4月2日，美国政府宣布对包括中国商品在内的多数贸易伙伴征收34%的对等关税，针对船舶、物流和造船领域，直接违反世界贸易组织规则，也破坏中美海 运协定中的互惠条款。 这项政策导致双边贸易成本上升超过30%，被视为单边主义典型，旨在重塑全球供应链，推动制造业回流美国本土，同时在印太地区强化经济围堵。 中美经贸关系在2025年上半年陷入新一轮拉锯。 中国迅速采取对等行动。4月10日，国务院关税税则委员会宣布对原产于美国的进口商品加征相同比例关税，以维护正当权益。 同时，商务部与海关总署联合发布公告，对钐、钆、铽、镝、镥、钪、钇等七类中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制。这些物项具有军民两用特性，管制措施旨 在保障国家安全并履行国际防扩散责任。 全球背景下，印太地缘博弈加剧，美国推进"印太经济框架"拉拢盟友，形成对华包围网。中国则通过"一带一路"深化与东盟、拉美和非洲的经贸合作，贸易 额同比增长15%，出口占比升至全球25%，有效分散对美依赖。 5月12日，中美在瑞士日内瓦举行高层经贸会谈，双方同意90天内逐步降低关税，并暂停部分非关税反制措施。中国据此向通用、福特和斯泰兰蒂斯三家美 国汽车企业发放稀土临时出口许可，体现对话 ...

图片来源：视觉中国 最近一次在达拉斯-沃斯堡（DFW）机场的行政酒廊，我注意到一个现象：去往蒙特雷（Monterrey）的登机口异常热闹，挤满了讲着英语、德 语和中文的商务人士。 邻座一位供应链经理正兴奋地讨论着蒙特雷的"超级工厂"机会。这不禁让人发问：为什么是蒙特雷？ 这印证了我们内部物流和客户的数据：墨西哥北部的工业城市蒙特雷（Monterrey），正在成为北美供应链版图中最热的节点。它是墨西哥东 北部新莱昂州的首府，距墨西哥城约900公里，靠近美国德克萨斯州边境（距拉雷多市仅两个半小时车程）。 从宏观上看，这背后是全球供应链从"效率优先"转向"韧性优先"的必然结果。企业不再将所有制造环节押注于单一国家，而是转向"本地生 产、本地供应"的区域化布局。 从蒙特雷自身看，也有天时、地利、人和多方面的因素。而蒙特雷的崛起，并非要取代"中国制造"，而是作为"中国Plus"战略的全球化新路 径，正在扮演"北美东莞"的角色。 为什么是蒙特雷？蒙特雷成为"北美新东莞"的背后，是"近岸外包"的天时与地利。 地缘政治和疫情后供应链重塑带来的"天时"，是蒙特雷崛起的首要因素。 在家电领域，中国海信（Hisense）2023年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from招商香港 indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing marginal benefits, with significant performance in the AI and non-ferrous metal sectors, driven by technological upgrades and global digitalization trends [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The AI industry is showing strong growth momentum due to technological upgrades and the global digitalization trend [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is benefiting from global supply chain restructuring and demand from the new energy sector, presenting structural opportunities [1] - There is a continued deepening of industry differentiation, with resilience observed in the service sectors such as healthcare and accommodation, while cyclical industries like manufacturing are showing signs of contraction [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Overall, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to reach an upward turning point driven by the dual themes of AI and non-ferrous metals [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF (159712) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index (930931), which consists of 50 leading companies in the Hong Kong market, selected based on market capitalization and liquidity [1] - The index encompasses both emerging sectors like new consumption and fintech, as well as traditional economic sectors, reflecting the overall performance of representative quality listed companies in the Hong Kong market [1]

Core Insights - The US and India are nearing a significant bilateral trade agreement, aiming to reduce tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 15%-16%, which is a major step towards achieving a $500 billion trade target between the two nations [1][4] - This trade breakthrough is expected to reshape global supply chains and has implications for the trade dynamics involving China, the US, and India [1][6] Trade Agreement Details - The agreement includes substantial tariff reductions, with the US eliminating a 25% punitive tariff on Russian oil imports from India and reducing overall tariffs to the 15%-16% range, impacting sectors like textiles, gems, leather, and machinery [4] - India will gradually decrease its imports of Russian oil and ease restrictions on non-GMO corn and soybean meal imports from the US, opening up a market worth billions [4] Economic Implications - The trade deal is seen as a dual negotiation of political will and market dynamics, with the US benefiting from expanded energy and agricultural export channels while enhancing its economic influence in India [4] - The agreement is also viewed as a strategy for the US to create a supply chain backup to China, leveraging India's cheaper labor [4][5] Challenges for India - While the tariff reductions may boost Indian exports, the increased import of US agricultural products could disrupt local agriculture, and the reduction of Russian oil imports may raise domestic energy costs [5] - India's manufacturing sector remains heavily reliant on Chinese imports, making a quick transition away from China challenging [5] Impact on China - The US-India trade agreement poses three direct pressures on China: potential loss of market share in labor-intensive products, tighter technology restrictions in semiconductor and critical mineral sectors, and intensified competition for global resource pricing [6] - However, these external pressures may drive Chinese companies to enhance technology development and market diversification, reducing reliance on single markets [6] Textile Industry Focus - Indian textile companies may gain a competitive edge against Chinese exports due to lower tariffs and labor costs, prompting the need for Chinese textile firms to innovate and enhance their high-end product offerings [9] - The ongoing global supply chain adjustments highlight the complexity of "decoupling" from established trade relationships, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a robust industrial chain and technological innovation in China [9]

Core Insights - Maersk has officially launched its largest and most advanced integrated logistics flagship warehouse in the Lingang area of Shanghai, marking a significant shift from a "port-to-port" to an "end-to-end" service strategy with an investment exceeding 1 billion yuan [1][2] Group 1: Strategic Importance - The flagship warehouse is strategically located near the Yangshan Deep Water Port, which is crucial for both exports and imports, allowing customers to streamline their logistics processes [2] - The facility benefits from policy advantages as it is situated within the Yangshan Special Comprehensive Bonded Zone, enabling simplified regulatory support and innovative customs management [2][3] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The new logistics center allows for the simultaneous storage of bonded and non-bonded goods, facilitating quicker customs processes and reducing logistics costs significantly [2] - Companies can now manage their inventory more flexibly, as they do not need to pre-stock goods, enhancing supply chain resilience [2] Group 3: Growth Potential - The flagship warehouse is envisioned to become a hub for both import and export distribution, as well as a center for cross-border e-commerce fulfillment, leveraging Maersk's "Twin Stars" network for global distribution [3] - Shanghai Port's container throughput has reached record levels, with over 5.02 million TEUs in a single month, supported by the operational alliance between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd [4] Group 4: Industry Transformation - The facility is positioned as a benchmark for the green, low-carbon, and intelligent transformation of the global shipping industry, showcasing the latest smart technologies and carbon-neutral initiatives [6] - Maersk's investment reflects its long-term confidence in the Chinese market, which has become one of its largest globally, despite changes in the global trade landscape [6]

在全球经济的舞台上，一场暗流涌动的贸易博弈正在上演。美国，为了维护其摇摇欲坠的主导地位，正试图通过一系列手段，对准中国快速崛起的工业领 域，尤其是在新能源产业的赛道上，一场没有硝烟的战争已经打响。 这场博弈的开端，要追溯到2024年。从那一年起，美国的意图愈发明显：单方面挥舞关税大棒，同时积极游说欧洲各国，试图构建一个对华集体施压的阵 营。这种转变，源于美国对自身制造业衰落的深深担忧，尤其是在电动汽车、锂电池和太阳能电池等新兴产业领域，中国产品的强大竞争力，让西方国家如 芒在背。 2024年5月，美国率先出招，宣布对来自中国的电动汽车征收高达100%的惩罚性关税，锂电池和太阳能电池的关税也分别高达25%和50%。这些措施，被外 界解读为美国政府直接保护本土产业的行动。紧随其后，欧盟也在2024年10月正式宣布，对中国电动汽车征收17%至45%的额外关税，不同制造商面临的税 率有所差异。例如，某些中国品牌可能只需承担17%的税率，而另一些则可能高达35.3%。这种协调一致的行动，标志着西方国家在贸易政策上的某种趋 同，表面上是为了应对所谓的"中国产能过剩"，但实质上却是为了限制中国工业出口的增长空间。 这反映出 ...

Core Insights - Over 70 A-share listed companies in China have disclosed significant contracts or strategic cooperation agreements since October, indicating a broad industry impact, particularly in machinery and power equipment sectors [1][2] - The recent surge in orders is attributed to a combination of policy windows, global inventory adjustments, and technological iterations, rather than mere seasonal fluctuations [1][2] - New orders are increasingly focused on technology cooperation and supply chain collaboration, enhancing profitability and customer loyalty for related companies [1] Industry Developments - Major contracts include a 34.15 billion yuan offshore wind power project led by China Huadian Corporation, and significant contracts in energy storage and high-end equipment manufacturing, aligning with national investment plans [2] - The high-end manufacturing sector is witnessing a rise in orders related to AI computing power, energy storage, and advanced photovoltaic technologies, reflecting growing enthusiasm from downstream customers for new technologies [3] Global Expansion - Chinese companies are shifting from "product export" to "technology export," with notable contracts signed in Saudi Arabia and Peru, totaling approximately 195.54 billion yuan and 117.19 billion yuan respectively [4] - This transition signifies an upgrade in the role of Chinese enterprises within the global supply chain, with some companies achieving a leap in capabilities abroad [5]

Core Insights - Thailand is emerging as a new hub for Chinese home appliance manufacturers, driven by structural adjustments in global supply chains and the need for cost optimization and market restructuring [1][2][4]. Group 1: Major Developments - Chinese home appliance giants such as Haier, Hisense, and Oma are establishing significant production bases in Thailand, competing with Japanese and Korean brands [1][2]. - Haier's air conditioning industrial park in Chonburi, Thailand, has a planned annual capacity of 6 million units and is the largest air conditioning manufacturing base for Chinese brands in Southeast Asia [1]. - Hisense's HHA smart manufacturing industrial park in Thailand aims for an annual production capacity of 12 million units by 2030, with an expected annual output value exceeding 100 billion Thai Baht [2]. Group 2: Advantages of Thailand - Thailand's geographical location offers strategic advantages, being centrally located in Southeast Asia and connected to major trade routes, including the deep-water port of Laem Chabang [5]. - The cost advantage in Thailand includes lower labor costs, with the minimum monthly wage being approximately 77% of that in China, alongside a skilled workforce [6]. - Tax incentives, such as a 5% low tax rate for high-end manufacturing, further enhance Thailand's attractiveness for foreign investment [6]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The success of the "Thailand model" is evident not only in the home appliance sector but also in the automotive industry, with Chinese electric vehicle exports to Thailand increasing significantly [7][8]. - The evolution of Chinese home appliance companies is marked by a shift from merely exporting products to building comprehensive capabilities, including R&D and supply chain management [10][13]. - Localized product development has led to increased market share for Chinese brands in Thailand, with Haier's market share in air conditioning rising from 13.1% in 2018 to 21% in 2023 [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing structural changes in global supply chains are prompting Chinese companies to seek production bases in third countries like Thailand to mitigate trade barriers and tariffs [11][15]. - The transition from product output to capability output signifies a new phase in China's manufacturing narrative, with a focus on integrating local market needs into product development [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the bulk supply chain industry [12] Core Viewpoints - The bulk supply chain industry is at a dual bottom of "commodity prices" and "corporate profits," with a cyclical turning point approaching. Historical data shows a positive correlation between the profits of bulk supply chain companies and PPI, indicating that profits tend to rise in inflationary environments. Since July 2025, the "anti-involution" policy has been implemented, driving improvements in PPI growth rates [2][6][28] - Leading companies in the sector, such as Xiamen Xiangyu, Wuchan Zhongda, and Jianfa Co., have actively adjusted their business strategies and strengthened risk management, with their supply chain business profits turning positive year-on-year in Q3. The combination of liquidity easing and global supply chain restructuring, along with the steady advancement of domestic policies, suggests that the cyclical turning point for certain bulk commodities is gradually approaching, with clearer signals of profit improvement in the sector [2][6][42] Summary by Sections Bulk Supply Chain - The bulk supply chain industry is driven by capital, where the scale of business is determined by the amount of capital and turnover efficiency significantly impacts profitability. Macro demand is a crucial variable affecting trade turnover demand. The industry is currently at a dual bottom of "commodity prices" and "corporate profits," with a cyclical turning point approaching. The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy has led to a rebound in commodity prices, with indices for metals, energy, and agricultural products showing year-on-year increases of 4.5%, 2.5%, and 2.1% respectively in Q3 2025 [6][28][34] - Leading companies are accelerating their globalization efforts and integrating resources across the entire supply chain to enhance market share both domestically and internationally. Companies like Xiamen Xiangyu and Xiamen Guomao are maintaining favorable dividend policies, providing a safety net for investors [6][34][42] Transportation Chain - Domestic passenger traffic continues to grow, with a 5% year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume and a 19% increase in international passenger volume as of November 14. The average domestic passenger load factor has improved by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the international load factor has increased by 4.8 percentage points [7][43][48] - The report highlights that the supply-demand relationship in the domestic market continues to improve, with oil prices rising by 1.0% year-on-year. The outlook for the industry suggests that revenue is expected to improve marginally, driven by tightening supply and significant cost improvements [7][48] Shipping - The oil shipping sector remains buoyant, with the average VLCC-TCE rate rising by 26.2% to $120,000 per day. The overall tight capacity and OPEC+ production increases are expected to sustain the positive outlook for oil shipping. Conversely, the container shipping sector has seen a decline, with the SCFI index dropping by 2.9% to 1,451 points [8][13] - The report recommends companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy for investment, given the favorable conditions in the oil shipping market [8][42] Logistics - During the 2025 "Double Eleven" shopping festival, the average daily express delivery volume reached 634 million packages, a 9% year-on-year increase. The air freight price index has shown a slight increase as the cross-border e-commerce peak season approaches [9][14] - The report suggests focusing on companies like SF Holding, which is entering a phase of absolute return, and Xiamen Xiangyu, which is expected to benefit from improved export expectations and strong dividend capabilities [9][42]

对于宝马集团的三季度财报，董事会成员瓦尔特·默特尔表示，美国加征关税已对公司业绩造成明显影 响，第三季度宝马汽车业务息税前利润率下降了1.75个百分点，预计全年将总共降低约1.5个百分点。默 特尔同时指出，关税因素也将拖累现金流表现，集团全年自由现金流预期从原先的逾50亿欧元下调至逾 25亿欧元。 新华财经柏林11月9日电（记者李函林）在近几周穿梭于德国柏林、埃兰根和慕尼黑的多场财报发布会 现场，"关税"无疑成为最常被提起的高频词。无论是汽车制造商还是工业技术巨头，高管在解读业绩时 都不可避免地谈到美国加征关税带来的压力与影响。 7月27日，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩与美国总统特朗普达成协议，美国自8月起对大多数欧盟产品征收 15%的关税。如今百日已过，德国舆论普遍批评这一协议，认为欧洲在谈判中让步过大，而德国作为欧 盟出口大国首当其冲。关税的后果，正逐步在企业财报中显现出来。 "在过去一年中，贸易关税对我们造成了显著影响。仅在2025财年，关税就使集团利润减少约4亿欧元。 这是一个相当大的数额……我想再次强调，4亿欧元的关税负担绝非小事。"11月5日，在这家全球顶尖 医疗设备制造商的财报发布会上，西门子医疗首席 ...