Core Viewpoint - The gold market reached a historical high last week, driven by disappointing economic data that signals a potential restart of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The current gold price above $3600 per ounce reflects expectations of interest rate cuts and uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy, influenced by pressure from President Trump [1] - A significantly weak U.S. labor market and rising recession risks suggest that a new easing cycle could lead to a 100 basis point rate cut [1] - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut this week is only 5%, with the Fed's March economic forecast indicating only two rate cuts next year [2] Group 2: Analyst Perspectives on Gold Prices - Analysts believe that a 50 basis point cut could push gold prices above $3700, but caution that if Wall Street's expectations are unmet, it could pose short-term risks to gold [3] - The market has priced in about 70 basis points of cuts, which could lead to a hawkish reaction if the Fed's dot plot remains unchanged [4] - Despite potential short-term volatility, analysts maintain a bullish outlook on gold, viewing any price pullback as a buying opportunity [5][6] Group 3: Global Central Bank Actions - Other central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, are also expected to announce their monetary policy decisions this week, with the Canadian central bank anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points [6]