Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is set to release a backlog of important data, including employment and inflation indicators, which are expected to show weakness, potentially lowering U.S. Treasury yields and reigniting market expectations for interest rate cuts in early 2026, while providing a rebound opportunity for gold that has been pressured by rising real yields [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The upcoming data release is anticipated to indicate a cooling U.S. economy, which could lead to lower Treasury yields [1] - Market expectations are leaning towards weaker U.S. data, which may influence investment strategies [1] Group 2: Gold Market Outlook - Recent declines in gold prices appear to be more of a position adjustment rather than a trend reversal [1] - The outlook for gold remains positive, with investors closely monitoring U.S. real yields, a weakening dollar, and forthcoming economic data [1] - If the data suggests a slowdown in the U.S. economy, gold is expected to rebound in the following week [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. job market is showing concerning signs, with over a quarter of unemployed individuals having been out of work for more than six months, a record high since the pandemic began [1][3] - In August alone, over 1.9 million Americans fell into "long-term unemployment," nearly double the figure from early 2023, indicating a significant cooling of the economy [1][3] Group 1: Long-term Unemployment Trends - Long-term unemployment often leads to individuals exhausting their unemployment benefits and savings, resulting in a loss of confidence and potential withdrawal from the job market [3][5] - The current job market is characterized by fewer job openings and increased layoffs, with the number of unemployed surpassing job vacancies for the first time in four years [3][5] Group 2: Personal Impact of Long-term Unemployment - Personal stories highlight the struggles of long-term unemployed individuals, such as Steve Beal, who has sent over 300 applications without success, and Felicia Enriquez, who has been unemployed for 14 months and relies on food stamps [5][6] - Research indicates that half of those unemployed for over seven months may exit the labor market entirely, with prolonged unemployment leading to diminished skills and networking opportunities [5][6] Group 3: Declining Confidence in Job Market - Confidence in future employment is rapidly declining, with less than 45% of Americans believing they could find a job within three months if they were to lose their current position, the lowest since 2013 [8] - Historical data shows that a long-term unemployment rate exceeding 25% is rare, with only three instances in the past 75 years, including the current situation [8] Group 4: Economic Policy Response - Attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where a potential interest rate cut may be discussed to alleviate pressure on the job market [8]