美国服务业活动在12月以一年多来最快的速度扩张，得益于需求稳健增长以及招聘回暖。 供应管理协会（ISM）周三表示，其服务业指数上升1.8点至54.4，为2024年10月以来的最高水平。该指数高于50意味着占美国经济最大比重的服务业处于扩 张状态。市场对本次数据的预期为52.2，12月读数高于媒体对经济学家调查中的所有预测。 新订单增幅创下自2024年9月以来的最大水平。 衡量商业活动的指标（与ISM制造业产出指标相对应）升至一年高点。 出口订单以一年多来最快的速度增长。 需求回暖推动服务业就业出现自2月以来最为健康的增长。美国政府将于周五公布的月度就业报告预计显示，12月非农就业人数温和增长，失业率较前 一个月小幅下降。 ISM服务业及材料支付价格指数显示，价格上涨速度降至九个月来的最慢水平。 根据ISM的指标，库存扩张速度达到2024年10月以来最快。不过，库存情绪指标连续第三个月下降，表明认为库存过高的服务业企业数量减少。 供应商交付指数从一年高位回落，下跌2.3点。 部分ISM行业评论 重要分项指数方面： 12月共有11个行业实现增长，领涨的包括零售业、金融与保险业，以及住宿和餐饮服务业；有5个行业出现 ...

12月16日，日本政府2025财年补充预算案在国会参议院通过，为政府上月提出的大规模经济刺激计 划"开绿灯"。补充预算中超过60%的支出将通过新发行国债筹措，无疑将恶化日本财政状况，增加偿债 风险，其首相高市早苗的激进路线正将日本经济拖向债务深渊。 更需警惕的是，据日本共同社报道，日本政府正在协调的2026财年预算草案总支出预计将超过120万亿 日元，创下一般账户支出的新纪录，这显示日本正在财政无序扩张的路上狂奔。而2026财年防卫费预算 总额或将超过9万亿日元，再创历史新高，昭然若揭的"再军事化"企图严重威胁地区和平稳定。过去， 日元资产曾长期被视为避险资金，但若市场对日本经济失去信心，可能引发资本破坏性外逃，届时将引 发更为剧烈的市场波动。 （文章来源：经济日报） 上个月，日本内阁批准规模高达21.3万亿日元（约合1354亿美元）的经济刺激计划。为获得财源支持， 高市早苗积极推动国会批准补充预算。本次国会最终批准通过的补充预算规模达18.3万亿日元，较上年 度13.9万亿日元的补充预算案增加了31.7%。由于财政来源存在巨大不足，其中的11.7万亿日元将通过 发行新债来弥补，这引发市场对日本国家财政健康状 ...

綦鲁明(中国国际经济交流中心) 在特朗普政府对外采取加征关税政策、对内实施激进债务扩张策略的推动下，美国财政收支面临新的不 平衡，给美国自身及全球经济带来诸多不良影响。我们应采取积极有效的措施，予以化解和应对。 美国财政收支结构失衡诱因仍在持续积累 根据美国财政部和国会预算办公室(CBO)的数据，2025财年(2024年10月~2025年9月)联邦财政收入5.2万 亿美元，支出7.01万亿美元，预算赤字约1.8万亿美元。这是美国连续第六年赤字超1万亿美元。 从支出情况看，支出主要发生在社会保障福利、医疗保险和医疗补助3项强制性支出项目上。其他支出 较多的项目是债务利息、国防军费开支，其中债务利息支出突破万亿美元。 总体看，当前美国提高财政收入渠道仍然缺乏。关税收入虽有较大规模增长，但远不能覆盖其债务利息 支出，对缓解庞大债务压力的作用更是微乎其微。从中长期看，加征关税还会导致美国进口量下降，关 税实际收入可能不及预期，对财政的支持难以保证。同时，美国财政支出持续增长，特别是强制性支出 项目与债务利息支出规模将持续攀升。因此，美国财政收支失衡状况仍十分严重、难见好转。 美国财政收支风险带来诸多负面影响 当前美国 ...

近期美国就业市场呈现复杂图景，11月非农数据表现超预期但暗藏隐忧，政府停摆引发的数据收集机制调整，进一步加剧了市场对劳动力市场真实状况的讨 论。作为长期深耕美国经济监测与全球金融市场研判的专业机构，Wmax通过对就业数据的多维度交叉验证、统计机制的深度拆解及美联储政策逻辑的精准 推演，清晰洞察到数据波动、统计争议与政策抉择背后的核心博弈。美国经济的走向正变得愈发微妙，而Wmax始终以客观数据为支撑、专业框架为依托， 穿透市场迷雾提供可靠洞察。 超预期新增就业与隐现的疲软信号：Wmax数据穿透分析 11月美国就业数据呈现鲜明分化特征，Wmax通过对劳工统计局核心数据的专项解读发现，季调后非农就业人口新增6.4万人，超出市场普遍预期的5万人， 为劳动力市场注入短期暖意。但深入剖析后，多重隐忧浮出水面：Wmax测算显示，失业率录得4.6%，不仅高于预期的4.4%，更是2021年9月以来的最高水 平；平均每小时工资年率3.5%、月率0.1%，均低于市场预期且创下本轮周期最低增速，反映出就业质量与居民收入增长的疲软态势。 更值得关注的是历史数据修正与相邻月份的疲软表现，这一趋势被Wmax数据追踪体系精准捕捉：10月非农 ...

12月10日，省委副书记邢善萍在西安市未央区调研信访和基层治理工作，强调要深入学习贯彻党的 二十届四中全会精神和习近平总书记历次来陕考察重要讲话重要指示，认真落实省委十四届九次全会部 署，扎实推进信访问题源头治理和信访积案化解，持续提升基层治理效能，更好解决群众急难愁盼问 题、维护社会大局和谐稳定。 邢善萍来到未央宫街道办事处，了解信访案件办理进展，召开座谈会听取未央区信访和基层治理工 作汇报，强调要深刻认识信访工作的政治性和人民性，全面推进信访工作法治化，统筹各方力量化解城 改拆迁、不动产登记、劳动和社会保障等重点领域信访积案，切实维护群众合法权益。要坚持和发展新 时代"枫桥经验"，完善联系群众、收集民情、解决诉求常态化机制，加强社会矛盾源头排查、风险评 估、多元化解，从源头上控制信访增量。要持续打好党建引领基层治理硬仗，巩固新兴领域"两个覆 盖"成果，做细做实基层网格化治理，汇聚各类主体社会治理整体合力，加强对困境儿童、残疾人等弱 势群体的关心关爱和精准帮扶，坚决防止发生冲击社会道德底线的事件。 邢善萍还调研了西安城乡融合要素交易市场平台，听取平台建设、主要功能、运行机制、具体案例 介绍，强调要坚持政府主 ...

据介绍，为树立"有为者有位、实干者实惠"的风向标，去年以来，宝鸡市对承担重点工作和在处理 突发事件中作出突出贡献的公务员和公务员集体进行及时奖励。及时奖励适用于在完成党中央、国务院 决策部署或各级党委、政府中心工作、重要任务中勇于担当、积极作为、成绩突出的；工作成效显著， 被列为全国、全省典型，工作经验在省级以上推广的；在国家安全和人民群众生命财产安全受到威胁的 危急时刻敢于挺身而出、勇于斗争，作出重要贡献的等13种情形，并向基层和一线倾斜。 "为查获那起集群网络诈骗案，我和专案组同事十几天连续作战，最终抓获电信网络诈骗犯罪嫌疑 人33人，案值200多万元。事后，组织给予我嘉奖。这嘉奖既是鼓励，也是鞭策。"11月27日，宝鸡市眉 县公安局反诈中队民警朱晓亮说。 及时奖励突出实绩导向，市、县组织部门根据申请情况组成考察组，深入基层一线、关键环节，现 场考察拟奖励人员或集体政治表现、履职情况、工作成效，研判及时奖励的匹配度，以实绩论英雄；突 出急难险重，在防汛救火、重大项目建设、应急处突、专项工作重点任务中，凡表现突出、成效显著的 均纳入及时奖励范围，激励广大基层一线工作人员在关键时刻站得出来、顶得上去。 截至目 ...

美国政府停摆虽已结束，但其后遗症仍在持续发作。停摆带来的"数据迷雾"令美联储和市场难以抉择， 折射出美国经济治理中难以逾越的体制性困境。这恰如附骨之疽侵袭美国经济根基，并且不断威胁全球 经济稳定。 当地时间11月12日，持续43天的美国联邦政府停摆落幕。这次创下历史纪录的停摆，不仅每天给美国经 济带来巨额损失，更让美国劳工统计局和经济分析局等机构一度停止经济数据收集和发布工作，令美联 储和市场陷入"在浓雾中盲飞"的困境。可靠的经济数据是科学决策的基础。近年来，美联储放弃前瞻性 指引，转为依赖数据进行决策，因此政府停摆导致美联储等重要决策机构迅速陷入"数据真空"。尽管9 月非农就业、9月居民消费价格指数（CPI）等数据在停摆结束后陆续补发，但美联储在12月议息会议 前的参考数据依然不足，12月是否继续降息成为近期市场关注的焦点之一。 对企业而言，缺乏可靠的官方数据作为指引，其投资、招聘和定价策略的制定会面临更多不确定性。对 普通民众而言，信息真空容易引发信心波动和恐慌。而在国际层面，多国通常依赖美国数据来研判全球 最大经济体的走势，从而评估本国货币、贸易和通胀前景。有媒体在美国政府停摆期间称，美国经济数 据"断 ...

Core Insights - The US services sector activity returned to expansion in October, with the ISM services PMI recorded at 52.4%, up from 50% in September, marking the eighth consecutive month above the threshold [1] - The business activity index rose significantly to 54.3%, a 4.4 percentage point increase from September's 49.9%, indicating a return to expansion [1] - The new orders index surged to 56.2%, a rise of 5.8 percentage points, reflecting improved demand in the services sector [1] Industry Performance - Eleven industries experienced growth in October, including accommodation and food services, retail, wholesale, real estate, healthcare, and transportation and warehousing [2] - Six industries faced contraction, including arts and entertainment, management services, finance and insurance, public administration, and construction [2] Employment and Inventory Trends - The employment index remained in contraction at 48.2%, indicating weak hiring intentions despite a slight improvement from September [1] - The inventory index recorded at 49.5%, still in contraction, as businesses generally reduced inventory levels to manage demand and cost uncertainties [2] Price and Supply Chain Dynamics - The prices index rose to 70%, the highest level since October 2022, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the services sector, driven by tariffs affecting material and service costs [1] - The supplier deliveries index stood at 50.8%, indicating a continued slowdown in delivery speeds, which is typically associated with improved demand or supply chain constraints [1] Order Backlog and Economic Signals - The backlog of orders index dropped significantly to 40.8%, the second-lowest level since 2009, suggesting that businesses can manage current orders without significant delivery delays [2] - Feedback from industries indicated mixed economic signals, with some sectors experiencing seasonal demand improvements while others faced challenges from import restrictions and rising prices [2]

Core Insights - Indonesia's GDP growth for Q3 2025 is reported at 5.04%, aligning closely with market expectations of 5% but slightly lower than the previous quarter's growth of 5.12% [1] - Key drivers of economic growth include exports and government spending, with exports of goods and services increasing by 9.91% year-on-year [1] - Fixed asset investment and private consumption growth have slowed, with fixed asset investment growing by 5.04% and household final consumption expenditure increasing by 4.89% [1] Economic Performance - The trade surplus for September reached $4.34 billion, marking 65 consecutive months of surplus since May 2020 [1] - The quarterly economic growth rate is 1.43%, with the electricity and gas sector showing the highest growth at 5.42% [1] - Other sectors such as construction and manufacturing also showed positive growth, while public administration and financial services experienced contraction [1] Government Outlook - The Indonesian government maintains its GDP growth target for the year at 5.2%, supported by sound fiscal policies and expectations of loose monetary policy [2] - The Finance Minister has set a target for Q4 growth to exceed 5.5% [2]

Core Points - The article discusses the controversial announcement by former President Trump to build a $200 million ballroom at the White House amid a government shutdown and rising national debt, which has reached a record $38 trillion [1][6][11] - It highlights the growing skepticism regarding Trump's ability to lead the U.S. back to greatness, as his policies have led to increased national debt and a decline in global influence [3][9][22] - The article emphasizes the severe implications of the national debt, including the burden on every American citizen and the unsustainable fiscal policies that have resulted in a widening gap between government revenue and expenditure [11][13][14] Summary by Sections Trump's Announcement and Public Reaction - Trump's announcement of the ballroom construction during a government shutdown has sparked significant public backlash, with critics arguing that the White House should not be treated as a personal property [6][8] - Trump's claim of self-funding the project is viewed as a facade, with suspicions of political donations from business associates to support his initiatives [6][9] National Debt Crisis - The U.S. national debt has surged to $38 trillion, translating to a per capita debt of $111,000 for every American, including newborns [11] - The debt increased by $2 trillion in just two months, highlighting a rapid growth rate that outpaces average income growth [11][13] - The government's fiscal situation is dire, with mandatory spending on Social Security and Medicare expected to consume over one-third of the federal budget in the near future [11][14] Fiscal Policies and Economic Implications - Trump's tax cuts have resulted in a projected $4.5 trillion reduction in government revenue over the next decade, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [16][18] - Increased defense spending alongside reduced revenue has led to an unsustainable fiscal path, likened to a household maintaining luxury spending while losing income [18] - The Federal Reserve's shift towards accommodating fiscal policies to manage debt interest payments has created long-term risks for the economy [20] Global Influence and Trade Relations - Trump's "America First" policy has led to a decline in U.S. global influence, with withdrawal from international agreements and trade wars that have backfired, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [22][23] - The article suggests that the concept of a G2 world order, where the U.S. and China share global leadership, is becoming a reality due to a series of U.S. policy missteps [23]