Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the imbalance in the U.S. fiscal structure exacerbated by the Trump administration's policies, highlighting the negative impacts on both the U.S. and global economies [1][2][3]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In FY2025, U.S. federal revenue is projected at $5.2 trillion, while expenditures will reach $7.01 trillion, resulting in a budget deficit of approximately $1.8 trillion, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits exceeding $1 trillion [2]. - Personal income tax remains the primary source of revenue at $2.66 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 10%. Tariff revenues have surged significantly, indicating a shift towards reliance on tariffs rather than personal income taxes [2]. - Major expenditures are concentrated in mandatory spending areas such as social security, Medicare, and Medicaid, with interest payments on debt surpassing $1 trillion [2]. Economic and Trade Impacts - The adjustment in fiscal policy is causing severe macroeconomic and consumer rights losses in the U.S. High tariffs are increasing costs for importers, contributing to inflationary pressures and potentially harming the international competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing [3]. - The reliance on tariffs to cover fiscal shortfalls is leading to efficiency losses, negatively affecting the majority of American residents, with the overall economic cost of tariff policies likely exceeding fiscal benefits [3]. - The U.S. education department's budget is set to drastically reduce from $268 billion in FY2024 to $34 billion in FY2025, significantly impacting public schools and vulnerable groups [3]. Global Supply Chain and Trade Dynamics - The "Great America Act," signed by Trump, is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade, leading to significant changes in fiscal structure and global supply chain dynamics [4]. - The trend towards regionalization and localization in global supply chains is being reinforced by U.S. policies, which may increase business adjustment costs and fragment global trade [4]. U.S.-China Economic Relations - The sustainability of U.S. debt is becoming increasingly problematic, with interest payments projected to account for about 3.4% of GDP in FY2025, while actual GDP growth remains around 2%, indicating difficulties in servicing debt [5]. - If the U.S. fiscal situation does not improve, the risk of debt default could threaten the safety of Chinese-held U.S. dollar assets [6]. - Tariff increases are raising costs for Chinese goods entering the U.S. market, leading to a decline in bilateral trade, with Chinese exports to the U.S. down 17% and imports down 12% in the first ten months of 2025 [6]. Strategic Responses - To mitigate negative impacts, strategies should include maintaining global supply chain stability and engaging in tax competition, while also enhancing domestic production capabilities and exploring regional cooperation [7][8]. - Building an open economy driven by domestic demand is essential, with a focus on government investment in future industries and strategic sectors, as well as enhancing the role of the RMB in international trade [8]. - Improving fiscal management and preventing financial risks through tax system reforms and optimizing foreign exchange reserves are critical for ensuring fiscal sustainability [8].

綦鲁明（中国国际经济交流中心） 在特朗普政府对外采取加征关税政策、对内实施激进债务扩张策略的推动下，美国财政收支面临新的不 平衡，给美国自身及全球经济带来诸多不良影响。我们应采取积极有效的措施，予以化解和应对。 美国财政收支结构失衡诱因仍在持续积累 根据美国财政部和国会预算办公室（CBO）的数据，2025财年（2024年10月~2025年9月）联邦财政收 入5.2万亿美元，支出7.01万亿美元，预算赤字约1.8万亿美元。这是美国连续第六年赤字超1万亿美元。 从收入情况看，个人所得税2.66万亿美元，同比增长10%，仍保持美国财政收入主要来源的地位。其他 收入来源中，关税收入暴涨，增幅远大于其他项目，显示特朗普政府欲把财政收入转向更多依靠关税， 减少对个人所得税等项目的依赖。 从支出情况看，支出主要发生在社会保障福利、医疗保险和医疗补助3项强制性支出项目上。其他支出 较多的项目是债务利息、国防军费开支，其中债务利息支出突破万亿美元。 总体看，当前美国提高财政收入渠道仍然缺乏。关税收入虽有较大规模增长，但远不能覆盖其债务利息 支出，对缓解庞大债务压力的作用更是微乎其微。从中长期看，加征关税还会导致美国进口量下降， ...