Core Viewpoint - The sudden cooling of the U.S. job market is prompting speculation about whether the Federal Reserve will repeat its previous aggressive rate cuts in response to weak employment data [2][7][10] Group 1: Employment Data - The latest non-farm payroll data for July shows a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with only 73,000 new jobs added, far below market expectations [4] - The private sector added only 3,000 jobs in June and 83,000 in July, while the manufacturing sector has seen job losses for three consecutive months, averaging a reduction of 13,000 jobs per month [4][6] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.117% to 4.248%, with a decrease of 260,000 in the number of employed individuals according to household surveys [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - The unexpected weak employment report has led to increased speculation about the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September rising significantly [7][8] - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged from below 40% to nearly 90%, with a high likelihood of a 25 basis point reduction [7][8] Group 3: Economic Context - Unlike last year, the current economic challenges include inflation concerns due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [10] - Analysts believe that the risk of sustained inflation is low in the context of weak demand and a soft labor market, which may influence the Fed's future rate decisions [10]

Group 1 - The report highlights the allocation value of equity assets based on the "see-saw effect" between stocks, bonds, and commodities, suggesting a favorable outlook for equity investments [5][7] - Global stock markets mostly declined in the week ending August 1, 2025, while major commodity futures saw mixed results, with oil and gold prices rising, and copper and aluminum prices falling [5][6] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added, which was below expectations, raising concerns about the labor market [9][10] Group 2 - In the domestic equity market, growth stocks outperformed, with an average daily trading volume of 1.787 trillion yuan, while 6 sectors rose and 25 sectors fell [6][18] - The report notes that the recent volatility in commodity prices has not been mirrored in stock prices, indicating a potential divergence in market behavior [7] - The U.S. employment data revealed a concerning trend, with revisions showing a cumulative reduction of 253,000 jobs in May and June, leading to increased market skepticism regarding the reliability of U.S. economic data [11][12] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of the U.S. employment data on market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in September following the disappointing job numbers [15][16] - The report also mentions the restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, 2025, which may affect bond market dynamics [17] - The analysis indicates that the service sector drove job growth in July, while the production sector remained weak, reflecting broader economic challenges [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the recent developments regarding U.S. tariffs and employment data, indicating a potential impact on the economy and market sentiment. Group 1: Tariff Developments - U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer stated that President Trump has finalized a new round of tariffs on multiple countries, which will not be adjusted during current negotiations [2][3] - Specific tariffs include 35% on goods imported from Canada, 50% on Brazil, 25% on India, and 39% on Switzerland [2][3] Group 2: Employment Data Concerns - President Trump accused former Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erica McEntyre of artificially inflating employment data before the election, claiming it resulted in a "historic high" that was later revised down by nearly 1 million jobs [4] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase in the unemployment rate for July, with non-farm payrolls underperforming market expectations, indicating a cooling job market [4][5] - The downward revision of employment figures for May and June has led to significant dissatisfaction within the Trump administration, resulting in McEntyre's dismissal [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with rising unemployment and disappointing job growth, leading to significant market reactions [1] Employment Data - In July, the U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [1] - The number of non-farm jobs added in May and June was significantly revised downward, indicating a cooling labor market [1] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the U.S. stock market and the dollar index experienced substantial declines [1] - The dollar index fell by over 1%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropped by more than 12 basis points [1] - All three major U.S. stock indices fell by over 1% in early trading [1] Federal Reserve Expectations - Market concerns about the U.S. economy and employment have intensified, leading to increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September monetary policy meeting rose sharply from 37.7% to 75.5% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with expectations for June's non-farm payrolls to fall below previous months, reflecting the impact of policy uncertainty on economic prospects [1][2][10] - Predictions for June's non-farm payrolls suggest an increase of only 10.6 thousand jobs, down from 139 thousand in May, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [1][2] - Analysts from major financial institutions like UBS, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs anticipate that the upcoming non-farm data will be considerably weaker than expected, with Goldman predicting only 85 thousand new jobs [2][3] Group 2 - The ADP employment report for June showed a surprising decline of 33 thousand jobs, marking the largest drop since March 2023, which raises concerns about the overall employment trend [5][14] - The employment growth breadth has significantly decreased, with only three sectors contributing to job gains in May, and the employment diffusion index dropping to 54.4% [5][6] - Structural pressures in the labor market are becoming critical indicators for the Federal Reserve's assessment of economic health, with expectations that weak employment data could trigger a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy [10][11] Group 3 - Market reactions to the upcoming non-farm payroll data are expected to be significant, with potential volatility in the dollar and commodities depending on whether the data meets or falls short of expectations [11][14] - Analysts predict that if the non-farm payrolls come in below 85 thousand, the S&P 500 index could see declines of 2-3%, while numbers within the expected range could lead to modest gains [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for May is expected to show a further cooling in the labor market, with predictions of new job additions dropping from 177,000 in April to around 130,000 [1][2][4] - Analysts suggest that the impact of tariffs is becoming evident, particularly in the leisure, hospitality, trade, and transportation sectors, which are expected to see significant job declines [2][4] - The ADP employment report for May showed only a 37,000 increase in jobs, the lowest since March 2023, indicating a potential underperformance in the non-farm payroll data [3][4] Group 2 - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain stable at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month [1][2] - Economic indicators suggest a mixed outlook, with some data showing resilience in the labor market, such as a slight increase in job openings and a decrease in layoffs [3][4] - The ISM services PMI dropped to 49.9, indicating a contraction in service sector activity, which could further complicate the economic outlook and influence Federal Reserve policy [4][5] Group 3 - Market reactions to the non-farm payroll data are expected to be significant, with potential impacts on the S&P 500 index depending on the job numbers reported [7][8] - If job additions fall below 50,000, the S&P 500 could see a decline of up to 1.5%, while numbers meeting or exceeding expectations could stabilize or even boost market sentiment [8]