去年美国对冲基金业绩的冠军，发现资本管理公司（Discovery Capital Management）认为美联储今年绝不可能降息，同时美股面临短期回调的风险。 7月1日，发现资本管理公司的创始人兼投资组合经理Robert Citrone在媒体节目上发出警告 ，由于市场对美联储降息的预期与经济现实严重脱节，加上贸易摩 擦再起，标普500指数短期内或将面临回调。然而，他同时预测，受国内投资和消费提振，美国经济将在明年迎来"繁荣"，而真正的投资机遇可能正在地球的 另一端——拉丁美洲涌现 。 Citrone明确表示，市场普遍预期的年内两次降息"非常危险"，他认为美联储今年"绝无可能"降息。他指出，核心通胀数据依然顽固，预计将从目前的2.8%攀升 至年底的3.5%，这将使任何降息的理由都站不住脚。 这一判断与市场主流观点形成鲜明对比，也构成了他看空美股短期前景的核心逻辑。Citrone认为， 这种预期的错位，叠加与欧洲、日本等经济体之间"艰 难"的贸易谈判，将给市场带来动荡。他将其比作一个"迷你的四月"，暗示市场将重现此前的波动 。 尽管短期看法谨慎，Citrone却对美国经济的长期前景极为乐观。他认为当前的经济放缓 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - Discovery Capital Management's founder Robert Citrone warns that the market's expectation of two interest rate cuts this year is "very dangerous" and believes the Federal Reserve will not cut rates at all [1][3] - Citrone predicts that core inflation will rise from 2.8% to 3.5% by the end of the year, undermining any rationale for rate cuts [1][3] - He expresses concern over the disconnect between market expectations and economic realities, suggesting that the S&P 500 may face short-term corrections due to renewed trade tensions [1][4] Group 2: Economic Forecast - Despite short-term caution, Citrone is optimistic about the long-term prospects of the U.S. economy, expecting a "prosperity" driven by manufacturing return and consumer stimulus policies next year [2][5] - He believes the current economic slowdown is a "false signal" caused by policy uncertainty [2] Group 3: Trade Issues - Citrone identifies trade negotiations as another short-term risk factor, describing current tariff issues as "tricky" and "chaotic" [4] - He acknowledges that while strong trade policies may create structural changes, the process will not be smooth [4][5] Group 4: Global Capital Flows - Citrone notes a shift in global capital flows, with the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets declining, prompting investors to look towards overseas markets [6][7] - He highlights that the 11% decline in the dollar this year is not solely due to rate cut expectations but also because investors are hedging against their dollar holdings [7] Group 5: Investment Opportunities in Latin America - Citrone sees Latin America as a new value area, with markets appearing undervalued compared to U.S. assets [7] - He cites Argentina's significant policy shift as a case study, where a transition from leftist policies to sound economic management led to a 4400% increase in stock prices [7] - Citrone anticipates similar positive developments in other Latin American countries, particularly with upcoming elections potentially shifting political landscapes [7][8]