Group 1 - The central bank of China adjusted the RMB to USD exchange rate to 7.0995, an increase of 26 points [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated support for a potential interest rate cut later this month due to signs of a cooling labor market [4] - Powell noted that the risks to employment have increased, suggesting that there is sufficient evidence to support a 25 basis point cut in borrowing costs [4] - Current indicators show low levels of layoffs and hiring, with a declining perception of job opportunities among households and hiring difficulties among businesses [4] Group 3 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is at 97.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 2.7% [5] - For December, the probability of maintaining the rate is 0.1%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut at 6.4% and a cumulative 50 basis point cut at 93.5% [5]

Core Points - The former U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Director, Erica McEntyre, publicly warned that the dismissal of the chief labor statistician is a "dangerous move" that could lead to severe economic consequences [1] - The U.S. Department of Labor reported significantly lower-than-expected non-farm employment data on August 1, with July's unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% and only 73,000 new jobs added, compared to the expected 110,000 [1] - The job additions for May and June were also drastically revised down from 144,000 and 147,000 to 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, indicating a notable cooling in the U.S. job market [1] - President Trump ordered McEntyre's dismissal just hours after the disappointing employment data release, accusing her of "manipulating employment data for political purposes" without providing any evidence [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. job market is showing concerning signs, with over a quarter of unemployed individuals having been out of work for more than six months, a record high since the pandemic began [1][3] - In August alone, over 1.9 million Americans fell into "long-term unemployment," nearly double the figure from early 2023, indicating a significant cooling of the economy [1][3] Group 1: Long-term Unemployment Trends - Long-term unemployment often leads to individuals exhausting their unemployment benefits and savings, resulting in a loss of confidence and potential withdrawal from the job market [3][5] - The current job market is characterized by fewer job openings and increased layoffs, with the number of unemployed surpassing job vacancies for the first time in four years [3][5] Group 2: Personal Impact of Long-term Unemployment - Personal stories highlight the struggles of long-term unemployed individuals, such as Steve Beal, who has sent over 300 applications without success, and Felicia Enriquez, who has been unemployed for 14 months and relies on food stamps [5][6] - Research indicates that half of those unemployed for over seven months may exit the labor market entirely, with prolonged unemployment leading to diminished skills and networking opportunities [5][6] Group 3: Declining Confidence in Job Market - Confidence in future employment is rapidly declining, with less than 45% of Americans believing they could find a job within three months if they were to lose their current position, the lowest since 2013 [8] - Historical data shows that a long-term unemployment rate exceeding 25% is rare, with only three instances in the past 75 years, including the current situation [8] Group 4: Economic Policy Response - Attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where a potential interest rate cut may be discussed to alleviate pressure on the job market [8]

Group 1: Economic Data and Federal Reserve Expectations - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% after seasonal adjustment, while core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [1] - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, exceeding both the previous value of 236,000 and the expected 235,000 [1] - The market has fully priced in three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, indicating a strong expectation for monetary easing [1][7] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Trends - Inflation data shows that CPI and core CPI growth rates align with expectations, suggesting limited impact from tariffs on overall prices, while certain goods like new and used cars and housing still exhibit price stickiness [2][3] - Despite stable overall inflation, specific categories such as clothing and energy have shown price increases, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [2] - The employment market is cooling, with non-farm payrolls only increasing by 22,000 in August and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [5][6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the CPI and jobless claims data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4%, the dollar index declined, and U.S. stocks reached new highs, reflecting investor concerns over employment data [9] - The potential for a "stagflation-like" scenario exists if inflation rises unexpectedly alongside a deteriorating job market, which could limit the Federal Reserve's policy options [8] - The performance of financial markets post-rate cuts will depend heavily on the U.S. economy's ability to achieve a soft landing; otherwise, significant market adjustments may occur [9]

Group 1 - The number of job vacancies in the U.S. decreased to 7.181 million at the end of July, marking a drop of 176,000 from the previous month, the lowest level in 10 months [1][2] - The hiring rate remained unchanged at 3.3%, the lowest level since 2013, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - The number of layoffs increased by 12,000 to 1.808 million, with the private sector layoff rate rising to 1.3%, up from a historical low of 1% a year ago [2] Group 2 - Consumer spending growth is expected to slow down to 1.3% in Q3 and 1.1% in Q4 due to rising prices and a slowing job market, compared to a 1.6% increase in Q2 [3] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show a job increase of 75,000, falling below the critical threshold of 100,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% [4] - Federal Reserve officials are divided on the pace of future monetary easing, with some suggesting a potential rate cut of 25 basis points in September [4][6] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs and ongoing uncertainties is affecting hiring plans, with many companies likely to slow down recruitment until they have clarity on costs [2][5] - The current policy interest rate is seen as consistent with a fully employed labor market, but inflation remains a concern, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [5] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve regarding employment and price stability will influence future policy decisions, with a focus on data-driven assessments [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, and two more times next year, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 3% to 3.25% from the current 4.25% to 4.5% [1] - As of the evening of the 13th, the U.S. interest rate futures market shows a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 7% probability for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The probability of a 50 basis point cut increased due to comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet, who suggested that a significant rate cut is feasible given recent weak employment data [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the non-farm payroll data for July was significantly weaker than market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% and only 73,000 new jobs added, below the expected 110,000 [1] - The job additions for May and June were also revised down significantly, indicating a noticeable cooling in the U.S. labor market [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, and two more times next year [1][4] - After these five rate cuts, the federal funds rate will be reduced to a range of 3% to 3.25%, down from the current level of 4.25% to 4.5% [4] - As of August 13, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 93%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 7% [4] Group 2 - The probability of a 50 basis point cut in September increased due to comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset, who advocates for significant rate cuts [4][5] - Recent employment data has shown a notable decline, with July's non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000 [4] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, indicating a cooling labor market [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates a cooling labor market in the U.S., as evidenced by rising unemployment claims, which supports expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2][4] - As of the week ending July 26, the number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits increased by 38,000 to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating a weakening labor market [2][4] - Despite the increase in unemployment claims, the initial claims for unemployment benefits remain relatively low, suggesting that while companies are reducing hiring, they are not aggressively laying off existing employees [4][8] Group 2 - The recent non-farm payroll report showed a significant slowdown in U.S. employment, raising concerns among investors and economists about further deterioration in the labor market [8] - Companies are hesitant to hire new employees but are also not rushing to lay off current staff, reflecting uncertainty in the economic environment influenced by policies such as tariffs [7][8] - Some large companies, including Merck and Intel, have begun layoffs, and Stanford University plans to cut over 300 jobs due to federal funding reductions [8]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden cooling of the U.S. job market is prompting speculation about whether the Federal Reserve will repeat its previous aggressive rate cuts in response to weak employment data [2][7][10] Group 1: Employment Data - The latest non-farm payroll data for July shows a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with only 73,000 new jobs added, far below market expectations [4] - The private sector added only 3,000 jobs in June and 83,000 in July, while the manufacturing sector has seen job losses for three consecutive months, averaging a reduction of 13,000 jobs per month [4][6] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.117% to 4.248%, with a decrease of 260,000 in the number of employed individuals according to household surveys [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - The unexpected weak employment report has led to increased speculation about the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September rising significantly [7][8] - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged from below 40% to nearly 90%, with a high likelihood of a 25 basis point reduction [7][8] Group 3: Economic Context - Unlike last year, the current economic challenges include inflation concerns due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [10] - Analysts believe that the risk of sustained inflation is low in the context of weak demand and a soft labor market, which may influence the Fed's future rate decisions [10]

Group 1 - The report highlights the allocation value of equity assets based on the "see-saw effect" between stocks, bonds, and commodities, suggesting a favorable outlook for equity investments [5][7] - Global stock markets mostly declined in the week ending August 1, 2025, while major commodity futures saw mixed results, with oil and gold prices rising, and copper and aluminum prices falling [5][6] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added, which was below expectations, raising concerns about the labor market [9][10] Group 2 - In the domestic equity market, growth stocks outperformed, with an average daily trading volume of 1.787 trillion yuan, while 6 sectors rose and 25 sectors fell [6][18] - The report notes that the recent volatility in commodity prices has not been mirrored in stock prices, indicating a potential divergence in market behavior [7] - The U.S. employment data revealed a concerning trend, with revisions showing a cumulative reduction of 253,000 jobs in May and June, leading to increased market skepticism regarding the reliability of U.S. economic data [11][12] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of the U.S. employment data on market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in September following the disappointing job numbers [15][16] - The report also mentions the restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, 2025, which may affect bond market dynamics [17] - The analysis indicates that the service sector drove job growth in July, while the production sector remained weak, reflecting broader economic challenges [12][13]