晚，美联储主席鲍威尔在欧洲央行的年度论坛上表示，绝大多数美联储委员预计今年晚些时候会降息。不会 排除任何一次会议采取行动的可能性，这将取决于数据。他还确认，要不是因为特朗普政府的关税政策的话， 美联储现在已经降息了。 鲍威尔发表评论后，短期利率期货显示，美联储在7月降息的可能性约为25%，高于之前的不足20%。与此同 时，华尔街对美联储降息预期愈发乐观。高盛在最新发布的报告中预测，美联储将于今年9月重启降息，较先 前预测的12月提前了3个月。高盛预计美联储将在9月、10月和12月的会议上降息，每次降息25个基点。 市场层面，美股开盘后，三大指数震荡分化，道指走强。特斯拉一度暴跌超7%，随后跌幅有所收窄，消息面 上，美国总统特朗普与特斯拉CEO马斯克的矛盾重燃。 鲍威尔发声 北京时间7月1日晚间，美联储主席鲍威尔在欧洲央行的年度论坛上发表讲话，他表示，美国经济处于相当良好 的状态，劳动力市场稳固。只要美国经济保持坚挺，美联储谨慎的做法是等待。 鲍威尔重申，关税影响预计将在未来 ...

经济数据疲软：关税与不确定性双重夹击 美联储《褐皮书》的调查结果显示，自4月23日以来，美国经济活动整体呈现温和下滑态势。尽管所有 联储辖区均未报告经济衰退，但经济和政策不确定性的显著上升已导致家庭和企业在决策上更加谨慎。 招聘市场同样不容乐观，12个辖区中多数地区就业情况"变化不大"，其中7个辖区形容就业为"持平"。 尽管求职者人数增加，但企业招聘需求下降，工作时间和加班时间减少，甚至部分行业出现裁员计划。 通胀问题同样棘手。《褐皮书》指出，美国物价正"以温和速度上涨"，但企业普遍预计未来成本和价格 将以更快速度上升。尤其值得关注的是，有计划将关税相关成本转嫁给消费者的企业预计将在三个月内 实施涨价。然而，企业对物价上涨的预期存在显著分歧：部分企业选择通过降低利润率应对成本压力， 另一些则通过增加"临时费用或附加费"转嫁成本。这种分歧反映出企业对经济前景的极度不确定。 北京时间6月5日凌晨，美联储发布的最新一期《褐皮书》如同一颗重磅炸弹，再度引爆了市场对美国经 济前景及美联储政策路径的担忧。报告显示，近期美国经济活动略有下降，关税和高度不确定性正对经 济产生广泛影响，经济前景被形容为"略显悲观且不确定"。与 ...

据新华社，行业数据公司美国沃兹情报公司3日发布的数据显示，美国5月轻型汽车销量出现五年来 最大跌幅。 数据显示，美国5月轻型汽车销量为1565万辆，比4月修正后的1725万辆下降约160万辆，为2020 年4月以来最大降幅。美国3月轻型汽车销量为1783万辆。 美国政府对进口汽车加征25%关税的措施4月3日生效。分析人士认为，美国消费者3月、4月赶在价 格上涨前购买车辆，是导致5月销售惨淡的原因之一。 ...

| 因素 | 陛盾 | 逻辑观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1、国家统计局公布数据显示，4月份，我国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长3%。较3月份加快0.4个百分点，以浅备制造业、高技术制 | | 宏观&行业 | 中性 | 造业为代表的新动能行业利润增长较快,而纺织服装行业4月累计利润同比下滑 15.4%。 | | | 偏空 | 2、近日，美国联邦法院裁定暂停特朗普关税政策，而后特朗普表示将上诉，关税政策暂时恢复，由于关税措施反复变化、难以为棉 | | | | 纺织市场提供稳定的交易环境，业者暂保持谨慎观望心态。 | | | | 1、国际： 截至5月25日当周，美国棉花种植率为52%，前一周为40%，去年同期为57%，五年均值为56%；棉花现盛率为3%，上年同 | | | | 期为4%。五年均值为4%。美国土壤摘情受降雨继续好转利空美国棉布。巴西方面。2024/25年度巴西棉花产量预估为390.48万吨,同比 | | | | 增加5.5%,USDA的预估值更为乐观,高出10-15万吨,近期开始逐步收获。 | | 供应 | 偏空 | 2、国内：全疆棉苗开始逐步现蕾，新棉长势良好、三方调 ...

由于近期美国政府的关税政策反复无常，美国港口运营也持续受到波及。日前，业内人士表示，美国最 大、最繁忙集装箱港口洛杉矶港5月的货运量可能大幅减少。洛杉矶港执行董事吉恩.塞罗卡当地时间29 日表示，在传统的海运旺季即将到来之际，港口的业务相较以往却呈现疲软的态势。港口五月第一周和 第四周货运量已出现30%的降幅。他预计，5月份洛杉矶港的货运量同比有两位数百分比的下降。这也 意味着对港口的就业影响会显现，因为货船减少意味着减少卸货和运货工人需求。塞罗卡还表示，洛杉 矶港6月份有10艘预定到港的船舶已被取消。洛杉矶港是美国最繁忙的港口之一，是从中国进口货物的 第一大海上门户，其主要客户包括沃尔玛等大型零售商以及福特等主要汽车制造商的零部件供应商。根 据全美零售联合会此前发布的数据，2025年下半年，美国进口预计同比下降至少20%。(央视新闻) ...

随着美国关税政策导致企业削减进口订单，美国多个港口货运量明显下降。美国西北海港联盟的数据显 示，5月第一周，西雅图港和塔科马港的入境货运量较今年周平均水平下降了23%。如果情况持续，港 口的工作人员，从码头工人，到卡车司机，再到物流仓储人员等，可能面临包括失业在内的更加艰难的 处境。 (CCTV国际时讯) ...

金十数据5月26日讯，据韩国Mono公司调查显示，如果美国目前的关税政策继续下去，韩国出口商预计 今年对美国的出口将下降近5%。在销售额排名前1000位的150家出口企业中，对美国的出口预计2025年 将平均减少4.9%。按行业分类，电气和电子企业预计降幅最大，为8.3%，其次是汽车和汽车零部件 （7.9%）、石化和石油产品（7.2%），以及通用机械（6.4%）。相比之下，造船企业和制药企业预 计，尽管关税担忧持续存在，但对美国的出口将分别增长10%和1.6%。81.3%的受访企业认为，关税措 施将给两国企业带来负面影响。另有14.7%的受访企业表示，这将对韩国企业产生负面影响，但对美国 企业有利。 调查：韩国出口商预计今年对美出口将下降4.9% ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, the company reported a revenue growth of 16% year-over-year, reaching nearly $5 billion [7] - Gross margin expanded by 230 basis points to 57.9%, while operating margins improved by 200 basis points to 23.6% [7][36] - Earnings per share increased by 30% to $6.33 compared to the previous year [7][38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HOKA brand revenue increased by 24% to $2.2 billion, with wholesale revenue growing 24% and DTC revenue rising 23% [11][36] - UGG brand revenue grew by 13% to $2.5 billion, with wholesale revenue increasing 15% and DTC revenue rising 11% [24][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue for HOKA expanded by 39%, now representing 34% of global revenue, up from 30% last year [11] - UGG's international revenue increased by 20%, now accounting for 39% of global sales, up from 37% last year [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a balanced channel mix of 50% DTC and 50% wholesale, focusing on brand-led growth and expanding international presence [9][10] - HOKA is positioned as a leading performance brand with plans to enhance product innovation and expand into lifestyle and fitness categories [19][23] - UGG is focusing on increasing adoption among male consumers and developing year-round products to capture a broader market [26][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged uncertainty due to shifting U.S. trade policy but expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt [8] - The company expects fiscal year 2026 to face challenges, including potential tariff impacts of up to $150 million on cost of goods sold [39][41] - Despite these challenges, management remains optimistic about long-term growth prospects for both HOKA and UGG [49] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $567 million worth of shares during fiscal year 2025, reflecting strong cash flow and confidence in its strategic plan [38][47] - A new board chair, Cindy Davis, was announced, succeeding Mike Devine, who retired after 14 years of service [51] Q&A Session Summary Question: What factors contributed to the slowdown in HOKA U.S. DTC? - Management noted that the slowdown was due to unique factors in the U.S. market, including model changeovers and increased promotions, but expressed confidence in international performance [55][56] Question: Is mid-teens growth for HOKA still possible? - Management indicated that while they are not providing formal guidance, they remain optimistic about mid-teens growth based on strong international performance and brand awareness [60][64] Question: Can you elaborate on the impact of tariff costs? - The $150 million tariff cost is a gross estimate, and management is exploring pricing adjustments and cost-sharing strategies to mitigate the impact [75][76] Question: How will HOKA's growth be split between DTC and wholesale? - Management emphasized that the growth framework includes strategic expansion of wholesale distribution, which is expected to drive consumer engagement and brand awareness [81][82]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overseas risk appetite has decreased, and attention should be paid to the impact of economic data releases on market sentiment. There is still a need to be aware of the long - term economic decline risk under US tariff policies. The copper raw material supply remains in a tight pattern, with strong price support, but the price center is expected to move down due to reduced consumption intensity [1]. - The domestic commodity sentiment is marginally stable, while the overseas risk appetite has weakened. High tariff levels lead to concerns about long - term demand. The high processing fees of aluminum rods are conducive to further inventory reduction of aluminum ingots, with strong price support, but the seasonal weak consumption will limit the upward space of aluminum prices, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile [3]. - The inventory of recycled raw materials is limited, and the profit of recycled lead enterprises is under pressure, with the operating rate continuously declining. After the battery enterprises' holidays, the operating rate has returned to a relatively high level. In the medium term, the Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16300 - 17800, and the short - term lead price shows a strong upward trend [5]. - In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloys increased significantly. From a fundamental perspective, the port inventory of zinc concentrates continues to rise, and the processing fees of zinc concentrates increase again. The zinc ore surplus expectation remains unchanged. With the accumulation of zinc ingot inventory, the zinc price still has a certain downward risk in the medium term [7]. - The supply of tin is currently tight in the short term but is expected to loosen. The terminal orders in industries such as home appliances and electronics have not significantly increased, and the tin price center may move down under the drag of demand [8][9]. - The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the spot demand is weak. The inventory may return to the accumulation trend, and the nickel price maintains a bearish outlook [10]. - The supply and demand side of lithium carbonate lacks strong driving forces, and the futures price is in the cost - intensive area. If the demand does not weaken further, there is significant resistance to downward movement, and it is likely to fluctuate at the bottom [12]. - There are continuous disturbances in the ore and supply sides of alumina. The short - term impact of the mine shutdown in Guinea is large, and local policy uncertainty is high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [15]. - The nickel - iron market is in a game situation, and the high - carbon ferrochrome market is waiting for the June tender of steel mills. The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [17]. Summary by Metals Copper - The LME copper closed down 0.71% to $9487/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77770 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168825 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rose to 39.1%. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.5 tons to 4.1 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved. The import loss of domestic copper spot increased to over 400 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference narrowed slightly. The expected operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract today is 77000 - 78400 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9400 - 9600 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum closed down 0.22% to $2475/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20135 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.04 million hands to 51.6 million hands, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 tons to 6.0 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1.05 tons to 44.7 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 8.3 tons. The spot premium in the East China region remained unchanged. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract today is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2450 - 2500 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - The 3S price of lead rose by 13.5 to $1985/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16725 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 4.11 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 24.58 tons. The domestic social inventory increased to 5.82 tons. The medium - term expected operating range of the Shanghai lead index is 16300 - 17800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.76% to 22417 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose 62 to $2730.5/ton. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 22760 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.14 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 15.67 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 8.38 tons. In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloys increased significantly. The zinc price still has a downward risk in the medium term [7]. Tin - On May 21, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 267730 yuan/ton, up 1.13%. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 8070 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 15 tons to 2670 tons. The upstream tin concentrate price rose. The tin ore supply is expected to loosen, and the tin price center may move down. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and that of overseas LME tin is 30000 - 33000 dollars/ton [8][9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 123760 yuan/ton, up 0.18%, and the LME main contract closed at $15630/ton, up 0.64%. The price of nickel ore is stable or slightly decreased, the nickel - iron price is stable, and the price of intermediate products is high. The LME nickel inventory increased by 90 tons to 202098 tons. The nickel price maintains a bearish outlook. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract today is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 15000 - 16300 dollars/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 62,657 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2507 contract closed at 61,100 yuan, up 0.39%. The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The expected operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2507 contract today is 60,400 - 61,800 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - On May 21, 2025, the alumina index rose 3.55% to 3241 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions increased. The overseas Australian FOB price remained stable, and the import loss was 152 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1.68 tons to 17.35 tons. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [14][15]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12870 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the nickel - iron price decreased slightly. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 0.42%. The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [17].