中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海 北京报道 近日，普华永道发布了两份报告《中国品类管理实践研究：品类管理与自有品牌的战略升级之道》和 《2025全球消费者之声中国报告——新时代中国消费者：聚焦食品、健康与可持续发展》，深入剖析中 国消费市场的动态。 在这两份报告中，普华永道提出四个关键因素，将正面影响中国消费市场的未来。第一个因素是中高收 入群体的人口增长，刺激需求。根据经济学人智库的估算，年可支配收入超过25000美元的中国家庭在 2024年激增至6400万户，预计到2029年将几乎翻倍，为高端和奢侈品牌运营商带来庞大商机。普华永道 预计未来对高质量、差异化的食品及非食品产品和服务的需求将会增加。同时，到2029年，仍有33%的 家庭年收入低于10000美元，零售商亦迎来开发自有品牌的机遇，以提供负担得起且质量合理的产品。 第四个因素，金融市场预计人民币将在2026年走强。人民币走强，加上房地产市场回稳，将提振消费者 信心，刺激本地消费。 第二个因素是国际和本土龙头食品杂货零售商的快速扩张，显示消费者对中国市场充满信心。根据普华 永道的报告，这些龙头企业已经掌握了品类管理和自有品牌发展的重要性，为行业树立标杆， ...

China's equity market has been overshadowed by other dominant Asian emerging markets in the past few years. Chinese equities have declined by around 13% in the past fiveAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relat ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports is an optimistic outlook for the Chinese consumer market, driven by the expansion of the middle and high-income groups [1] - The first key factor positively impacting the Chinese consumer market is the increase in middle and high-income households, with an estimated 64 million households expected to have a disposable income exceeding $25,000 by 2024, nearly doubling by 2029 [1] - In 2024, there will be 26.8 million households (equivalent to 77 million people) with an annual income exceeding $35,000, presenting significant opportunities for high-end and luxury brand operators [1] Group 2 - The second key factor is the rapid expansion of international and domestic leading grocery retailers, indicating strong consumer confidence in the Chinese market [1] - The third key factor highlights that Chinese consumers surpass global counterparts in acceptance of health, sustainability, and international products, creating opportunities for new categories and products [1] - The fourth factor indicates that the financial market anticipates the Chinese yuan will strengthen by 2026, which, along with a stabilized real estate market, will boost consumer confidence and stimulate local consumption [2]

Core Insights - PwC's reports indicate an optimistic outlook for China's consumer market, driven by the expansion of the middle and high-income groups [1] - The reports highlight the need for retailers to enhance category management and develop private labels to drive growth amidst challenges [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The growth of the middle and high-income population is expected to stimulate demand for high-quality and differentiated products and services [2] - By 2024, households with disposable income exceeding $25,000 in China are projected to surge to 64 million, nearly doubling by 2029 [2] - China ranks second globally, with 26.8 million households (equivalent to 77 million people) expected to have an annual income exceeding $35,000 in 2024, presenting significant opportunities for high-end and luxury brands [2] Group 2: Retail Sector Challenges - Retailers are facing weak consumer sentiment and intense price competition, necessitating a shift from traditional operations to omnichannel strategies [1] - Many retailers are seeking to reduce reliance on shelf fees, which are charges levied on brands for specific store placements [1] - The retail industry must accelerate category management and private label development to drive growth in the Chinese market [1] Group 3: Key Influencing Factors - Rapid expansion of international and domestic leading supermarkets reflects consumer confidence in the Chinese market [2] - Chinese consumers are surpassing global counterparts in their acceptance of health, sustainability, and international products, creating opportunities for new categories and products [2] - The financial market anticipates a strengthening of the RMB by 2026, which, along with a stabilized real estate market, is expected to boost consumer confidence and stimulate local consumption [2] Group 4: Policy and Investment Opportunities - China is actively promoting domestic demand and attracting foreign direct investment through various new policies [2] - Recent initiatives include tax incentives for reinvestment by foreign investors, the upcoming full closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port, and tax benefits in the Greater Bay Area [2] - Companies are advised to strengthen tax internal controls to navigate challenges posed by new policies [2]

Core Insights - PwC's report highlights four key factors that will positively impact China's consumer market in the future [1] Group 1: Population and Income Growth - The growth of the middle and high-income population is expected to stimulate demand, with an estimated 64 million households in China having a disposable income exceeding $25,000 by 2024, nearly doubling by 2029 [1] - In 2024, 26.8 million households (equivalent to 77 million people) are projected to have an annual income exceeding $35,000, presenting significant opportunities for high-end and luxury brand operators [1] Group 2: Market Expansion - Rapid expansion of both international and domestic leading supermarkets indicates strong consumer confidence in the Chinese market [1] Group 3: Consumer Preferences - Chinese consumers are surpassing global counterparts in acceptance of health, sustainability, and international products, creating opportunities for new categories and products [1] Group 4: Financial Market Outlook - The financial market anticipates that the Chinese yuan will strengthen by 2026, which, along with a stabilized real estate market, is expected to boost consumer confidence and stimulate local consumption [1]

在汇丰中国研讨会期间，汇丰前海证券CEO陆天与香港法国工商总会主席Alain Li进行了一次交谈 。 虽然短期还存在压力，但中国消费市场依然足够庞大和多元。对于产品定位清晰的企业来说，机会依然 不少。要理解中国经济，得先看懂消费者。中国消费者的购买力是经济增长的重要引擎，也是企业增长 的主要来源。 从2020年开始，疫情、经济不确定性和楼市走弱，让很多消费者从"敢花钱"变成了"爱存钱"。不过这一 情况正在发生变化。麦肯锡的调研显示，消费者信心在回稳，尤其以1995至2010年出生的城市Z世代群 体为代表1。同时政府部门还不断有刺激消费的政策出台，股市表现也带来一定的财富效应和信心提 升。 年轻消费者正在带来结构性机会。95后虽然只占中国人口约20%，却贡献了约40%2的消费。到2035 年，这一群体的消费规模预计会增长约400%至16万亿元人民币3。相比上一代，他们更注重自我表达和 真实体验。作为 "互联网原住民" ，他们兴趣更广、圈层更多，愿意为情绪价值和身份认同买单。 因此，他们更偏爱体验型消费，比如旅行、演唱会；也会在IP周边、化妆品、珠宝上花钱取悦自己。同 时，他们也是奢侈品消费的主力。中国是全球高端 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong A-shares and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption 50 ETF (159268) both saw gains, with the ETF rising over 1% and attracting a net inflow of 6.4 million yuan for six consecutive days, totaling over 150 million yuan [1] - Notable stocks included Miniso, which surged over 18% post-earnings, Li Ning up over 7%, Anta Sports up over 3%, and Pop Mart up over 2% [1] Group 2: Company Earnings - Miniso reported a second-quarter revenue of 4.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, with adjusted operating profit rising 8.5% to 852 million yuan and an adjusted operating profit margin of 17.2%, exceeding company guidance [2] Group 3: Consumer Trends - McKinsey highlighted five surprising trends in the Chinese consumer market for the first half of 2025, indicating a shift in consumer sentiment despite weak confidence and ongoing pressures in the real estate market [5] - The report noted a steady recovery in core retail categories, with air travel surpassing 2019 levels and China's automotive exports becoming the largest globally, with an expected export volume of nearly 5.5 million vehicles in 2024, eight times that of 2019 [6] Group 4: Tourism and Capital Markets - The number of inbound tourists to China reached a record high, with over 35 million visitors in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [9] - The capital market's recovery in 2025 has been significant for consumer enterprises, with four of the top ten IPOs in Hong Kong coming from the consumption sector, indicating strong investor confidence in the long-term prospects of the Chinese consumer market [12] Group 5: Cultural and Product Trends - Pop Mart's Labubu character gained international popularity, with revenue from its monster series increasing by 726% in 2024, contributing significantly to the company's overall revenue [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a significant increase in savings, China's consumption remains robust, with total consumption reaching 24.5 trillion yuan and online consumption growing by 8.5% in the first half of the year [2][3] - The increase in household savings does not indicate a decline in consumer willingness; rather, savings are viewed as emergency funds, and the diverse consumption structure supports ongoing growth [2][5] - Policy initiatives, such as consumption stimulus measures and trade-in programs, have injected over 300 billion yuan into the market, further boosting consumption [3][5] Group 2 - China's internal demand market is substantial, positioning the country as one of the largest consumer markets globally, with both traditional and emerging sectors contributing to growth [5][11] - The luxury goods market in China is thriving, with brands like Burberry and COACH offering discounts to attract younger consumers, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s [7][9] - The contrast between China's vibrant consumption market and the sluggish growth in many foreign markets highlights the unique characteristics of Chinese consumer behavior, where savings and consumption complement rather than compete with each other [9][11]

Group 1 - China's consumer market has shown a stable performance in 2023, with retail sales reaching 12.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and a growth rate acceleration of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The robust performance of the consumer market has attracted foreign companies, particularly from Europe, who see significant opportunities driven by China's large market size, strong manufacturing investment appeal, and improving innovation capabilities [1] - The CEO of Philips noted that consumer confidence and spending are rising in China, indicating a positive outlook for economic recovery [3] Group 2 - The agricultural company Louis Dreyfus expressed optimism about the diverse demand factors and growth potential in China's consumer market, which presents numerous opportunities for multinational companies [3] - Despite global economic uncertainties, there is a belief that China's ongoing medical reforms and rapidly developing digital ecosystem will create new opportunities for sustainable business growth [3] - The president of Dassault Systèmes highlighted that the demand driven by digital transformation in China is providing new growth opportunities, with the company establishing innovation centers in multiple cities [3][4] Group 3 - The automotive industry is significantly represented among foreign manufacturing enterprises in China, with 12 out of 30 major foreign companies involved in the sector, particularly in the electric vehicle market [6] - Foreign automotive companies are increasing investments in China's new energy vehicle sector, reflecting the country's position at the forefront of innovation in various fields [6] - Investment sources for China are diversifying, with double-digit growth from countries like the UK, South Korea, the Netherlands, and Japan, alongside increasing investments from Belt and Road Initiative countries [6]

Group 1 - The Chinese consumer market is showing strong vitality, with retail and catering sales increasing by 6.3% year-on-year during the "May Day" holiday and a 4.6% increase in the first quarter, contributing 51.7% to economic growth [2][3] - New consumption policies are being implemented to further unleash market potential, attracting global businesses to explore opportunities in China [3][4] - The emergence of new consumer groups and business models, such as the "Z generation" and "silver-haired" consumers, is diversifying consumption demands [3][6] Group 2 - The combination of transit visa exemptions and departure tax refund policies is boosting tourism and shopping in China, creating more opportunities for overseas businesses [4][5] - Companies are adapting their products and marketing strategies to meet the evolving preferences of Chinese consumers, focusing on health and sustainability [5][6] - The upcoming China International Import Expo is seen as a significant platform for global businesses to showcase their products and understand market trends [7][9] Group 3 - The Chinese market is viewed as a "deterministic oasis" for investment amid global economic challenges, with many overseas businesses actively participating in industry exhibitions to expand their presence [5][9] - Companies are planning to leverage the popularity of the Chinese market to expand into Southeast Asia, capitalizing on the ripple effect of consumer trends [8][9] - There is a strong emphasis on integrating cultural elements into product design and marketing to resonate with Chinese consumers [7][8]